No. 10 Ole Miss hosts No. 2 Georgia as a 3.5-point underdog to headline college football‘s Week 10 upset watch, one of six games on Saturday’s slate where the underdog has a credible path to an outright win.
The Rebels (6-2) are without running back Kewan Lacy, but they beat Georgia 39-34 in last season’s College Football Playoff quarterfinal. No. 6 Kentucky also gets 6.5 points at No. 13 Tennessee despite sitting seven spots higher in the first College Football Playoff rankings.
MORE:Week 10 college football best bets: Ohio State, Oklahoma face pivotal tests
Texas A&M (+7) at South Carolina: Upset Watch 6
- Kickoff: Saturday, Nov. 7, 3 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Texas A&M (4-4, 1-4 SEC) returns from its bye after a 31-20 loss at Alabama in which Marcel Reed threw two interceptions. Coach Mike Elko considered switching to freshman Brady Hart but kept Reed in place. “I still believe he’s our best option,” Elko said.
No. 21 South Carolina (5-3) has won three straight over Florida, Tennessee and Oklahoma, including last week’s 42-25 rout in Norman. The Gamecocks lost running back Matt Fuller for the regular season to foot surgery, though Jawarn Howell returns from a shoulder injury. Elko knows where the offense starts. “South Carolina is really challenging because they do a good job of staying in third-and-manageable, and [LaNorris Sellers] is such a weapon,” Elko said.
ESPN’s Football Power Index rates Texas A&M slightly higher than South Carolina, 13.8 to 13.5, and the Aggies erased a 30-3 halftime deficit to beat the Gamecocks 31-30 last season. Running back KJ Edwards, who leads A&M with 360 rushing yards, is questionable, though.
Sellers and the SEC’s top rushing offense should be enough to win on homecoming in Columbia. But seven points is a lot to lay against a rested A&M defense.
Picks: South Carolina 27-24, Texas A&M +7, Over 50.5
Kentucky (+6.5) at Tennessee: Upset Watch 7.5
- Kickoff: Saturday, Nov. 7, 6:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)
No. 6 Kentucky (7-1, 5-1 SEC) brings a six-game winning streak and its highest College Football Playoff ranking ever into Neyland Stadium. First-year coach Will Stein has the Wildcats tied with Georgia atop the SEC, and winning their last three league games would send Kentucky to the conference title game for the first time.
No. 13 Tennessee (6-2, 3-2) lost 27-24 at South Carolina on a last-second field goal before its bye, committing 12 penalties along the way. George MacIntyre has started the last three games and the Volunteers are 3-1 since he entered the Oct. 3 game against Auburn. Stein expects a tough night. “They could easily be 8-0. They had a close loss to Texas at home and obviously lost to South Carolina on the last-second field goal,” Stein said.
Kentucky comes out of its bye with running back CJ Baxter, receiver Nic Anderson and right tackle Malachi Wood off the availability report, and edge rusher Sam Greene is probable. The Wildcats also lead the SEC in turnover margin and are the league’s least penalized team. “They are a complete football team,” Heupel said.
Heupel is 5-0 against Kentucky, so history favors the Vols. Still, a healthy Kentucky team that doesn’t beat itself is the right side against a Tennessee team that just gave away a game with penalties.
Picks: Kentucky 27-24, Kentucky +6.5, Over 49.5
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Miami (+7.5) at Notre Dame: Upset Watch 5.5
- Kickoff: Saturday, Nov. 7, 7:30 p.m. ET (NBC)
No. 1 Miami (8-0) faces a ranked opponent for the first time this season without Malachi Toney, who will have surgery on a high ankle sprain he suffered in practice Wednesday. The Hurricanes still lead the nation at 47.6 points per game, and Darian Mensah has Cooper Barkate and Daylyn Upshaw to target.
No. 11 Notre Dame (7-1) beat Navy 35-13 and allows a nation-low 236.1 yards per game, but it’ll play without leading tackler Drayk Bowen. Coach Marcus Freeman isn’t assuming Toney sits. “We started prepping on Sunday (for Miami), and you got to have a plan for a dynamic player like that,” Freeman said.
Miami beat Notre Dame 27-24 in last season’s opener, a result that later decided a playoff spot between the two programs. The Football Power Index separates them by 0.7 points before home-field advantage, so 7.5 points is generous even without Toney.
North Carolina threw for 341 yards against Miami, and CJ Carr should find room in South Bend. But Mensah and that offense keep the Hurricanes within one score.
Picks: Notre Dame 31-28, Miami +7.5, Over 54.5
Georgia at Ole Miss (+3.5): Upset Watch 8
- Kickoff: Saturday, Nov. 7, 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC)
No. 10 Ole Miss (6-2, 4-2 SEC) scored the final 28 points of a 45-15 win over Auburn after the Tigers pulled within 17-15 in the third quarter. Trinidad Chambliss threw for 263 yards and two touchdowns and ran for another, and Georgia coach Kirby Smart didn’t hide his respect. “They probably have the best quarterback in the country who plays at a high level,” Smart said.
No. 2 Georgia (7-1, 5-1) beat Florida 27-8 and is tied with Kentucky for the SEC lead, with its only loss coming at home to Auburn. The Bulldogs score 41 points per game, fourth nationally.
Ole Miss will play without Lacy, who dislocated his left shoulder Oct. 24 at Texas. “This isn’t something that’s going to happen overnight,” coach Pete Golding said. Leading tackler Keaton Thomas and defensive end Kam Franklin were still questionable on Thursday’s availability report, while Georgia is without outside linebacker Amaris Williams.
Georgia (43-7) and Ole Miss (40-9) own the SEC’s two best records since 2023. Chambliss, a home crowd and 3.5 points make the Rebels the strongest upset pick on the slate, though losing both Thomas and Franklin would weaken that case.
Picks: Ole Miss 31-30, Ole Miss +3.5, Over 56.5
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Colorado (+3.5) at Arizona State: Upset Watch 7
- Kickoff: Saturday, Nov. 7, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Colorado (3-5, 1-4 Big 12) snapped a five-game losing streak with a 27-24 overtime win over Kansas State, its first conference victory. Arizona State (4-4, 2-3) lost 27-20 at BYU in true freshman Jake Fette’s first start, and Fette is the Sun Devils’ third starting quarterback this season.
Arizona State coach Kenny Dillingham isn’t reading much into Colorado’s record. “This is a very, very good football team that is very, very dangerous,” Dillingham said. Deion Sanders returned the respect. “Defensively, they’re sound; they play good football,” Sanders said of the Sun Devils.
Injuries hit both defenses. Arizona State safety Lyrik Rawls is out for the season, and Colorado lists defensive linemen Vili Taufatofua and Dylan Manuel as doubtful. The Sun Devils have also used a different starting offensive line in each of their last seven games.
Colorado’s biggest problem is ball security, ranking 137th nationally in turnover margin. If the Buffaloes protect the ball against a freshman quarterback behind a reshuffled line, they’re good enough on defense to win a low-scoring game in Tempe.
Picks: Colorado 24-23, Colorado +3.5, Under 48.5
Oklahoma (+6.5) at Florida: Upset Watch 5
- Kickoff: Saturday, Nov. 7, 7:45 p.m. ET (SEC Network)
Oklahoma (4-4, 2-3 SEC) fired offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle after a 42-25 home loss to South Carolina, and tight ends coach Jason Witten will call plays for the first time at the college level. CBS Sports’ Matt Zenitz reported that “the plan seems to be for Oklahoma to stick with John Mateer as its starting quarterback.” The Sooners average 22 points and 336.9 yards per game, both 15th among 16 SEC teams.
No. 24 Florida (5-3, 3-3) turned the ball over four times in a 27-8 loss to Georgia, and Tramell Jones Jr. is expected to replace Aaron Philo as the starter. Coach Jon Sumrall said he had “a plan that is already kind of in motion and in place.” Florida’s leaky offensive line remains a problem regardless of who plays quarterback.
Turnovers should decide the first on-campus meeting between these programs. Florida has nine takeaways and four giveaways in its five wins but one takeaway and seven giveaways in its three losses. Oklahoma has eight takeaways and two giveaways in its four wins, so a clean game from Mateer keeps the Sooners within a field goal in a game that stays under 45.5.
Picks: Florida 23-20, Oklahoma +6.5, Under 45.5
More upset watches
- TCU (+7.5) at Arizona: Upset Watch 4. TCU (4-4) rallied from a 13-0 halftime deficit to beat Kansas 22-16 on Jaden Craig’s 17-yard touchdown run with 1:09 left, and leading rusher Jeremy Payne is probable for Friday night after missing two games. No. 22 Arizona (6-2) lost 34-26 at Texas Tech despite 417 passing yards from Noah Fifita. Prediction: Arizona 23-20.
- BYU (+4.5) at Utah: Upset Watch 4.5. No. 3 Utah (8-0) owns the nation’s longest active winning streak and is 8-0 for the first time since 2010 after a 49-25 win at Cincinnati. No. 9 BYU (7-1) has won the last three meetings, but star running back LJ Martin is doubtful after missing four games with an ankle injury. Prediction: Utah 24-21.
- Florida State at Boston College (+6.5): Upset Watch 3. Florida State (3-5) fired Mike Norvell after a 36-24 loss to Clemson, and interim coach Rick Stockstill takes over without receiver Duce Robinson, who tore his ACL, while running back Quintrevion Wisner is questionable. Boston College (4-4) lost 47-2 at Duke last week. Prediction: Florida State 27-24.
- Cincinnati (+10.5) at Houston: Upset Watch 3.5. No. 17 Houston (6-2) comes off a bye after a 21-13 loss at Utah, and quarterback Conner Weigman is back at practice. Cincinnati (5-3) trailed Utah 42-6 at halftime last week and has allowed at least 500 yards to three of its five Big 12 opponents. Prediction: Houston 35-28.
- Boise State at Colorado State (+17.5): Upset Watch 2. No. 25 Boise State (7-1) lists quarterback Maddux Madsen as questionable with a knee injury from last week’s 46-45 win over Texas State, and Max Cutforth would start if Madsen can’t go. Prediction: Boise State 45-31.
- Texas State (+6.5) at Oregon State: Upset Watch 4.5. Texas State (4-4) lost 46-45 at Boise State last week, and Oregon State (5-3) returns home after a loss to Fresno State for Saturday’s 10:30 p.m. ET finale. Prediction: Oregon State 38-34.
MORE:Week 10 college football prediction market picks: Texas, UCLA, Penn State road tests
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