UFC Abu Dhabi Prime Picks: These men all have one thing in common

Image: Ben Duffy/Sherdog.com illustration

UFC Fight Night 282 betting analysis featuring Magomed
Ankalaev, Magomed Zaynukov and Valter Walker

We at Sherdog provide regular, in-depth preview coverage for all
major events, including our oft-praised preview column along with
our “Sheehan Show” handling all sorts of related matters including
betting. With those official sources for picks handled, we would
like to take the edge off here and get a bit lighter with our
breakdowns.

The industry of sports betting is exploding before our very eyes,
with billions of dollars pumping in since legalization stateside.
Oftentimes, those driving the lines are right on the money with
their openings, valuations and analyses. Occasionally they are way
off, or otherwise merit some additional conversation. That is where
we come in with this reinvigorated series of Prime Picks, where,
stealing a line from game show host Sam Reich, we hold hands and
jump into the abyss together for Saturday morning’s Ultimate Fighting Championship‘s jaunt to

Abu Dhabi. Try it out.

“Oops! All Magomeds” (-133)

Magomed
Ankalaev (-575)
Magomed
Zaynukov (-290)
Magomed
Tuchalov (-900)

We admit, we’re getting away with a technicality here by not
including Muhammad
Said in our same-name parlay. After all, Magomed is the Russian
transliteration of Muhammad. Also, good luck trying to search the
name “Muhammad Said” without any additional qualifiers and still
garner any information about the fighter of that namesake. All of
these Magomeds are rightful favorites, and in the case of two of
the more expected victors of Tuchalov and Ankalaev, moneyline bets
are just not worth it.

Therefore, we pair these three gents together, all of whom have
clear paths to victory against foes who have displayed exploitable
weaknesses. Some are giving Bogdan
Guskov a proverbial “puncher’s chance” to win this fight,
although he might have some surprise jiu-jitsu in his back pocket.
Nevertheless, unless Ankalaev chooses to take things horizontal—he
is not nearly as keen on doing this despite his reputation, only
doing so in his first triumphant meeting against Alex
Pereira. Against “Poatan,” he did attempt a clean dozen shots.
While he did not land a single one, the mere threat of the takedown
allowed him to get in on the stoic striker and do some work. A few
faked shots against “Hitman,” whose takedown defense has already
come into question despite his recent successes, would pay
immediate dividends.

We get to the meat of the order. More specifically, the pork. John
Pork. “Wild Chanco” Zaynukov, who actually had his nickname on
Fight Finder as “John Pork” until specifically reaching out to
request that it be taken down. Robert
Whittaker didn’t have the same problem when Ben Fowlkes and
Chad Dundas first crowned him “Bobby Knuckles” in the always-great
“Co-Main Event Podcast” and it stuck. Even though Damian
Rzepecki will hold a slight bit more experience and more
stoppages on his ledger, he and Zaynukov stand at different
terraces in their respective careers.

To get signed through the promotion, the Dagestan native in the
pipeline of the Abdulmanap Nurmagomedov School still had to work up
through UAE
Warriors to get a slot on
Dana White’s Contender Series last year. His strength of
schedule? In his second pro bout, he crushed a 4-2 opponent. Not so
much for Rzepecki, who cruised on Poland’s second- or third-most
significant organization of Fight Exclusive Night and succeeded as
well when stopping off Spanish-based World of Warriors FC for a bit
of the ol’ ultraviolence. Zaynukov may be shorter with a slightly
lesser reach, but he already has shown that he can put a pace on an
opponent and practically grind them to dust. See also: what he will
likely do on Saturday morning.

How does the UFC handle this third Magomed, one making his
promotional debut with a 100% finish rate? They throw him against
one of the chinniest competitors on the light heavyweight roster
with a win under his belt. In Brendson
Ribeiro‘s last three outings—all first-round stoppage losses—he
has offered up just 21 significant strikes on his own end. On the
way down, he succumbed to multiple takedowns, one of which leading
to an eventual fight-ending rear-naked choke. Face-first drum solos
performed by Azamat
Murzakanov and Oumar Sy also
demonstrated a strategy Tuchalov can certainly replicate. The line
at -900 is quite pricey, so he is best suited as an attachment to a
parlay like this one. If you are stone-cold certain, for example,
that Valter
Walker does bad things to Thomas
Petersen? Why not increase that multiplier by a shade? On this
Prime Picks prognostication, it’s Magomeds all the way down.

Valter
Walker wins inside distance (+105)

To say that heel hook aficionado Walker is a “meme fighter” is not
entirely the insult in which it was originally coined. He fights
like he is playing a game, and his signature move seems to be a
challenge for him to hit against anyone he faces now. Now that he
is known for it, the veritable
knuckleballer-but-in-MMA-terms seeks greater fame for landing
this low-percentage, high-risk leglock. A move many accomplished
fighters have stifled by simply punching. Punches to the noggin are
an exceptional defense when both arms of the other athlete are
wrapped around your leg.

We very seriously considered the play pitched by our own Sean
Sheehan, who drilled even deeper to push for Walker by first-round
sub at around +450. If you think a speedy heel hook is in the
cards, by all means, get that steak dinner. We will err ever so
slightly on the side of caution. Not only will we open up the
window to allow for any stoppage from the Russian by way of Brazil,
but we will also push the bounds of that finish coming any time
before the final buzzer. This allows situations like Walker
clubbing, trying a sub and then realizing he could just pound his
way to a victory. Or, if Petersen’s credentials on the ground
extend beyond offensive wrestling and grant him a modicum of
survivability to reach the second stanza, it still hits. Beyond
this play, discard your fear of missing out with our “FOMO
five-dollar flier” on Sheehan’s timestamped call below, which may
be worth contributing to if you wish to laugh and meme your way to
the bank.