Will Puka Nacua be first $50 million receiver?

The Los Angeles Rams are content with letting Puka Nacua play this season without a contract extension, with the 2027 franchise tag as a fail safe plan, but is it a decision that will cost them millions of dollars in future cap space? Based on early training camp reports of Nacua looking better than ever, and his motivation to prove that he will not become a headache again, the Rams’ hesitancy to commit now could end up leading to the first $50 million per year receiver contract in history.

As opposed to attempting to settle with Nacua for $43 million in average salary today. Is it worth it?

NFL Networks’ Ian Rapoport reported this week that Nacua is “focused on improving off the field” and that a “contract extension is more likely to be a discussion for next season”.

If the Rams allow Nacua to go through the entire 2027 season without a new deal, he will become an unrestricted free agent in 2027.

The 2027 franchise tag for a receiver is projected to be $31.5 million. If that sounds like a discount to you because of the average annual salary of Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($42 million), it’s not.

Because the Rams can’t spread that $31 million over multiple seasons. They have to swallow it whole in 2027, a year in which they have too many free agents to sign.

Fans should expect that the franchise tag would only be used in case of emergency, and as a last-ditch effort to buy time before coming to an extension agreement with Nacua before the deadline. But spending $31 million in cap space on Nacua next season would not be the plan.

The Saints signed Chris Olave to a four-year, $132 million contract on Thursday, but right now Nacua would be worth much more than that. Nacua would instead focus on the four-year, $168.6 million deal signed by Smith-Njigba. That’s more of the benchmark for an elite, All-Pro caliber receiver.

For now.

Next season, Justin Jefferson is due to make $49 million in salary. The most-ever to a receiver. Which is probably while the Minnesota Vikings could go back to the table to talk extension again, three years after extending Jefferson to a four-year, $140 million deal. Money that looks paltry for a player of Jefferson’s caliber.

Assuming Jefferson gets better QB play to work with in 2026, he could end up having a career-year. Maybe even challenging for 2,000 yards. If that happens, Jefferson will be trying to get a four-year, $200 million contract. The first receiver to ever make $50 million per season.

If the Rams wait to pay Nacua after Jefferson’s extension, and Nacua has a career-year, the Rams may end up paying Nacua $7-$10 million more per season than they could get him for right now.

To nobody’s surprise, early camp reports about Nacua have been glowing.

Coming off of a season in which he led the NFL in catches (129) despite missing a game, Nacua could set a new franchise record for receiving yards in a single year. Matthew Stafford has no reason not to do it.

Nacua also says that he recognizes his off-field mistakes, takes responsibility, and will look to grow from this experience. And who wouldn’t? Nacua’s mistakes could end up costing him hundreds of millions in earnings if he doesn’t put it in the past and keep it there.

For an offense so clearly designed to feed him the ball, Puka Nacua looks on track for a career-best season and he will still only be 25 when it’s time for a franchise tag in 2027.

Possibly. If Nacua comes out in Week 1 against the 49ers and puts on a show for 200 yards, the time for discounts is over. All it takes is a hot start and Nacua will have $50 million per year in his sights.

The Rams can tag him and try to pay him $31.5 million for one season, but with so many free agents, can they afford to do that? And if Nacua has another great season in 2027, the tag in 2028 will be beyond Nacua’s wildest dreams. They’ll end up paying him even more.

However, there is the risk that Nacua will get injured, or have more immaturity issues, or simply not be worth the $50 million AAV price tag.

There are no easy answers here, but there is one predictable outcome: With how he’s looking so far this camp, Puka Nacua can line himself up for a post-Jefferson pay day over $200 million. How much longer can the Rams afford to wait?