What are the chances of these major winners and long shots beating Nelly Korda at Riviera

LOS ANGELES — The focus will on Nelly Korda on Sunday afternoon in the final round of the 81st U.S. Women’s Open. It should be. She is the No. 1 player in the world. An American trying to win her national championship for the first time. And she can become the first U.S. woman since the legendary Mickey Wright to win four major titles so early in her career.

All tremendous stuff that would make for a memorable celebration should Korda prevail

But there are 10 chasers three shots or closer to the lead and another five who are only four back. Some of them are major winners, and Ingee Chun (one shot back) is like Korda in trying to win a fourth major in three different events.

With that in mind, here’s a look at the top contenders on Sunday not named Nelly Korda, and our rating (1 to 10) of their chances to lift the trophy in Riviera’s magnificent 18th hole amphitheater.

Ruoning Yin (four under, T-5)

Chance to win: 9 in 10

Why she’ll win: We didn’t see a 71 coming from the World No. 4 in the third round, but she also showed fight with two straight birdies on 16 and 17. At this point, she’s the class of the chasers, with four top-10s in her last five starts.

Best stat this week: Tied for 13th, SG/ putting

Sei Young Kim (T-1, six under)

Chance to win: 8 in 10

Why she’ll win: Only Korda has more LPGA victories (18) than the 33-year-old from South Korea, who is trying to win her second major, with the first one coming six years ago in a five-shot runaway in the Women’s PGA Championship. Kim’s last victory came last year when she smoked the field by four at 24 under to win the BMW Ladies Championship. So, she clearly has the gear to go low and run away.

Key stat this week: Fifth in SG/approach

Jennifer Kupcho (T-2, five under)

Chance to win: 8 in 10

Why she’ll win: Her career got off to a tremendous start when she won the 2022 Chevon Championship. (The runner-up that week? Jessica Korda.) Since then, Kupcho has not played very well in majors, including three missed cuts in the five last year. But … she has fallen in love with Riviera and her opening 66 is the second-best score on the course this week. “I love playing this golf course,” Kupcho said. “… I said that walking up 18 to my caddie, and I said, ‘Wow, this is such a cool place. Like I love this place.’ And he’s, like, ‘I’ve never heard you say that before.'”

Key stat this week: Second in SG/putting

In Gee Chun (T-2, five under)

Chance to win: 7 in 10

Why she’ll win: As we noted, Chun is a major beast; her three major victories have come in different tournaments, with the first triumph in the 2015 U.S. Women’s Open at Lancaster C.C. She bagged her others in the Evian Championship (2016) and Women’s PGA (2022). Curiously, though, Chun has won just one other title on the LPGA, in 2018, so she only has three victories on American soil. She also has only one top-10 in seven starts this year.

Key stat this week: Ninth in SG/putting

Nasa Hataoka (T-5, four under)

Chance to win: 7 in 10

Why she’ll win: The seven-time LPGA winner seems due for a major breakthrough. She has three top-3s in three different majors, including second in the U.S. Women’s Open in 2021. Hataoka was a winner last year in the Toto Japan Classic and has three top-10s this year—though the last came in April. She’s one of the few top contenders who seems to be driving the ball better than she’s putting.

Best stat of the week: First in SG/off-the-tee

Gaby Lopez (T-5, four under)

Chance to win: 7 in 10

Why she’ll win: Because every course worker at Riviera is willing her pull it off. As Lorena Ochoa before her, Lopez has endeared herself to the Mexican workers here, and there were loud ovations for her at some holes. That didn’t boost her Saturday with a 70, so she may have to calm her nerves. To the bad, she’s also the only contender who is losing strokes in putting—by a wide margin (-2.1).

Key stat of the week: SG/approach

Charley Hull (T-8, three under)

Chance to win: 7 in 10

Why she’ll win: She claimed to have a “what’s there to lose” attitude going into the third round and shot the week’s lowest score of 65. Can Hull keep the pressure away now that she’s truly got a shot at winning her first major? It might depend on how aggressive she gets with what figures to be a more daunting USGA setup. She’s also got to putt better; she ranks 54th for the week.

Best stat of the week: SG/off-the-tee

Alison Lee (T-8, three under)

Chance to win: 6 in 10

Why she’ll win: Because maybe it’s fate? Lee has yet to win in 11 years on tour and she could break that curse with a major victory on her hometown. It would be the second-best story of the week beyond Korda. And Lee truly has battled to stay in the hunt despite not being sharp in all facets. But it’s feeling like another close call without a win is in the cards.

Best stat of the week: Seventh in SG/putting

Hyunjo Yoo (T-8, three under)

Chance to win: 5 in 10

Why she’ll win: Hard to make a case for the two-time winner on the Korean LPGA Tour. She plays almost exclusively overseas and this is only her second major start ever. An opening 68 put her in a good position, and she’s played routine major golf since with two 71s.

Best stat of the week: Second in SG/off-the-tee