Where does Utah rank in some of Morgan Scalley’s key stats for success?

Each week, Utah coach Morgan Scalley and his staff pour over film to prepare the team for the opposing team’s tendencies and to try to find any weaknesses that the Utes can exploit.

While watching Houston’s film, Utah noticed that Houston allowed a lot of quarterback running lanes. Quarterback Devon Dampier was able to use that to his advantage, rushing for 150 yards and two touchdowns in the Utes’ 21-13 win over the Cougars.

“We always take what the defense gives us,” Dampier said. “Just watching film, there was a lot of running lanes, quarterback lanes during dropback passes. (Coaches) just emphasized, ‘Devon, if you see it, go take it.'”

The eye test and film breakdowns are king in football, but statistics and analytics have their place as well, especially as predictors of future success.

Scalley has studied the best teams in college football over the past 20 years and has identified statistics that are predictive of success.

Obviously, scoring offense and defense are the two most important statistics, but digging deeper, what are others that lead to wins?

Rush defense, Scalley says, is a big one. While total rushing yards “doesn’t show up as a big stat” for the current top teams in the country, yards per rush is a big tell.

It’s all about efficiency.

“Are you rushing the ball efficiently? Same thing, passing the ball. Are you passing the ball efficiently? Passing yards, that will never show up. I mean, it rarely shows up in your top programs,” Scalley said.

Other telling stats that Scalley looks at include turnover margin and punt return yards.

In his studies, a good amount of the stats most predictive to team success over the past 20 years are on the defensive side of the ball.

“It’s why playing great defense is so huge and protecting the football. Chunk yardage plays shows up quite a bit,” Scalley said.

With Utah sitting atop the Big 12 Conference at 7-0 and one of just three undefeated teams left in college football, let’s take a look at where the Utes rank in some of the stats Scalley mentioned.

Scoring offense: 37.4 points per game (No. 14 in the nation)

The Utes’ offense has been potent, especially to start the season. Utah ranks No. 2 in the Big 12 in points per game, but when filtering for just conference games, that number dips from 37.4 points to 30 points, which ranks fifth in the 16-team Big 12.

After scoring at least 31 points in their first five games, Utah has seen a bit of a dip in the last two, scoring 27 points in a win over Colorado and 21 in the victory against Houston.

Scoring defense: 14.6 points per game (No. 9)

Despite allowing more passing yards — 224.1, No. 91 in the nation — than we’ve come to expect from a typical Utah defense, it hasn’t impacted the number that actually matters — opposing points per game.

Utah’s defense ranks as one of the best in the country, holding opponents to just 14.6 points per game. In conference play, Utah is allowing 19.5, but still hasn’t allowed more than 24 points in any Big 12 game this season.

The standout defensive performance by the Utes came last weekend as Utah held Houston to just 13 points — 26 points below their season average.

The biggest reason why the Utes have kept their opponents scores low has been a stingy red zone defense. Opponents are scoring in the red zone just 70.6% of the time, 10th-best in the nation, and scoring touchdowns just 47% of the time inside the 20-yard line.

That is impressive.

Yards per rush: 5.65 (No. 10); Yards per rush allowed: 3.2 (No. 22)

When Utah runs the ball, it is getting 5.65 yards per rush, good for No. 10 in the nation. Only Big 12 foes Cincinnati, the Utes’ next opponent, and Kansas are averaging more yards per rush.

Running back Wayshawn Parker has been one of the best running backs in the nation and is averaging 6.3 yards per carry, even though teams have keyed in on him as of late. Dampier also contributes to that statistic with 4.7 yards per rush, an impressive statistic considering sacks count against quarterback rushing yards in college football.

Utah has been one of the best teams against the rush, and the Utes have faced some good rushing attacks like Houston. That’s extended to making sure opponents don’t rip off too many long runs.

Passing efficiency: 158.09 (No. 25); Defensive pass efficiency: 104.24 (No. 6)

The NCAA uses this formula to calculate team passing efficiency, per sports-reference.com: 8.4 * Yds + 330 * TD – 200 * Int + 100 * Cmp) / Att.

Utah, led by Dampier, is No. 25 in the country with a passing efficiency rating of 158.09. That rating is despite six interceptions thrown by Dampier, tied for the most of any team ranked in the top 25 in passing efficiency.

Meanwhile, the defense has been effective in forcing incompletions and holding opposing quarterbacks well below their average completion percentage.

Turnover margin: +3 (tied for No. 37)

Utah has thrown six interceptions and lost two fumbles, but still has a plus-three turnover margin on the year. The Utes have lived up to the “ballhawks” in Scalley’s RSNB initialism, snagging eight interceptions and recovering three fumbles, including a huge one last week that was forced by a Jackson Bennee sack and recovered by Jireh Moe.

Scalley did caution that Dampier has to cut down the interceptions.

“We can’t turn the ball over. There’s them taking the ball away and then there’s us turning it over just with bad decision making and we’ve had a couple of those,” Scalley said.

Punt return yards: 6.67 per return (No. 99); Opposing punt return yards: -0.25 (No. 2)

Utah punt returner Mana Carvalho, who returned a punt for a touchdown last year against Cincinnati, hasn’t broken a big one yet, and has had a couple of close calls fielding the ball so far.

The Utes are averaging just 6.67 yards per punt return, which ranks near the bottom of the FBS.

On the flip side, Utah is No. 2 in the country in punt return defense, holding opponents to -0.25 yards per punt return. Opposing teams haven’t had many chances to return the ball, either, with just four returns on the season.

Chunk plays: 77 (No. 8); Opposing chunk plays: 40 (No. 20)

Defining chunk plays as passes of 20 or more yards and runs of 10 or more yards, Utah is tied for No. 8 in the country with 77 The Utes have 51 rushes of 10 or more yards and 26 passes of 20 or more yards.

On defense, Utah is limiting long rushing plays (there have been just 19 rushes of 10 or more yards against the Utes), but have allowed 21 passes of 20 or more yards.