Wike vs APC governors: Analysts weigh in on Tinubu’s options

A Kano-based political affairs commentator, Comrade Kabiru Sani Mai Kwanuka, says FCT Minister Nyesom Wike has made a significant contribution to President Bola Tinubu’s political fortunes and should therefore not be treated as less important than APC governors ahead of the 2027 elections.

Mai Kwanuka was speaking against the backdrop of the growing disagreement between Wike and governors elected on the platform of the All Progressives Congress over the minister’s proposed Rainbow Coalition.

The APC Governors’ Forum recently said its members would not support any political arrangement that could weaken the APC or its candidates in the 2027 elections.

Its chairman, Imo State Governor Hope Uzodimma, said the governors’ campaign commitment remained focused on APC candidates at all levels.

Wike, however, has maintained that his Rainbow Coalition is specifically designed to mobilise support for Tinubu’s re-election and does not constitute an alliance with the APC.

He has also insisted that his support for Tinubu does not prevent the PDP from fielding candidates for governorship and legislative elections in 2027.

According to Mai Kwanuka, Wike’s role in the divisions within the PDP should also be taken into consideration when assessing his importance to the Tinubu camp.

“Politically, Wike has made a contribution that no APC governor has made. He singlehandedly helped weaken the PDP to the point where it has lost virtually all of its governors.”

He argued that Wike’s influence dates back to the 2022 PDP presidential primary, which he lost to Atiku Abubakar, and the subsequent political crisis within the party.

In an interview with DAILY POST, Mai Kwanuka questioned what became of some of the PDP governors and political structures that once formed a significant part of the opposition.

He asked: “Where is Governor Bala Mohammed of Bauchi today? Where is Seyi Makinde of Oyo? Where is Ademola Adeleke of Osun?”

He said Wike’s political value to Tinubu should not be measured only by his membership of the PDP or his position as FCT minister, but also by his capacity to mobilise support across political boundaries.

“There is something Wike has done that is greater than what many APC governors have done. If you remember, Wike brought Rivers State to Tinubu, something many governors could not achieve, and Rivers is extremely important because of the number of votes in the state,” he said.

Wike’s Rivers influence

The comments come as Wike’s political structure in Rivers remains central to the debate over the Rainbow Coalition.

Wike has repeatedly said that his objective is to mobilise votes for Tinubu rather than to determine who wins governorship or legislative contests in individual states. He has also argued that political parties should remain free to contest those elections. 

Mai Kwanuka therefore believes Tinubu may have reasons to maintain a working relationship with Wike, even while keeping close ties with the APC governors.

“Wike should be given priority over some of the APC governors because there are governors who are not even certain of winning elections in their own states, let alone being able to secure a large number of votes for the president,” he said.

His comments come amid a broader political argument around Tinubu’s 2027 coalition: whether support for the president should be organised exclusively through the APC or whether politicians outside the party should be allowed to mobilise independently for the presidential contest.

Tinubu may avoid taking sides – Sufi

Another Kano political scientist, Dr Kabiru Said Sufi, believes President Tinubu may be reluctant to openly take sides in the disagreement between Wike and the APC governors.

Dr Sufi told DAILY POST that the president could instead maintain cordial relations with both camps while allowing Wike to remain within his political orbit and accepting whatever support the former Rivers governor is prepared to offer.

“Tinubu might want to play safe and decide not to align with either of the two camps. He may decide to maintain relationships with both the governors’ camp and Wike’s camp.”

Sufi said Wike’s political influence extends beyond Rivers State and that his ability to mobilise political and financial resources could make his support relevant to Tinubu’s 2027 campaign.

He also said some senior APC members may not have been entirely comfortable with Wike’s continued membership of the PDP while serving as a senior minister in an APC-led federal government.

“Initially, they were happy that Wike had created divisions within the ranks of the PDP, while he still maintained that he remained within the PDP,” Sufi said.

“But it seems that some of them were not comfortable with the fact that he had not moved to the APC. As an APC person, he has still remained within another party other than the APC, while occupying a very important and sensitive position as Minister of the FCT,” he added.

The disagreement has intensified in recent days, with the APC governors rejecting political arrangements they believe could undermine the party, while Wike insists that his Rainbow Coalition is focused on Tinubu’s presidential re-election and is separate from the APC

The competing positions have created a debate over how support for Tinubu’s 2027 presidential bid should be mobilised, particularly where such support intersects with contests for governorship and legislative seats.