Vikings Week 8 Stock Market Report

The Minnesota Vikings lost for the first time in their last twelve contests, falling 19-15 on the road against the Detroit Lions. It was a game that will bring more scrutiny and criticism of the Vikings offense, as the Vikings were unable to drive the field much on several occasions, or possess the ball very long. That led to the Lions wearing the Vikings defense down and going with a heavy dose of heavy-formation running between the tackles to take and keep the lead in the fourth quarter. The Vikings elected to punt the ball on what turned out to be their last possession, facing a 4th and 5 situation on their own side of the field. It was a questionable decision that revealed O’Connell’s lack of confidence in his offense given that the Lions had been wearing down the Vikings defense and the Lions were also down five players on defense.

As it was, the Vikings suffered a rare loss when tying the turnover battle. The Vikings have won 90% of the time when tying or winning the turnover battle. But credit also the Lions for having a good game plan on both sides of the ball- which the Vikings weren’t able to counter effectively.

Stock Up

Nobody.

Stock Down

Kyler Murray. It wasn’t any one thing with Murray, but it was at times holding the ball too long and taking a sack- putting the offense further behind schedule, and at times being off with his accuracy. But perhaps more than that, he seems to be playing with too much of a conservative mindset, looking more to not make a mistake versus making a play. This is the second game in a row that his adjusted completion percentage has been under 70%, meaning he had about 9 inaccurate passes in the game. There still is no rhythm in the Vikings passing game as Murray remains inconsistent. And this has been with fairly good pass protection and playing against defenses ranking near the bottom of the league.

The Lions had a good game plan, however. They double-covered Justin Jefferson the whole game, and doubled T.J. Hockenson in some key situations as well. They played mostly man coverage as they like to do, but they were betting that the Murray-to-Addison (or Jennings) connection wasn’t going to beat them. And there was a reason for that. So far this season, Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson have been elite against man coverage- both grading over 90 according to PFF. But Jordan Addison has not. He has graded just 58.6 with only 4 receptions on 11 targets for 34 yards this season prior to the Lions game. Hence they doubled Jefferson and (at times) Hockenson.

The Lions also doubtlessly benefited from having Murray’s former offensive coordinator, Drew Petzing, on their staff as he would have insight into Murray’s strengths and weaknesses that they could work into their game plan. It wasn’t an off-the-charts bad performance by Murray, who finished 17/29 for 210 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT and an 89.7 passer rating, but more of a continuation of the same issues that have been hindering the offensive all season.

Kevin O’Connell. Part of the problem with Kyler Murray comes from KOC, who has pivoted too much toward a conservative mindset. Maybe that’s justified from what he’s seeing in practice, but he doesn’t really seem to be gearing up the offense to play a bigger role when even he has said more from the offense will be needed against the Lions and other matchups coming this month. He talked about the offense “being close” last week, but it got farther away in Detroit.

At this point in the season, and especially with a bye-week to assess things as well, the offense should be further along than where it is and be able to respond better to game developments. But instead the scheme seems stale with few answers and there still is little hint of rhythm and timing or consistency- and they are getting to the halfway point of the season.

There needs to be more urgency. Perhaps the winning streak has led KOC to take a more relaxed approach to getting the offense from liability to asset, but shame on him for not being more proactive.

In that sense maybe the loss to the Lions and the end of the win streak is just the kick O’Connell needs to get the offense on track. Something needs to change, and that has to start with O’Connell. I think he’s seen now that if the offense doesn’t get it together, the defense isn’t infallible against better offenses and a heavy-formation run game to counter Brian Flores’ pressure packages and wear them down.

O’Connell got outcoached against the Lions as well. They had a better game plan against his offense that he wasn’t able to counter effectively- and I’m not sure there was much of an attempt to do so. The Vikings offense’s inability to possess the ball and score points- 8 of their 11 drives were 5 plays or less- particularly in the second half, led to the Lions shifting to a heavy-formation run game to take the lead and secure it in the fourth quarter. It was something the Lions hadn’t really shown much on tape.

O’Connell wasn’t able to take advantage of Detroit’s injury-depleted defense in the second half either, and with three minutes left in the game, facing 4th and 5 at their own 33-yard line, down 4 points, O’Connell didn’t have confidence in his offense to convert against a Lions defense playing backups at half their positions. It was a telling decision.

Buy

The Vikings loss- and end of their winning streak- adding urgency to improving the offense.

Sell

The Vikings loss to the Lions effectively ending their season.

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