Yankees, Rays fans guide with matchups, scouting reports, prediction

ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — The Rays beat out the Yankees for first in the AL East and won more games than anyone in the league with one of the lowest payrolls playing an entertaining throwback style of aggressive baseball. They have three stars at the top of their lineup. They have a .300 hitter in the middle who can fly.

They bunt for hits, squeeze runners home and move runners better than anyone. Their rotation and bullpen are deep. Their record in one-run games was the best in the majors.

The Rays have the Yankees respect.

The Yankees also think they’re the better team heading into a postseason showdown that seemed inevitable, a best-of-five Division Series between the two best teams in the league.

“At the end of the day, I think we played Tampa pretty well this year and I think we’re in a good spot,” Yankees ace Cam Schlittler said.

The Rays won the season series 7-6, but the Yankees feel they’re peaking at the right time with their four aces finally all healthy at the same time.

They’ll all be unleashed on the Rays. Gerrit Cole will start Saturday night’s Game 1 at Tropicana Field, Schlittler will go Game 2, then the Yankees will go to their lefties when the series moves to New York with Carlos Rodon probably starting Game 3 and Max Fried pitching Game 4 if there’s no sweep.

The Yankees’ Division Series roster will be deeper than the 26-man squad that just swept the Red Sox in a Wild Card Series with 9-0 and 9-2 romps. Ryan Weathers is off the IL and available out of the bullpen, but Aaron Judge still isn’t ready to return from his Grade 2 calf strain.

The Yankees’ one change from their their Wild Card Series roster was adding Weathers for an 11th pitcher and dropping infielder/outfielder Amed Rosario.

Second baseman Jazz Chisholm guaranteed the Yankees will win the series and Schlittler doubled down with “why would I disagree?”

The captain is also confident, regardless of his status.

“The Rays, they’ve got everything,” Judge said. “It’s a tough opponent. We’re up in the task. We saw them all year. We had our battles, and we’re just happy for the opportunity.”

Here is a fans’ guide to the Yankees-Rays Division Series with a look at how the teams match up and position-by-position scouting reports from an MLB scout:

Saturday, Oct. 3: Game 1, Yankees at Rays, 6:30 p.m. ET

Monday, Oct. 5: Game 2, Yankees at Rays, 8 p.m. ET

Wednesday, Oct. 7: Game 3, Rays at Yankees

Thursday, Oct. 8: Game 4, Rays at Yankees, if necessary

Thursday, Oct. 10: Game 5, Yankees at Rays, if necessary

2020 ALDS: Rays won series 3-2.

Rays: Won AL East with 98-64 record.

Yankees: Second in AL East with 93-68 record; Beat Red Sox in Wild Card Series 2-0.

Season series: Rays 7-6.

In New York: Yankees 4-2

In St. Petersburg, Fla.: Rays 5-2.

Game by game

April 10, Tropicana Field: Rays 5, Yankees 3. WP-Steven Matz (3-0); LP-Luis Gil (0-1); S-Bryan Baker (2). Yankees HR-Ben Rice (4); Rays HR-Yandy Diaz (3).

April 11, Tropicana Field: Rays 5, Yankees 3, 10 innings. WP-Cole Sulser (1-0); LP-David Bednar (0-2). Yankees HR-Austin Wells (1).

April 12, Tropicana Field: Rays 5, Yankees 4, WP-Drew Rasmussen (1-0); S-Mason Englert (1). Yankees HR-Aaron Judge (4).

May 22, Yankee Stadium: Rays 4, Yankees 2. WP-Ian Seymour (3-0); LP-Tim Hill (0-2).

May 24, Yankee Stadium: Yankees 2, Rays 0. WP-Tim Hill (1-2); LP-Kevin Kelly (3-2). Yankees HR-Cody Bellinger (9); Jazz Chisholm (8).

June 6, Tropicana Field: Yankees 5, Rays 1. WP-Cam Schlittler (9-5); LP-Griffin Jax (4-6). Yankees HR-Jose Caballero 2 (9, 10); Ben Rice (25).

June 7, Tropicana Field: Rays 6, Yankees 4. WP-Ian Seymour (6-1); LP-Will Warren (7-4); S-Bryan Baker (24). Yankees HR-Ben Rice (26); Rays HR-Victor Mesa Jr. (4); Hunter Feduccia (2); Yandy Diaz (13).

July 8, Tropicana Field: Rays 3, Yankees 0. WP-Shane McClanahan (8-5); LP-Gerrit Cole (3-4); S-Bryan Baker (25).

July 9, Tropicana Field: Yankees 12, Rays 4. WP-Ryan Yarbrough (1-0); LP-Drew Rasmussen (7-5). Yankees HR-Ben Rice 2 (27, 28); Austin Wells (5); Rays HR-Junior Caminero (27).

Sept. 22, Yankee Stadium: Game 1, Yankees 2, Rays 0. WP-Carlos Rodon (7-3); LP-Nick Martinez (15-5); S-David Bednar (35). Yankees HR-Cody Bellinger (17).

Sept. 22, Yankee Stadium: Game 2, Rays 6, Yankees 1. WP-Drew Rasmussen (16-5); LP-Max Fried (5-5).

Sept. 23, Yankee Stadium: Yankees 9, Rays 2. WP-Gerrit Cole (10-9); LP-Mason Englert (0-4). Rays HR-Cedric Mullins (15); Yankees HR-Ben Rice 2 (40, 41); George Lombard Jr. (6); Ryan McMahon (11).

Sept. 24, Yankee Stadium: Yankees 6, Rays 4. WP-Bradley Hanner (1-0); LP-Steven Matz (5-6). Yankees HR-Austin Wells (14); George Lombard Jr. (7).

OUT: RF Aaron Judge (calf); RHP Kervin Castro (elbow); RHP Fernando Cruz (UCL); RHP Clarke Schmidt (biceps).

PROBABLE: RHP Griffin Jax (back); LF Chandler Simpson (foot); RHP Tyler Wells (forearm).

QUESTIONABLE: LHP Garrett Cleavinger (forearm).

OUT: RHP Jonathan Heasley (elbow);2B Gavin Lux (shoulder);LHP Shane McClanahan (forearm); OF Jacob Melton (hamstring); RHP Ryan Pepiot (hip); RHP Edwin Uceta (shoulder).

Cody Bellinger, .213 average (10 for 47), 1 HR, 5 RBI, .522 OPS, 12 games.

Jose Caballero, .220 average (9 for 41), 2 HR, 8 RBI, .628 OPS, 13 games.

Jazz Chisholm, .229 average (8 for 35), 2 HR, 3 RBI, .643 OPS, 10 games.

Luis Garcia Jr., .158 average (3 for 19), 0 HR, 1 RBI, .516 OPS, 6 games.

Paul Goldschmidt, .083 average (2 for 24), 0 HR, 1 RBI, .310 OPS, 8 games.

Trent Grisham, .258 average (8 for 31), 0 HR, 1 RBI, .711 OPS, 9 games.

Spencer Jones, .182 average (2 for 11), 0 HR, 1 RBI, .523 OPS, 3 games.

George Lombard Jr., .313 average (5 for 16), 2 HR, 5 RBI, 1.063 OPS, 4 games.

Ryan McMahon, .286 average (8 for 28), 1 HR, 7 RBI, .750, 10 games.

Heliot Ramos, .214 average (6 for 28), 0 HR, 1 RBI, .493 OPS, 7 games.

Ben Rice, .356 average (16 for 45), 7 HR, 12 RBI, 1.320 OPS, 13 games.

Ali Sanchez, .300 average (3 for 10), 0 HR, 1 RBI, .573 OPS, 3 games.

Giancarlo Stanton, .143 average (1 for 7), 0 HR, 1 RBI, .476 OPS, 3 games.

Austin Wells, .138 average (4 for 29), 4 HR, 4 RBI, .816 OPS, 10 games.

Jonathan Aranda, .167 average (7 for 42), 0 HR, 7 RBI, .427 OPS, 12 games.

Junior Caminero, .204 average (10 for 49), 1 HR, 4 RBI, .565 OPS, 13 games.

Jonny DeLuca, .265 average (9 for 34), 0 HR, 2 RBI, .629 OPS, 10 games.

Yandy Diaz, .362 average (17 for 47), 2 HR, 10 RBI, .944 OPS, 12 games.

Nick Fortes, .226 average (7 for 31), 0 HR, 0 RBI, .563 OPS, 11 games.

Liam Hicks, .053 average (1 for 19), 0 HR, 1 RBI, .234 OPS, 6 games.

Jorge Mateo, .167 average (1 for 6), 0 HR, 0 RBI, .333 OPS, 3 games.

Victor Mesa Jr., .294 average (5 for 17), 1 HR, 2 RBI, .863 OPS, 5 games.

Cedric Mullins, .194 average (7 for 36), 1 HR, 1 RBI, .636 OPS, 11 games.

Richie Palacios, .318 average (7 for 22), 0 HR, 5 RBI, .739 OPS, 9 games.

Chandler Simpson, .304 average (14 for 46), 0 HR, 3 RBI, .739 OPS, 12 games.

Ryan Vilade, .095 average (2 for 21), 0 HR, 2 RBI, .295 OPS, 7 games.

Taylor Walls, .286 average (10 for 35), 0 HR, 3 RBI, .673 OPS, 11 games.

Ben Williamson, .227 average (5 for 22), 0 HR, 1 RBI, .593 OPS, 8 games.

RHP Gerrit Cole, 1-1, 2.50 ERA, 3 starts, 18 IP, 12 hits, 7 BB, 16 K.

RHP Cam Schlittler, 1-1, 2.81 ERA, 3 starts, 16 IP, 14 hits, 3 BB, 21 K.

LHP Carlos Rodon, 1-0, 0.00 ERA, 1 start, 8 IP, 3 hits, 0 BB, 8 K.

LHP Max Fried, 0-1, 4.30 ERA, 2 starts, 14.2 IP, 12 hits, 2 BB, 10 K.

RHP Drew Rasmussen, 2-1, 2.86 ERA, 4 starts, 22 IP, 14 hits, 4 BB, 26 K.

RHP Freddy Peralta, 0-0, 5.40 ERA, 1 start, 5 IP, 2 hits, 6 BB, 4 K.

RHP Nick Martinez, 0-1, 2.16 ERA, 3 starts, 16.2 IP, 19 hits, 5 BB, 12 K.

LHP Ian Seymour, 2-0, 2.45 ERA, 5 games, 2 starts, 14.2 IP, 8 hits, 0 BB, 21 K.

RHP Griffin Jax, 0-1, 4.26 ERA, 3 games, 1 start, 6.1 IP, 1 hit, 3 BB, 13 K.

Yankees: Luis Garcia Jr. (.277, 30 HR, 92 RBI, .831 OPS).

Rays: Jonathan Aranda (.274, 22 HR, 92 RBI, 792 OPS).

Scout’s take: “Both teams have impact players at first base. I love Aranda, but the Yankees have held him down all season with their great pitching. If they do that in this series, the Yankees will be in real good shape. Garcia’s had a great year. He’s a free swinger who keeps getting better as a hitter. He capitalizes on mistakes in the zone.”

Advantage: Yankees.

Yankees: Jazz Chisholm (.231, 19 HR, 55 RBI).

Rays: Richie Palacios (.235, 10 HR, 57 RBI, .704) vs. RHP; Ben Williamson (.238, 3 HR, 26 RBI) vs. LHP.

Scout’s take: “Jazz is playing for a contract and I think he badly wants to win a championship. He’s motivated. Look at what he did against Boston. He didn’t play against the lefty in Game 1, then he comes out in Game 2 and gets a couple hits with a walk. Tampa is going to be running out a bunch of righties at the Yankees this series, so Jazz will probably be in there and I can see him having a big series. Palacios and Williamson are ordinary role guys. That’s all they are.”

Advantage: Yankees.

Yankees: George Lombard Jr. (.237, 7 HR, 22 RBI, .699 OPS).

Rays: Taylor Walls (.222, 2 HR, 36 RBI, 21 SB, .607 OPS).

Scout’s take: “Lombard is 21 and he comes out against Boston hitting .500 with a home run in his first two playoff games. He was poised. He had good at-bats. Walls is one of the best defensive shortstops in baseball, but I don’t like him one bit because this is a cocky guy who’s never hit. If Walls played anywhere else, he would not be playing every day.”

Advantage: Yankees.

Yankees: Ryan McMahon (.213, 11 HR, 31 RBI, .635 OPS) & Jose Caballero (.231, 14 HR, 51 RBI, .655 OPS).

Rays: Junior Caminero (.276, 42 HR, 101 RBI, .885 OPS).

Scout’s take: “Caminero is an emerging superstar. He’s 23 with back-to-back 40-homer seasons. I don’t see the Yankees letting Caminero beat them. Boone won’t make the same mistake Boston did with Ben Rice in the Wild Card Series. Pitch around Caminero because he doesn’t miss a pitch in the zone. You know what you’re getting with McMahon when he’s in there. He gives you good third-base play, but that’s it.”

Advantage: Rays.

Yankees: Heliot Ramos (.245, 13 HR, 46 RBI, .716 OPS).

Rays: Victor Mesa Jr. (.260, 14 HR, 34 RBI, .825 OPS).

Scout’s take: “Ramos can hit left-handed pitching, but he’ll be facing mostly righties in this series, so what kind of impact can he make? Mesa is fearless, he can hit the fastball and he’s a solid defensive player.”

Advantage: Rays.

Yankees: Spencer Jones (.245, 11 HR, 40 RBI, .742).

Rays: Cedric Mullins (.205, 15 HR, 48 RBI, .628) vs. RHP; Jonny DeLuca (.266, 11 HR, 50 RBI, 17 SB, .728 OPS vs. LHP.

Scout’s take: “You have to put up with some punchouts with Jones, but he has a chance to hit it out of the ballpark and he plays decent defense. DeLuca is an underrated player with some pop, but I’m not a Mullins fan anymore. I used to be. Mullins doesn’t run like he used to. He’s a good outfielder, but not as good as he once was.”

Advantage: Yankees.

Yankees: Cody Bellinger (.264, 17 HR, 73 RBI, .768 OPS).

Rays: Chandler Simpson (.306, 0 HR, 38 RBI, 46 SB, .689 OPS).

Scout’s take: “I like ’em both. Cody’s the full package and I really like Simpson. Cody rose to the occasion against Boston. He knows he had to do more with Judge out, and he did. He’s also the best defensive left fielder in the American League, maybe all of baseball. Simpson is contact oriented. He stays within himself. He doesn’t try to hit the ball out of the ballpark and he’s the fastest guy in the game. He’s a good table setter. I’d take either of those guys on my team.”

Advantage: Even.

Yankees: Austin Wells (.187, 14 HR, 32 RBI, .624 OPS).

Rays: Liam Hicks (.284, 18 HR, 82 RBI, .801 OPS).

Scout’s take: “Wells is riding a wave. He had the terrible first half, then he took a little time to get healthy. He was a different hitter in the second half and just had a heck of a Wild Card Series. He’s become a pretty decent catcher. I remember watching Wells in the Fall League after he was drafted in the first round because of his bat. Well, he proved me wrong. He does a good job behind the plate. He’s part of the reason why Yankees pitchers had the best ERA in baseball this year. The Rays getting Hicks from Miami added another big threat to a lineup that was very top heavy with Diaz, Aranda and Caminero hitting one, two, three. Hicks is a decent catch-and-throw receiver, too. This was a big get for Tampa because they’ve never had a catcher who can hit. Hicks brings a lot of offense. He’s the full package.”

Advantage: Even.

Yankees: Ben Rice (.264, 41 HR, 97 RBI, .897).

Rays: Yandy Diaz (.293, 22 HR, 85 RBI, .825).

Scout’s take: “Both of these guys are big-time game changers. Rice has more power, but Diaz is a better all-around hitter. You can tell Rice went to Dartmouth because he’s a smart hitter. He looks for certain lanes. If the pitch isn’t in that zone, he won’t swing until he gets to two strikes. That’s his kryptonite right there. I’d pitch around him every time he’s up. Let Rice get himself out swinging at a bad pitch or walk him. Let somebody else beat you. If the other guys beat me, so be it. Diaz is a clutch hitter who has the ability to control the strike zone. This guy knows his game as a hitter. He has power, but he doesn’t try to hit homers.”

Advantage: Even.

Yankees: LHP Carlos Rodon (7-3, 2.67); RHP Cam Schlittler (14-6, 1.95); LHP Max Fried (5-5, 2.80); RHP Gerrit Cole (10-9, 3.61).

Rays: RHP Drew Rasmussen (16-5, 2.67); RHP Freddy Peralta (10-11, 4.42); RHP Nick Martinez (15-6, 3.10); LHP Ian Seymour (9-7, 4.21); RHP Griffin Jax (8-10, 3.53).

Scout’s take: “Schlittler is the best pitcher in the league and all four of their starters can get into the seventh inning. How many teams can say that? Not many. That’s a damn good playoff rotation. Shane McClanahan’s injury really hurts Tampa. The Rays still have a bunch of No. 2 and No. 3 starters who can really pitch, but McClanahan is their big-game starter, their ace. He’d give them a left-hander to set the tone against a Yankees lineup that’s usually filled with left-handed bats. This is a big loss for Tampa.”

Advantage: Yankees.

Yankees: RHP David Bednar (7-3, 2.47. 35 saves); RHP Paul Blackburn (7-3, 1.69); LHP Brent Headrick (7-4, 2.18); RHP John Schreiber (5-2, 3.28); RHP Will Warren (11-6, 3.92), LHP Ryan Weathers (5-8, 3.60); Ryan Yarbrough (2-1, 3.69).

Rays: RHP Bryan Baker (4-2, 1.44, 41 saves); LHP Garrett Cleavinger (4-4, 4.79); LHP Cam Booser (1-0, 1.98); RHP Kevin Kelly (6-4, 2.44); LHP Steven Matz (6-6, 5.39); RHP Cole Sulser (1-0, 4.31); RHP Tyler Wells (5-2, 2.38).

Scout’s take: “There’s a lot of good arms on both teams. I’m amazed what the Yankees are getting out of Blackburn. A couple of years ago, I had interest in him for my team, then I fell out of favor when his velo dropped. Now Blackburn is overpowering. A key for the Rays will be their lefties. They don’t have anyone like Headrick, but you better believe they’ll use all of them this series to try neutralizing all those left-handed hitters in the Yankees lineup. Booser has been effective, but he’s more of a touch-and-feel guy. He’s not going to strike Ben Rice out in a big spot. Another thing, all of Tampa’s left-handed relievers are prone to mistakes left over the plate, especially Matz. If they do that, Tampa’s in trouble.”

Advantage: Even.

Yankees: Paul Goldschmidt (.252, 18 HR, 52 RBI); CF Trent Grisham (.211, 18 HR, 59 RBI); C Ali Sanchez (.244, 1 HR, 8 RBI, .577 OPS), Anthony Volpe (.245, 3 HR, 28 RBI, .658 OPS).

Rays: C Nick Fortes (.258, 6 HR, 35 RBI); INF Jorge Mateo (.203, 5 HR, 18 RBI, 19 SB, 559 OPS); INF/OF Ryan Vilade (.245, 11 HR, 45 RBI, .750 OPS); 2B Richie Palacios/Ben Williamson; OF Cedric Mullins/ Jonny DeLuca.

Scout’s take: “The Yankees have power, athleticism and some guys who can play different positions on their bench. Aaron Boone will be able to force Kevin Cash into some moves that he really doesn’t want to make because the Yankees have more of a surplus off the bench.”

Advantage: Yankees.

Yankees: Aaron Boone (970-575; 8 playoff berths, 1 pennant, 9th season).

Rays: Kevin Cash, (994-848, 6 playoff berths, 1 pennant, 12th season).

Scout’s take: “I’ve been a big Aaron Boone fan since he was in college at USC. I liked his game and his makeup. He’s become a really good manager in a big market to the point where I think Brian Cashman isn’t forcing the Yankees to live and die over analytics. From the games I’ve watched, I think Boone has more leeway to manage with his head than he did in past seasons. He does a great job year after year getting teams loaded with injuries into the playoffs and usually winning series. I like Cash, too. I like that he bunts a lot. Tampa has to play that way because they don’t have the power that the Yankees and a lot of other clubs do. I think there’s some micromanaging there with Cash because of all this inundated analytics BS that Tampa does. It works for them, but they have not brought home a world championship.”

Advantage: Yankees.

Yankees: 4.59 per game (9th MLB, 3rd AL).

Rays: 4.54 per game (12th MLB, 4th AL).

Yankees: .235 (26th MLB, 12th AL).

Rays: .258 (2nd MLB, 1st AL).

Yankees: 226 (2nd MLB, 2nd AL).

Rays: 169 (22nd MLB, 11th AL).

Yankees: 153 (6th MLB, 2nd AL).

Rays: 164 (T-2nd MLB, 1st AL).

Yankees: .720 (11th MLB, 4th AL).

Rays: .728 (8th MLB, 2nd AL).

Yankees: .733 (8th MLB, 4th AL).

Rays: .677 (25th MLB, 11th AL).

Yankees: .714 (18th MLB, 9th AL).

Rays: .752 (4th, MLB, 1st AL).

Yankees: .983 (T-22ndMLB, T-14thAL).

Rays: .984 (T-19th MLB, T-11th AL).

Yankees: 96 (22nd MLB, 14th AL).

Rays: 92 (21st MLB, 13th AL).

Yankees: 3.24 (1st MLB, 1st AL).

Rays: 3.70 (7th MLB, 4th AL).

Yankees: 3.30 ERA (1st MLB, 1st AL).

Rays: 3.51 ERA (3rd MLB, 2nd AL).

Yankees: 3.00 (2nd MLB, 2nd AL).

Rays: 3.99 (14th MLB, 8th AL).

Randy Miller: The Rays had a better regular season, but their struggles against left-handed pitching will haunt them. … Yankees in 4.

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