Why the Bears will or won't beat the Packers in Week 5

The Chicago Bears won their last two games against the Green Bay Packers last season, including a wild-card playoff matchup. Chicago has looked much better than the Packers through the first four games, but everything goes out the window when these two rivals face off.

This game will also mean a little more to the Bears after legendary Hall of Fame tight end and Super Bowl-winning head coach Mike Ditka passed away on Friday. Chicago will be starting quarterback Tyson Bagent, as they try to win this game for Ditka and win their third straight game against Green Bay, which would be their longest win streak against the Packers since 2005-2006.

Here is what it would take for the Bears to win this game and what it would take for Chicago to lose this game to the Packers.  

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The Bears will win this game and get to 4-1 because of the run game on both sides of the ball. Green Bay has been one of the worst teams against the run this season while Chicago has been one of the best teams in the NFL running the football. They will be without Kyle Monangai, who is coming off a game where he had 146 rushing yards. However, the Bears still have D’Andre Swift and Roschon Johnson will probably get more action. Chicago should be able to control the line of scrimmage the entire time they are on offense.

They will also control the line of scrimmage on defense. Not only have the Packers struggled containing the run, but they have also had problems running the ball. Green Bay has yet to score a rushing touchdown this season and have not had a game with at least 100 rushing yards yet this year. Chicago will stuff the run and force Packers quarterback Jordan Love into a few poor decisions, perhaps resulting in a turnover or two since Green Bay’s offense has at least one turnover in every game this season.

The Bears will not win this game because they get in their own way with penalties and allow Green Bay’s offense to have some explosives in the passing game. Chicago has been good about not getting penalties in the past two games with nine total penalties. However, penalties have been an issue before with 20 penalties in the first two games. Additionally, in their regular season win against the Packers last season, the Bears had 10 penalties. Chicago has a tendency to have some untimely penalties at times in an emotionally-driven rivalry game like this, the Bears cannot afford to have those penalties.

While the defense has been much better in the past three games, they struggled with giving up explosives in their season opener against the Carolina Panthers. A blown coverage by Tyrique Stevenson also allowed the New York Jets to score a touchdown last week. If there is one area where the Bears may be vulnerable against the Packers, it is in the secondary and potentially allowing Green Bay’s playmakers like Christian Watson and Tucker Kraft to get some chunk yards and keep the chains moving.

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This article originally appeared on Bears Wire: Why the Bears will or won’t beat the Packers in Week 5