Who will win the World Cup 2026? Latest odds, favorites, predictions and FIFA rankings

Who will win the World Cup 2026? The answer keeps changing — and that’s exactly why fans keep searching.

With every match in the 2026 FIFA men’s World Cup, the list of favorites and power rankings of top contenders is shifting, and what once looked predictable is now wide open. Upsets and tight matches have reshaped the field, including the England and Netherlands eliminations, leaving no clear front-runner and turning the race for the trophy into one of the most unpredictable in recent memory.

No surprise France delivered a dominant win over Sweden, and now all eyes shift to team USA and another powerhouse, England, as they take the spotlight today.

• United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: 8 p.m. ET at Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, California
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United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: 8 p.m. ET at Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, California

Live stream: Fubo (free trial) | Peacock (Spanish)

Here’s how it all stands right now, including the dark horses among the favorites, FIFA rankings, and latest World cup winner predictions, odds.

France, Argentina and Spain continue to sit at or near the top of most odds boards and power rankings, backed by star-driven lineups and recent international success. England remains in contention, while teams like Brazil and Portugal are still firmly in the mix despite uneven performances.

What makes this tournament different is how quickly things change. Just days ago, traditional powers like Germany and the Netherlands were considered serious threats. Now, they’re out — and the path to the title looks completely different.

Beyond the traditional favorites, a second tier of challengers is gaining attention. Countries like Mexico, Morocco, Colombia, Norway and the United States have entered the conversation with strong showings and favorable matchups.

That depth has expanded the field of potential winners — and increased the uncertainty heading into the knockout rounds.

1. France

2. Argentina

3. Brazil

4. Spain

5. England

6. Mexico

7. Morocco

8. Norway

9. Colombia

10. United States

11. Portugal

12. Croatia

However, public sentiment in the betting odds shows a slightly different scenario of possible winners.

Across sportsbooks and predictive models, France is starting to pull away, followed by Argentina at the top of the odds board, followed by Spain, England, Brazil and Portugal to round out the top tier. And a second tier of uncertainty follows with USA, Colombia, Mexico, Morocco and Norway.

1. France – 33%

2. Argentina – 19%

3. Spain – 10%

4. England – 9%

5. Brazil – 7%

6. Portugal – 6%

7. USA – 3%

8. Colombia – 3%

9. Mexico – 3%

10. Morocco – 3%

The Kalshi markets‘ betting odds for the 2026 World Cup winner are very similar, with France and Argentina gaining the biggest lead and separation at the top tier.

1. France – 34.3%

2. Argentina – 19.3%

3. Spain – 9.7%

4. England – 8.3%

5. Brazil – 6.6%

6. Portugal – 6.5%

7. Mexico – 5.3%

8. USA – 4%

9. Colombia – 2.8%

10. Morocco – 2.9%

Across prediction models and sportsbooks, France and Argentina now hold the highest probability to win, with Spain and England now in a third-fourth place and Portugal and Brazil still holding in the top tier of contenders.

The key takeaway: France and Argentina are the heavy favorites, while margins between other top contenders remain narrow — making this still one of the most open World Cups in years. The expanded 48-team format is also playing a role, allowing more teams to advance and increasing the chances of upsets once the knockout rounds begin.

Note: Polls and odds are constantly changing. These numbers reflect polling and odds as of 9 a.m. Wednesday, July 1, 2026.

With early chaos in the group stage, several teams are legit knockout threats as they make unexpected runs, such as:

Morocco — Elite defense, counterattack efficiency and wins tight, low-scoring knockout games

USA — Home crowd advantage, favorable bracket with young attacking core

Norway — Rides Erling Haaland and dominates scoring charts, wins shootouts and tight matches

Colombia — A technically strong but less-hyped team avoids top favorites early, peaks at the right time

According to the latest FIFA Men’s World Ranking, these are the favorites to win the FIFA men’s 2026 World Cup:

1. France

2. Argentina

3. Spain

4. England

5. Brazil

6. Morocco

7. Portugal

8. Mexico

9. Belgium

10. Colombia

11. Croatia

12. United States

13. Switzerland

14. Senegal

15. Norway

16. Austria

17. Egypt

18. Australia

19. Algeria

20. Canada

21. Paraguay

22. Congo DR

23. Bosnia and Herzegovina

24. Cape Verde

25. Ghana

• Group stage: June 11–27

• Round of 32: June 28–July 3

• Round of 16: July 4–7

• Quarterfinals: July 9–11

• Semifinals: July 14–15

• Final: July 19

It will be the largest World Cup in history, with matches played across North America.

Brazil remains the most successful nation in World Cup history, with five titles. Germany and Italy are tied for second with four wins each and defending champion Argentina holds three. The record for most appearances in a World Cup final goes to Germany, making eight final matches. Here’s a list of all-time winners:

1946: No tournament due to World War II

1942: No tournament due to World War II

Maria Francis is a Pennsylvania-based journalist covering trending and breaking topics across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast regions for USA Today Network. Reach her at mfrancis@usatodayco.com.