10 college football teams poised to disappoint this season

Last year’s college football season included several surprises, headlined by James Madison qualifying for the College Football Playoff. Texas A&M, Houston and Navy also had resurgent seasons that put them in CFP contention.

But following up and maintaining success can also be a challenge, and some of last season’s surprises will turn out to be this year’s disappointments.

While the transfer portal, NIL deals and revenue sharing can bring in players to reload rosters or help new coaches make quick turnarounds, it also results in some programs losing more talent than they can replenish.

After we listed 10 teams poised bounce back this season, here are 10 teams that could fall short of expectations this season, whether in contending for a CFP berth, winning their conferences or settling for a bowl game.
(2025: 9-4, 7-2 Big Ten)

Can a team be improved, yet also disappoint? Michigan might look better and work as a more cohesive team under new head coach Kyle Whittingham and his staff. However, the Wolverines’ win-loss record might not reflect that progress with a tough schedule that includes Oklahoma, Iowa, Penn State and Indiana at home, in addition to Oregon and Ohio State on the road at the end of the season.

Michigan will benefit from a strong running game and a defense that should play the run well. But quarterback Bryce Underwood needs to show he can be an impact player in a new offense.
(2025: 8-5, 4-4 SEC)

The Volunteers have to break in a new QB with George MacIntyre and Faizon Brandon competing for the starting job. Josh Heupel’s offense will likely put them in a position to succeed and an offensive line that returns four starters should provide better pass protection. But right tackle could be an issue.

Tennessee has a new defensive coordinator in Jim Knowles and the hope is that his system will improve the Vols’ pass rush and get more stops on third down. If not, a schedule that includes Texas, Alabama and LSU at home, along with Texas A&M on the road, could present problems.
(2025: 11-3, 7-1 ACC)

Road games at Florida State, SMU and Virginia Tech could present obstacles for the Cavaliers, who won a surprising 11 games last season and advanced to the ACC championship game.

The biggest hurdle for Tony Elliott’s squad will be overcoming the loss of 3,000-yard passer Chandler Morris at QB, 1,000-yard rusher J’Mari Taylor and the top four receivers. But if Virginia can’t develop a pass rush and a secondary retooled with transfers doesn’t mesh, that might create too steep a climb for repeating last season’s success.
(2025: 9-4, 5-4 Big Ten)

Five Big Ten road games, beginning with a visit to Columbus against Ohio State to open conference play, make the 2026 schedule a tough one for the Fighting Illini. A Friday night game at UCLA in Week 11 looms before a home matchup versus Iowa as well.

Head coach Bret Bielema must also replace QB Luke Altmyer, but transfer Katin Houser from East Carolina could ease that transition. Four new starters, including two transfers, on the offensive line could make improving last season’s rushing attack (1,795 yards, 11th in the Big Ten) and protecting Houser a difficult task. Houser also needs a No. 1 receiver to emerge.
(2025: 10-3, 6-3 Big 12)

Five road games in the Big 12, including visits to Texas Tech and Utah, could make the schedule a tough slog for Willie Fritz’s Cougars. Conner Weigman returning at QB and RB Makhi Hughes transferring from Tulane should make the ride smoother. But both may encounter difficulties with an offensive line featuring four new starters, including three transfers.

The defense was lit up and pushed around by the Red Raiders and West Virginia last season. With a thin secondary, average pass rush and rush defense that finished 38th in the nation last season, that could happen again.
(2025: 9-4, 5-4 Big Ten)

QB Demond Williams returns for head coach Jedd Fisch after a contentious offseason flirtation with LSU. But he needs a new top target after losing receiver Denzel Boston to the NFL. The offensive line brings back four starters, but the rushing attack needs to replace Jonah Coleman and Adam Mohammed. The defense could also be a work in progress with several losses in the secondary and along the defensive line.

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Washington head coach Jedd Fisch got quarterback Demond Williams Jr. for another season after a controversial flirtation with LSU. (AP Photo/Ryan Sun)

The Huskies avoid Ohio State and Michigan on their schedule, but facing Penn State, Indiana and Oregon in three of their last four games is a tough final stretch.
(2025: 11-2, 7-1 SEC)

The Aggies avoided Georgia, Alabama, Ole Miss and Oklahoma last season on their way to an 11-2 record (7-1 in the SEC). But this season’s schedule comes back at Texas A&M strong with an early conference road game at LSU, then ends with a stretch of road games at Alabama, South Carolina and Oklahoma with home matchups versus Tennessee and Texas.

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Texas A&M qualified for the College Football Playoff in head coach Mike Elko’s second season. Can the Aggies return this year?

QB Marcel Reed returns, but will play behind an offensive line with four new starters from the transfer portal. If they mesh quickly, the offense could be explosive. But if not, some strong talent at receiver (Ashton Bethel-Roman) and running back (Rueben Owens) could be squandered.
(2025: 8-5, 6-3 Big 12)

The Sun Devils lost starting QB Sam Leavitt to LSU and 1000-yard RB Raleek Brown to Texas in the transfer portal, while only returning nine starters overall. Head coach Kenny Dillingham also spent the beginning of the year dealing with the distraction of Michigan trying to hire him to replace Sherrone Moore as its head coach.

Arizona State has a tough road slate, beginning with a non-conference tilt at Texas A&M, followed by visits to Texas Tech, BYU, UCF and Arizona. The Sun Devils also face Kansas in London for a Week 3 matchup that could be discombobulating.
(2025: 11-2, 7-1 AAC)

The Midshipmen have a favorable 2026 schedule with UTSA looming as their toughest conference road game. Matchups late in the season versus Notre Dame (at Foxborough, Massachusetts) and at home vs. Memphis could be the difference in qualifying for the College Football Playoff or not.

Navy has to replace significant offensive production after losing QB Blake Horvath (2,780 yards, 28 TDs from scrimmage) and RB Eli Heidenreich (1,440 yards from scrimmage, 51 receptions). Head coach Brian Newberry’s team may also need to be as successful in close games. Navy tallied four wins by 3 points or fewer last season.
(2025: 12-2, 8-0 Sun Belt)

New head coach Billy Napier will attempt to continue the Dukes’ football success after Curt Cignetti (Indiana) and Bob Chesney (UCLA) moved on to Power Four programs. Napier finished 7-7 in his first season at Louisiana and 6-7 to open his four-season run at Florida. The Ragin’ Cajuns improved to 11-3 the following year, but the Gators went 5-7 in Napier’s second season.

Returning to a Group of Six program and surely eager to rebound from his lack of success in Gainesville, Napier is hoping for a resurgence in Harrisonburg. But he’ll be working with an offense retooled with transfers and a defense that has questions on the line and secondary.