UFC Vegas 121 preview and predictions: Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Raoni Barcelos — who wins?

Nairavoice | Sep 25, 2026 39m ago 238 0 7 min read

UFC Vegas 121 preview and predictions: Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Raoni Barcelos — who wins?

It’s been a great stretch of UFC events since the promotion was last in the Meta Apex in early August. Given the scenes and sights since then, UFC Vegas 121 looks like a clear break weekend for the MMA leader.

Contender Series standout Raul Rosas Jr., 21, is back and slotted in for his first UFC main event. Standing in his way is seasoned veteran Raoni Barcelos, 39, creating a massive 18-year age gap between the two. Coincidentally, the fight is also Barcelos’ first UFC main event despite having been in the promotion since 2018 — when Rosas was just 13 years old.

The bantamweight divisions for both the men and women fully take the spotlight this weekend, as the most directly meaningful fight for any weight class’ rankings at UFC Vegas 121 is the new co-main event. Norma Dumont and Ailin Perez get some rare treatment for women’s bantamweight in 2026, nearing the top of the card.

Oh, “The Ultimate Fighter 34” finals fights are also on this card. Who would’ve thought?

👑 UFC Vegas 121’s lineup Crown grade: F+. 👑

https%3A%2F%2Fd29szjachogqwa.cloudfront UFC Vegas 121 preview and predictions: Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Raoni Barcelos — who wins?

Raul Rosas Jr. can’t chiwiwi his way out of this one.

I’ve been a staunch Rosas doubter since his 2023 loss to Christian Rodriguez. Like, to the point of picking him in only two of the five wins he’s rattled off since. It’s very tempting to go against him again in this matchup, which is essentially Rosas taking on an ultra-refined, future version of himself — at least stylistically.

Barcelos is on one of the best under-the-radar win streaks in the sport, having also won five straight, including wins over fellow UFC Vegas 121 fighters Ricky Simon and Montel Jackson. His streak is also highlighted by bigger names like Payton Talbott and Cody Garbrandt.

This fight has all the makings of being an epic grapplers’ delight that ultimately comes down to who gasses first across the 25-minute sprint. Rosas’ Rob Font win is kind of my hinge point here when assessing the youngster. Sure, stylistically, Font is nothing like Barcelos. But he is an equally experienced, tough veteran challenge that Rosas passed.

Rosas has seemingly sured up his game enough to hang with someone like Barcelos, and the youth difference will make him the fresher man. It won’t be easy, but he should pull it off.

Norma Dumont returns and has serious beef with Ailín Pérez in what is a top-five contender bout. Typically, the UFC doesn’t care whatsoever about promoting any contender in this division, yet here we are with a surprise mid-week lineup change. Presumably, matchmakers saw the brewing bad blood here and felt compelled to (rightfully) move this fight off the prelims.

We’re in a world where Perez could realistically see herself fighting for the title next with a win. Dumont? It’s possible, but highly unlikely after her lengthy win streak snapped in her last time out against Joselyne Edwards, whom Pérez has beaten.

On her latest unbeaten run, Pérez has gotten by almost exclusively with her wrestling and strong top game. No one thus far has been able to stop her from taking them down. But Perez has yet to face someone as physically imposing or tactical as Dumont, which is where she’s faced with plenty of danger — plus the fact that Dumont freaking hates her.

The latter factor could actually work against Dumont if she doesn’t remain composed on Saturday night. But historically, she has one of the best fight IQs in her division and mixes up her game wonderfully. Her level of competition has also been much higher for a longer period. If she can’t put together a title push now, she likely never will.

Bafflingly, Sedriques Dumas is still holding down a roster spot in the UFC and now gets shuffled to the top three fights this weekend after losing out on his initial opponent, Mickey Gall.

(How that makes any sense, I cannot explain.)

So in steps police officer Luis Hernandez on a few days’ notice. You know, the guy who Sean Strickland attacked on the regional scene to prompt his suspension from the Nevada Athletic Commission.

That’s right. This matchup pits literal law enforcement against a man with 15 jail visits in the past 10 years, with an arrest for home invasion robbery, battery, and possession of a weapon/ammo as recently as April 2025.

Hernandez is an undefeated 8-0 prospect and just won his UFC contract through Contender Series last week. Normally, I’m not one to favor the short-notice guy. But under these circumstances, Hernandez enters off a training camp and a win with limited damage rather than just getting up off the couch. He’s also taking on a guy who has seen better days inside (and outside) of the Octagon.

Who is ready for a new Ultimate Fighter?!

It’s the first of the two “TUF 34” finals! Wait, you didn’t watch the season? Really? How could you?!

(Don’t worry. No one is expected to in 2026 and beyond.)

Based on the literal names alone, this feels like something we’d see highlights from ACA that Caposa posted about on Twitter at 3:37 a.m. on a random Thursday.

Nonetheless, the Azerbaijani Mahammadali Osmanli has been on a tear since his lone career defeat in August 2022, racking up nine straight wins. He submitted his way to this finals matchup as part of Michael Bisping’s team.

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Ilimbek Akylbek is only a year older than Osmanli at 23, so both of these dudes will likely be around for a good while. However, Akylbek struggled more on “TUF,” winning tough decisions, while being chinned and knocked out in all three of his prior losses.

Even with a Contender Series loss to Piera Rodriguez in October 2021, Valesca “Tina Black” Machado should have been signed to the UFC by now. The former Invicta FC strawweight champion has only lost to Danni McCormack in her eight fights since. With Machado, you get some of the best Muay Thai at 115 pounds, instantly making her a fun addition to the roster.

Melissa Amaya is no slouch either. The undefeated 8-0 former Combate Global standout rolled through “TUF” with a submission and a TKO, lining her up for the best possible finals bout out of the strawweight crop.

Getting Machado to the ground is in everyone’s best interest, but she’s been improving her grappling by working with one-time title challenger and BJJ wizard Virna Jandiroba. Then, as we saw in her recent UFC debut, Delphine Benouaich is pretty damn good, and Machado already defeated her to reach this matchup.

A rematch between Montel Jackson and Ricky Simon was never something I expected to see, but here we are. That fight was one of the tougher matchups on Simon’s rise to contendership upon his arrival in the UFC, and while the two have seemingly flipped trajectories since that 2018 encounter, Simon should still have enough in the tank to get past Jackson again, especially with the experience of the first fight. And sadly, Jackson has just been wildly unreliable in his career.

We also have the return of Yazmin Jauregui, which is very exciting. She’s in a tailor-made matchup against Vanessa Demopoulos to either shine with a stellar highlight-reel finish or fall short to one after destroying Demopoulos early.