Xander Bogaerts can be better than this

During his time as the control partner of the San Diego Padres, the late Peter Seidler was aggressive with spending money to build a core of players for the team he loved. Signing Manny Machado to a long-term contract and then extending him when he had an opt-out option, Seidler committed a total of $470 million to Machado for his contract covering 2019 through 2033.

When Seidler and general manager A.J. Preller recognized the exciting talent of the Padres’ young shortstop, Fernando Tatis Jr., they negotiated a 14-year contract extension that committed him to the Padres through 2034 and pays $340 million.

Infielder Jake Cronenworth, the Padres defensive specialist at multiple positions, was given a much smaller contract at seven years and $80 million to anchor the infield while being able to play all four infield spots. Cronenworth’s contract presently looks to be a bargain for a player that will never be a superstar but is steady and reliable while playing excellent defense at multiple spots.

The team will likely believe that all of those contracts were justified in the long run. Even Machado, who is on a Hall-of-Fame career track, was a defensible decision based on his contract being the one that established the organization as being serious about contending and his standing as the team’s leader on and off the field.

The head scratcher, the player signed to a contract that seemed a massive overpay at the time and even more so now, is shortstop Xander Bogaerts. There is no denying he was a superstar in his time with the Boston Red Sox, earning multiple World Series championships. When his contract ended with Boston, the Padres outbid everyone else in the running. The Red Sox infamously offered Bogaerts a 4-year, $90 million contract, then upped it to six years and $160 million. The Cubs were rumored to have offered him a multi-year, $200 million contract.

The Padres blew all those offers out of the water, signing Bogaerts, 30-years-old at the time, to an 11-year, $280 million deal that carried through the 2033 season, when Bogaerts will be 41 years old.

It was a puzzling decision by Seidler and the Padres. They already had multiple shortstops on the roster with Tatis being a blooming superstar. In his first year with the Padres, Bogaerts hit a respectable .285/.350/.440 with 19 home runs and 58 RBI. That 2023 season was his best as a Padre.

Since the 2023 season, Bogaerts has declined offensively each year. Some of that can be attributed to injuries, with a broken shoulder and broken foot affecting his 2024 and 2025 seasons.

So far in 2026, Xander Bogaerts has been relatively healthy. With a hamstring scare and a ball fouled off his foot in August, Bogaerts left those games but was never held from a game or placed on the injured list. Despite having no significant injury this season, Bogaerts is having his worst season as an MLB player. At 33-years-old, Bogaerts is at the back end of his peak production as a professional player. A players’ peak years are considered to be between the age of 27 and 32 with production tailing significantly after that age.

With seven years remaining on his contract, Bogaerts is in the declining years of his career. With a look at his stats, it appears his hitting is the first to go.

Bogaerts started the season strong in 2026. In April, he hit .292/.382/.472 with five home runs and 15 RBI. He had a good spring, hitting .286 with a .819 OPS, so his strong start was very encouraging. Unfortunately, May brought expectations back down to earth. Hitting .204 in May and .211 in June, Bogaerts managed just six extra-base hits in 51 games.

July was even worse, hitting .167 with a .523 OPS in 24 games. In 27 games in August, Bogaerts hit .212 with a .674 OPS, with seven extra-base hits and 11 RBI.

For September’s 10 games, Bogaerts is pushing his numbers up as the team is making a playoff push. Hitting .314/.415/.371 with a .786 OPS, Bogaerts is following a trend in his career of improving his numbers during the last month of the season.

If there is one silver lining to the Bogaerts situation, it is his defense at shortstop. After switching him to second base for 85 games in 2024 to accommodate Ha-Seong Kim at shortstop, Bogaerts has been their primary shortstop. From 2023 through this season, Bogaerts has been in the 80th percentile or above in Outs Above Average as a shortstop. In 2025, he finished in the 93rd percentile with seven OAA. He has improved his arm strength during his time with the Padres, even though it continues to be below average.

It seems unlikely that a drastic improvement in his offense will occur at this point in his career. Bogaerts, an admired leader on the team, will need to work over the next offseason to evaluate what needs to change. Looking at his Baseball Savant page, Bogaerts has not lost bat speed or exit velocity over his time with the Padres. He does not strike out more or chase more than in past years. At best, his stats portray an average to below-average major league hitter. That is borne out in his status as the No. 8 hitter in the Padres lineup, a spot unfamiliar to a player with Bogaerts’ past pedigree.

Machado made swing changes this past offseason in order to improve his bat speed and exit velocity, he has not recovered from the slump those changes threw him into. He is also having the worst year of his career in batting average numbers. Machado is still the best power hitter on the team and leads in RBI, but players need to show caution when reworking their swings as they age.

Bogaerts can still be a valuable player for the Padres if he can improve his offense to average. His underlying numbers indicate he still can do that. Bogaerts will have to make the adjustments all aging players must make.

It is too late to live up to the contract he signed. Both Bogaerts and Machado will long be done as players before the Padres stop paying them. What Bogaerts needs to focus on is adjusting his game so he can be a contributor for as long as possible.