What we're watching for and prediction for top-15 BYU football and CSU

Can Colorado State record a ranked win for the first time in a long time?

The CSU football team hasn’t won a game against a ranked opponent since 2002 when the Rams knocked off No. 6/7 Colorado.

The Rams haven’t won a home game against a ranked team since beating No. 23 Fresno State at Hughes Stadium in 1993.

Here’s what we’re looking for when CSU hosts No. 11/13 BYU at 5:30 p.m. Sept. 19 at Canvas Stadium, plus a prediction on the final score.
keep forcing turnovers?

The Rams have taken the ball away eight times in two games (four turnovers forced in each), which is tied for first in FBS this season.

CSU’s plus-seven turnover margin is second in the nation. BYU has forced five turnovers and not given the ball away once (plus-five margin is fifth in FBS).

It’s a cliche, but very true in this one: The team winning the turnover battle will have a leg up. Particularly for CSU, it feels hard to imagine the Rams having a chance to pull the upset if they’re negative on turnovers.

CSU almost certainly needs a couple big plays on defense (or special teams) to swing this one.

Can the Rams keep finding a way to steal the ball away?

The Rams had seven touchdowns in a 58-point performance last weekend and all seven of those TD drives were four plays or less.

Holy moly, that’s quite the display of big play fireworks! CSU had TD plays of 75, 73, 68, 38, 33 and 17 yards. The only short TD was a 1-yard Mel Brown run that was set up by his 80-yard run the play before.

No doubt, those plays are fantastic for an offense and explosive plays are part of CSU’s identity. But it’s also not realistic to expect that volume of explosives against a very good BYU defense.

CSU will need some explosive plays to win, but the Rams also need to be able to sustain drives.

“Big plays are great, we love big plays. I also like sustained drives and I think we could have done a little better job there,” coach Jim Mora said after the Southern Utah win.

Mora has talked often in the first few weeks of the season about aiming for CSU to be better at turning short gains (2, 3 yards) into medium gains (5-7 yards) to keep drives rolling.

A way the Rams can win is by hitting some big plays but also being able to control the tempo of the game with longer drives as well. Can CSU execute those sustained drives?

The last CSU game with this level of hype was in 2024 when Deion Sanders and rival Colorado came to Fort Collins in 2024. That game became one of the enduring images for the failed Jay Norvell era, as the Rams put in a meek and cautious game plan and performance in a dull 28-9 loss.

The timid plan turned the tide for many at CSU against Norvell and it was a stark contrast to 2023 when the Rams went swashbuckling into Boulder and nearly pulled a huge upset.

Most CSU fans understand how big a challenge this BYU game is. Yes, they want a big upset, but even beyond that they want to see a team willing to try and fight a heavyweight.

Mora and his coordinators bring attacking mindsets. It feels certain CSU will try to approach this game smartly, yes, but with a plan to make this difficult for BYU.

“It’s a hefty challenge. It’s going to be a tough one and we will fight,” Mora said this week. “I can promise all CSU fans we’ll fight.”

I know they were two teams CSU was supposed to beat, but the eye test on the Rams in victories against Wyoming and Southern Utah tell me this isn’t a mirage of a 2-0 squad.

This roster is bigger, faster and stronger than we’ve seen from CSU. It’s closer to a Power 4 roster than we’ve seen. But BYU is a big-time power these days, with a lot of money.

CSU’s offense will create some problems for BYU, but Bear Bachmeier and the weapons of the Cougar offense will eventually take over.

The Rams will hang in for most of the game, but BYU puts it away in the fourth quarter.

Sports reporter Kevin Lytle can be found on social media on X, Instagram and Threads @Kevin_Lytle and on Bluesky.

This article originally appeared on Fort Collins Coloradoan: What we’re watching for and prediction for top-15 BYU football and CSU