Why Justin Herbert, 3 other NFL stars won't be traded: Follow the money

As the NFL’s Nov. 10 deadline for teams to execute trades draws closer, the ever-industrious rumor mill is bound to generate some fanciful suppositions, suggestions and theories. But in a football reality governed by a salary cap and contract parameters, some of the proposed deals floating around in the ether need to be taken with a serious grain of salt.

Some contracts, even for superstar-caliber performers, are constructed in such a way to make them transferrable − former Titans’ DT Jeffery Simmons’ arrangement a prime example. Yet some teams simply can’t afford to take on certain players’ pacts and, conversely, there are other squads that would be extremely challenged to move some of their own guys due to the cap consequences.

These four stars are highly unlikely to be dealt due to their contractual circumstances:

Philadelphia Eagles RB Saquon Barkley

One of Philly’s team captains, he valiantly played though his hamstring injury – and hurt his back in the process – while trying to help salvage the Eagles’ season in Monday night’s loss to the Dallas Cowboys. Given Barkley is well shy of 100%, teams in need of a back who can alter the scales might be better off pursuing the Indianapolis Colts’ Jonathan Taylor or Tennessee Titans‘ Tony Pollard.

But if Barkley does wind up on the trade block, he’s going to be hard for EVP/GM Howie Roseman to spin off anyway. Trading Barkley would mean a dead cap charge of approximately $26 million for the Eagles in 2027 – when the recent trades of WR A.J. Brown and OL Cam Jurgens alone are already going to cost Philadelphia $42 million in dead money. Adding to that figure, especially given the uncertainty surrounding QB Jalen Hurts, may not be a pragmatic choice for Roseman … unless he gets an unlikely godfather offer for the 2024 Offensive Player of the Year.

“You can’t control it,” Barkley said Monday night of the trade speculation starting to billow around the team. “That’s part of the business.”

THREE CONTRACTS THAT ARE EASY TO MOVE: Including Maxx Crosby’s huge deal

Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert

Whether from a financial, political or public relations standpoint, moving a franchise quarterback in the prime of his career is almost certainly not going to be easy. Yet ESPN NFL insider Adam Schefter floated the notion of a Herbert trade earlier this month while simultaneously reporting the Bolts wouldn’t do it. (Talk about generating your own content.)

“Let me be very clear about this. We have never even discussed that idea,” Schefter reported a Chargers source told him. “The sentence ‘Should we trade Justin Herbert?’ has never once been uttered in our organization, nor will it be.”

Schefter had theorized that a Herbert trade would involve multiple first-round picks, strongly implying the Cleveland Browns or New York Jets might be potential suitors, though he never named any specific potential buyers.

Yet even if the Chargers actually wanted to chart a new direction at quarterback, they’d incur a cap hit of more than $50 million in 2027 – not necessarily out of bounds for a QB, especially one who’s 28. But they’d also need to get a king’s ransom in return – and from a team in position to absorb the $36 million Herbert is owed next year, to say nothing of the $52 million he stands to make in 2028. That’s quite a few (large) moving parts.

Houston Texans DE Danielle Hunter and WR Nico Collins

The Texans front office tried to send a message to the locker room, despite the team’s 0-4 start, by acquiring WR Marvin Harrison Jr. from the Arizona Cardinals a few weeks ago. Then the team dropped to 0-4 at Reliant Stadium – and 2-5 overall – with Sunday’s overtime loss to J.J. McCarthy and the New York Giants. Does that mean Houston goes into sell mode, particularly given the team’s propensity to catch fire after bad starts under coach DeMeco Ryans? Who’s to say?

Yet if GM Nick Caserio entertains offers for veteran stars like Hunter and Collins, exchanges wouldn’t necessarily be easy to consummate. Both Hunter, 32, and Collins, 27, are Pro Bowl talents who seem like core members of the Texans, though Hunter’s age is clearly advancing. Both are under contract though the 2027 season and have weighty, fully guaranteed base salaries next year – $30.2 million for Hunter and $28.5 million for Collins. They also both carry three void years to conclude their respectivve deals – meaning a trade of Hunter would accelerate well over $40 million of dead money onto the Texans’ 2027 cap, while Collins would create a $33.2 million charge next year. And while those are probably prohibitive numbers at their respective positions under ideal circumstances, they’re complete non-starters when considering that, per Over The Cap, Houston is already overspent by more than $40 million on the ’27 cap, a figure Caserio must bring into compliance by next March – and that almost surely means keeping both Collins and Hunter.

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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Why Justin Herbert, 3 other NFL stars won’t be traded: Follow the money