Thrive’s Joshua Kushner chides Silicon Valley VCs over AI euphoria

Thrive Holdings has bought more than 70 businesses and has a team of 35 engineers. Kushner says its accounting platform uses agents to produce tax returns 30% faster with 98% accuracy, and its IT services firm has agents independently solving half of its help desk tickets.

Still, Thrive’s strategy is working in part because it nabbed stakes in some of the industry’s best-performing startups ever. Its $516 million 2022 early-stage fund, for instance, made early bets on OpenAI, Anduril, and SpaceX, and is now worth more than $3.7 billion as of the end of June, Bloomberg reports. Thrive has, over its 15 years, increased its stakes in all of them (and also had a sizeable stake in Cursor, which just closed its sale to SpaceX).

It has also backed Wiz, Ramp, and Stripe, to name a few other big names. Plus, it has led seed investments in new labs like Essential AI, founded by former Google Brain researcher Ashish Vaswani, the lead writer of the famed “Transformers” paper that spawned today’s AI industry.

All told, Thrive has $60 billion of assets under management, Kushner revealed in the letter. He reports impressive profits: a gross internal rate of return (IRR) across all funds of 41% and a net IRR of 33%. Thrive has returned more than $1 billion of liquidity to its investors in the last 12 months alone, he said.

“There may be an opportunity for billions of dollars in additional liquidity in the coming quarters,” he promises.

He doesn’t specify which companies are headed for their exits but obviously, the SpaceX IPO was a start, and OpenAI is working toward its own public debut.

It should be pointed out that both Kushner’s and Andreessen’s approaches obviously work in terms of making money. Andreessen Horowitz returned $25 billion to its investors between 2009 and 2025, according to the last leaked returns, reported by Eric Newcomer.

Thrive’s philosophy of concentrating capital may not even be possible for most smaller, scrappy emerging seed funds, whose founders weren’t born into the kind of access that the son of a billionaire New York real-estate family has.

That said, Kushner’s general premise of how overheated Silicon Valley’s AI investing has become isn’t wrong either. As he puts it: “Not every fast-growing business is exceptional. And not every exceptional company is a great investment at every price. Our responsibility is to maintain those distinctions.”