The 2026 season of Major League Baseball and its oddities will be looked back on for years to come.
There’s an extraordinary power difference between leagues. There could potentially be the first sub-.500 playoff team ever. There’s also a blatantly terrible, yet potentially historic, division race among everything else the 2026 season has challenged.
The American League West can make baseball history in September. The worst division winner ever belongs to the 2005 San Diego Padres. That Bruce Bochy-led club finished 82-80, good enough to take the National League West by five games.
Entering the final month of the MLB season, the Houston Astros lead the AL West with a fragile 70-68 record. They’re two full games up on the second-place team, and up five from third-place. That said, given how the wild West has fared, those standings and positions could change or get worse in the blink of an eye.
The Mild, Mild West
This division held three .500 teams from the previous season, including one that nearly won the American League. The Seattle Mariners entered as the clear favorite, coming off an ALCS appearance and were one of the premier clubs coming into 2026.
Houston has won the West seven times in the last decade, but is transitioning outside of their dynastic era. However, they’re not the most recent team with a World Series in the division. The Texas Rangers bought in and won their only title in franchise history in 2023, but have failed to replicate the magic since. The Astros and Rangers came into the season as potential sleeper teams, but without real postseason aspirations.
The Los Angeles Angels and Athletics were both projected in the basement of the division, stuck in rebuilds. With all of these ambitions set to play out in the Mariners’ shadow, nothing has gone as expected.
All five teams have been in first at some point this season. In fact, Seattle has spent some of the least amount of time in first among their division counterparts.
Seattle started slow, giving the Rangers and Athletics space to battle through the first month. Surprisingly enough, the A’s either led or were tied for first for 45 straight days starting April 11.
After a 9-1 victory on May 27, the Mariners properly took first and held it. For well over a month, Seattle teetered their record around .500 while keeping the lead. Their governance lasted until the Rangers rode a win streak into July and captured first place for the All-Star break.
The Astros didn’t sit idly by for long, taking over the Rangers’ spot on July 31. They’ve led since, but are in no position to begin thinking about October.
Wake Me up When September Ends
This AL West battle between three mediocre teams could be the most exciting story to follow as the season concludes. It’s down to the Astros, Rangers and Mariners, who as of Aug. 30 have a combined winning percentage of 48%.
Similar to how the West started with the Mariners, it will end with the Mariners. Over the 24 total games Seattle plays in September, 19 of them are intradivisional. That includes seven games each against the A’s and Angels, and one series apiece with the Rangers and Astros.
Oppositely, both Texas and Houston have played the majority of their division series. After a treacherous final month, the Astros embark on a six-game road trip to complete the season. They’ll play two games in Seattle and then four in Sacramento against the Athletics.
Texas finishes a home series against the A’s to open the month, then visits the Mariners a week later. The Rangers and Astros do not meet in September.
This disordered schedule actually sets up a world where everything could be decided on the final day. On Sept. 27, the Astros play the A’s while the Mariners play the Angels. The Rangers travel North and finish their season against the Minnesota Twins, who are also competing for the Wild Card.
All three games would take place at the same time, potentially while delivering baseball history.
Who Will Emerge From the Dust?
Although the Astros have been atop the table since July, the Rangers and Mariners still have a suitable chance.
The biggest obstacle in the Astros’ way is not their division opponents, but their schedule itself. Houston plays five clubs that currently hold a playoff spot through the final month. With 24 games remaining, that gives them the 9th hardest strength of schedule. That’s by far the most difficult of any team in the AL West.
In the same breath, the Rangers stare down three playoff teams. However, they don’t necessarily need to focus on winning the division. As of Aug. 30, they sit two games back from the final Wild Card spot in the American League. There has never been a team outside the extended 2020 playoff format to reach October with a losing record. Texas could become the first if they can’t catch the Astros but remain in the race. Or, hell, they could just win the division under .500 and make the postseason regardless.
Do you know which team isn’t affected by a hard remaining strength of schedule? The Seattle Mariners. As a matter of fact, they have the easiest in all of baseball. They also have the clear-cut best intradivision record in the AL West. They’ve gone 20-13 thus far, which suits their division-heavy schedule through September well.
FanGraphs gives Houston a 67% chance to win its eighth division title in the last 10 years. Texas trails with 19%, and Seattle follows with 12%. The trio is projected to finish within three games of each other, furthering the potential of multiple make-or-break series in the final week.
It’s that time of the year when every pitch matters. There are about 25 games left, and no team from the West has proved their playoff ready. Or ready to win a division, for that matter.
The beauty of baseball lies in how unpredictable things like this can go. Plus, once you make the playoffs, who knows what could happen.
Will the Astros return to the playoffs, where the core of this roster is all too familiar? Can the Rangers really pursue their second-ever World Series? And when – if at all – will the Mariners die?
The post Who Will Win the Worst Division Battle in MLB History? appeared first on The Lead.
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