Kirk Cousins was named the Week 1 starter for the Las Vegas Raiders.
The shock level was near-zero. The Raiders said they were going to do it this way, and they stuck to their word. First-overall pick Fernando Mendoza will have to wait to get his shot.
New Raiders head coach Klint Kubiak first floated the idea of sitting Mendoza in March, a full month prior to actually drafting Mendoza first overall.
“I think it does help (a rookie QB) if they can sit behind a mature adult and watch how they run the show,” Kubiak said from the league’s annual spring meetings. In fact, they hadn’t even signed Cousins until a week after Kubiak said those words.
But based on recent history, the Raiders are outliers for their patience. Mendoza will be the first No. 1 overall QB pick since Baker Mayfield in 2018 not to start his team’s opener. Mayfield and Jared Goff, who also began his rookie season two years earlier on the bench, technically were also outliers, as the first two 1.1 pick QBs not to start Week 1 since JaMarcus Russell in 2007.
There was a brief moment this preseason when the Raiders’ Mendoza Plan appeared to be in flux. Even after the rookie struggled against the Texans’ backups, Kubiak said he wasn’t ready to name a starter, not wanting “anyone to be comfortable in their job.”
Eleven days later, Kubiak named Cousins his Week 1 starter against the Miami Dolphins. Cousins can’t feel too comfortable in his job, knowing that Mendoza is the future. But how far down the road is that future?
Let’s take a look at when the Raiders might, barring injury, turn to Mendoza to take over.
There’s definitely a contingent of coaches who want to throw the prodigy into the deep end of the pool. Former Eagles head coach Doug Pederson appears to be one of them. Pederson’s Eagles had just drafted North Dakota State’s Carson Wentz No. 2 overall, and it appeared Wentz would sit behind veteran Sam Bradford. But that all changed when the Eagles suddenly traded Bradford to the Vikings, and suddenly Wentz was out there starting Week 1.
Back in July, Pederson let his preference be known: The Raiders should start Mendoza immediately.
“Let’s get this guy out there Week 1, let’s start having our growing pains Week 1,” Pederson said, via CBS Sports. “Let’s not prolong it into October or November or later in the season. Let’s get him out there now. Let’s get him working with the guys that he’s going to be working with.”
Is September in play? If recent history is an indicator, then yes. Pedigree matters.
In the five draft classes from 2021 to 2025, there were 17 first-round quarterbacks. Of those, 10 started Week 1 of their rookie season, and another four started within the first four games.
The three QBs who had to wait longer were Kenny Pickett, who started Week 5 of his rookie season; J.J. McCarthy, who missed his entire rookie season with a knee injury; and Michael Penix, Jr., who was coming off an ACL and was expected to sit behind Kirk Cousins.
The takeaway: First-round rookies tend to play early and often, way more often than not. That’s why starting sometime in the first quarter or third of the season might be in play for Mendoza.
The Dolphins might look like an easier Week 1 assignment, but Cousins’ Falcons lost to them last season. After that, the Raiders face back-to-back road games at the Chargers and Saints, the Chiefs at home, at New England then home games against the Bills and Rams.
The Raiders are favored in the opener and underdogs in the next six games. A 1-6 start wouldn’t stun a lot of people, but the groans for a QB change – even if Cousins isn’t the primary problem – could get a little loud.
And if you’re worried that Kubiak hasn’t been effusive enough in his praise of Mendoza, it can be a dangerous game to spend too much time parsing a coach’s semantics. Remember, they’re playing their own game of poker – with information as their chips. The fewer they give away, the better.
One year ago, Giants head coach Brian Daboll didn’t exactly glaze Jaxson Dart after announcing Russell Wilson would start. Daboll offered measured praise of the rookie while emphasizing the need to get better. It felt like a coach wanting to give his new veteran starter some rope.
Three games later, after an 0-3 start, Dart replaced Wilson. Sometimes the rope is shorter than coaches want you to believe it is.
Let’s take Kubiak and the Raiders at their word for a moment. They’ve stuck with their plan and executed it so far. Maybe they’re prepared to be the 2003 Bengals, who say Carson Palmer for an entire season in lieu of Jon Kitna, for all we know.
What if Cousins flourishes? What if the Raiders, you know, win games? Perhaps even some in that early stretch they’re not expected to. All of a sudden, Kubiak’s decision isn’t so cut and dry.
Cousins played well down the stretch for a flawed Falcons team a year ago. A 4-8 team entering December made a near-unfathomable flirtation with the playoffs. Outside of the Seahawks loss, Cousins was playing some pretty respectable ball.
The skill-position talent in Las Vegas doesn’t match Atlanta’s best options, but TE Brock Bowers is elite, and there are some other respectable players with upside there. Kubiak’s system should be a good match for the personnel.
Every one of Cousins’ preseason drives ended in points this August. Field goals, not touchdowns, but scores nonetheless.
“I see a guy that’s leading the offense,” Kubiak said.
So Cousins’ success is part of the equation. But Kubiak also has made it clear that Mendoza will earn his elevation to the starting role when he’s ready, not based on any outside forces. Mendoza’s play in the preseason was up and down, and not always against elite competition. His struggles vs. the Texans came against their second-teamers.
Kubiak’s nightmare would be to pull a moderately effective Cousins and replace him with a barely-treading-water Mendoza, effectively hurting his team in the short term. Yes, the big picture is what’s most important, and Mendoza can’t afford to sit for too long, but the first-year head coach wouldn’t want to get to the point where he’d be considering switching back to Cousins.
If you’re looking for the natural break in the schedule, the Raiders’ bye is in Week 13. Maybe not ideal for this Raiders team, but it is what it is. This feels like the absolute floor for Mendoza’s first start, coming out of the bye to take on the Chargers in Vegas – the first of three straight home games. That would give him the final five games of the season to act as a runway, short as it might be, to the offseason and the 2027 campaign.
If September feels a bit premature for Mendoza’s first start, and December is just way too long to wait, can we interest you in a pretty reasonable compromise?
Why this game for Mendoza to begin his journey? It’s the first real spot that seems to make the most sense, assuming Cousins isn’t underwater by that point. Even if the Raiders somehow can start 2-1 or better this season, it’s harder still to see them having commensurate success against the Chiefs-Patriots-Bills-Rams gauntlet that follows.
Sure, being born in Boston and growing up idolizing Tom Brady (even after moving to Miami) might make Mendoza starting at Foxborough a fun storyline – and if the rookie is ready then, he’s ready. But don’t force the fun narrative; it’s got to be a football-first decision. Otherwise you’re asking Mendoza to match fireballs with Josh Allen one week and then survive the Myles Garrett-Aaron Donald sortie the next.
The Jets game is the lowest-pressure landing spot right now. It’s roughly the midpoint of the season. It would give Mendoza 10 starts – six on the road, four at home – this season. The bye week, smack dab in the middle of that 10-game run, would give him and the Raiders a chance to step back, assess his progress and gear up for a pretty favorable December slate, all things considered. And if Mendoza somehow isn’t “ready” by this point, then the Raiders really should be concerned long term.
The point shouldn’t be to shelter Mendoza unnecessarily. Eventually, he’s going to have to slug it out with the league’s best teams, defenses and star quarterbacks. Giving him a taste of that medicine in his rookie season feels like a smart and necessary move. But there’s also little value in throwing Mendoza to the wolves too soon … or giving him too little work prior to next season.
There’s a balance required in Kubiak’s decision, but there’s also a bottom line: Mendoza needs to play this season. That should trump any other concerns at the end of the day.
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