The Outlook - Week 9 (JAC-BAL, CIN-ATL, DAL-IND, NYJ-KC, DET-MIA)

Hello folks and welcome to Week 9! Week 8 brought us some awesome offensive shootouts like Raiders-Jets and a turnover-filled Bengals-Titans game that turned into an overtime scorefest. On the flip side, we had a game in Tampa Bay against the Atlanta Falcons where it may have been more appropriate to have both teams don leather helmets and play the game in black and white. In something unseen in 52 years, a team (Tampa Bay) won a game without completing a pass. Absolutely insane.

That said, we’re past the halfway mark in the fantasy football season and we’ve also got a bunch of quarterback turmoil, with Jacoby Brissett getting benched (and then reportedly traded to the Ravens) and Gardner Minshew being named the starting quarterback of the Cardinals on Monday, plus Baltimore running through THREE signal-callers. Players like Tanner McKee, Daniel Jones and possibly Kyler Murray are also on the hot seat, so now is the time to pay close attention to these player situations because the value of the pass-catchers and the offenses they reside in could change on a dime. Case in point: Zay Flowers, who went from an undeniable player with insane upside to somebody you may not be able to start this week. We’re also almost into the double-digit weeks, so we have to keep our heads on a swivel!

We’ve compiled the groupings of games here to make it easier to find the games you want:

• Block 1: JAC-BAL, CIN-ATL, DAL-IND, NYJ-KC, DET-MIA
• Block 2: CLE-NO, NYG-PHI, LAR-WAS, DEN-CAR, HOU-LAC
• Block 3: LV-SF, GB-NE, ARI-SEA, TB-CHI, BUF-MIN

“The Outlook” will give you the details, stats, analysis, recommendations and everything else you need to make informed fantasy football decisions. Every fantasy-relevant player on each team will be profiled in this article. We want everyone reading this to bring home championships in their fantasy leagues!

I’m incredibly excited to bring this article to all of you this season and I hope you enjoy the ride. If you have any questions, feel free to find me on Bluesky (@ktompkinsii.bsky.social) or tag me in a post with any lineup questions. I’ll do my best to answer them for you.

Let’s get into it!

All game and implied point totals listed were compiled via DraftKings Sportsbook on Tuesday for JAC-BAL, CIN-ATL, DAL-IND, NYJ-KC and DET-MIA.

Teams on bye in Week 9: Pittsburgh Steelers and Tennessee Titans

Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens

• Favorite: Jaguars -10
• Game Total: 40.5
• Implied Point Total: Jaguars 25.25, Ravens 15.25

Jaguars Fantasy Notes

Must-Start Players: RB Bhayshul Tuten (if he plays)

QB Trevor Lawrence

Lawrence did not do a lot of heavy lifting in Week 8, as he only threw the ball 14 times. He still finished with over 200 passing yards, threw for three touchdowns and managed 10 yards on the ground. That’s about as efficient as it gets, and he still finished as a top-12 quarterback (QB11) on the week. The Jaguars’ offense is humming, and so is Lawrence, with three straight QB12-or-better fantasy finishes. Next up are the Ravens, who pose little threat to the Jags while they’re on this roll and are tossing out their third-string quarterback to the wolves on a short week.

Fantasy Advice: Lock in Lawrence as a near-universal fantasy starter for Thursday against Baltimore.

WR Parker Washington

On an afternoon with just 14 pass attempts, 10 completions and an absolute drubbing of their opponent, it was not going to be a day for the passing game. Washington has been slightly boom-or-bust this season, but he’ll deliver more often than not. Against Baltimore, the Ravens’ defense will likely get worn down by their lack of offensive firepower, which could provide Washington with an avenue to get back on the stat sheet and into the good graces of fantasy managers once again as the top pass-catcher in Jacksonville.

Fantasy Advice: Washington is WR21 at the halfway point of the season, and he should be able to build on that with a good matchup against the Ravens in Week 9.

TE Brenton Strange

Only one Jaguar had more than two targets in Week 8 against the Colts (Jakobi Meyers with three), but Strange caught both of his targets and co-led with Tuten with 55 yards. It wasn’t a “great” game, but the Jaguars only had 14 pass attempts as an unwilling victim of Jacksonville’s game script. Things should open up a little bit more against the Ravens on Thursday night, as Baltimore allows the 13th-most fantasy points per game to the tight end position and Strange has operated as the second target in this offense over the last month.

Fantasy Advice: Strange is on the TE1/TE2 borderline, but his volume in normal games has been solid. I’m happy to throw him into my tight end slot this week, where he can collect some volume and potentially a touchdown as well.

Ravens Fantasy Notes

Must-Start Players: None

RB Derrick Henry

The entire offense was out of sorts for Baltimore after Lamar Jackson was knocked out of the game with a thumb injury on the first play. The Ravens then lost Tyler Huntley to a turf toe injury. Henry only saw 11 carries for 53 yards but still scored the Ravens’ lone touchdown on the afternoon. With a short week and Jacksonville looming, Henry should get a ton of work in Week 9 against the Jaguars. That said, the Jaguars probably know what’s coming, despite losing the anchor of their run defense, defensive tackle Davon Hamilton, for the season with a torn quad in Week 8. Third-string quarterback Joe Fagnano from UConn played the rest of Week 8 and is tabbed to start Week 9, so it may be an adventure for Henry to face fewer than eight defenders in the box.

Fantasy Advice: While Henry is slated to get plenty of work, it may be a bit rough overall. Still, Henry is no worse than a high-end RB2 with volume on his side in Week 9.

WR Zay Flowers

We know what Flowers can do, but it’s a murky situation when you lose Jackson and Huntley during the game and have to toss out an undrafted rookie quarterback to play the majority of the contest. It’s not Flowers’ fault that he was thrust into a spot where he couldn’t get a single catch. Flowers earned three targets, and on a day when the receivers had just 12 receptions as a whole, you can understand what happened. Making matters worse is that the Ravens have to play Jacksonville on a short week. It seems likely that Baltimore eventually trades for a quarterback to help save its season (reports on Wednesday say Jacoby Brissett will be the lucky fellow), but anybody from this passing game is risky right now, including Flowers.

Fantasy Advice: I have Flowers on a bunch of teams, and I’m slotting him in only if I need to. If you have wide receiver depth on your fantasy team, now might be a time to play it a bit safer with Flowers until we get the long week to figure out what the Ravens can do at quarterback and then reassess.

Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons

• Favorite: Bengals -3
• Game Total: 52.5
• Implied Point Total: Bengals 27.75, Falcons 24.75

Bengals Fantasy Notes

Must-Start Players: QB Joe Burrow, WR Ja’Marr Chase, WR Tee Higgins

RB Chase Brown

While we had some concerns about Brown’s workload over the last couple of weeks after a costly fumble led Perine to come in and steal a bunch of carries, Brown’s workload more or less went back to normal against the Titans in Week 8. Brown was a solid third receiver for the Bengals in their passing game after Chase and Higgins, racking up nine targets and catching eight for 46 yards while adding 53 yards rushing on 12 carries. We’ll take accumulation by any means necessary, and it could have been a bigger day had there not been a holding penalty on what was a Brown wheel route for a touchdown.

Fantasy Advice: Atlanta just surrendered roughly 3.4 billion rushing yards to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 8. You think the Falcons are mad? Still, with Brown piling up touches however he can get them, he’s a solid RB2 here.

TE Mike Gesicki

Gesicki has a touchdown in every single game this season but one, and he’s starting to see more time on the field because of it. Gesicki played a season-high 74% of routes and 68% of snaps while putting up a 4-76-1 line on six targets against the Titans in their 43-36 score-a-thon. He has now caught a touchdown in five straight games, which is the longest such streak in the NFL, regardless of position. A score this week against the Falcons would tie the NFL record of six straight games with a receiving touchdown by a tight end, set by Rob Gronkowski in 2011 and matched by Mark Andrews in 2024. Only Jaxon Smith-Njigba has more receiving touchdowns this year (nine) than Gesicki. While Gesicki has some tough target competition with Chase and Higgins, a thin fantasy position like tight end needs more solid producers. Gesicki has been that this season.

Fantasy Advice: With the routes and snaps on his side, Gesicki all of a sudden has a path to carving out low-end TE1 treatment this week against the Falcons, a middle-of-the-road team against fantasy tight ends this season.

Falcons Fantasy Notes

Must-Start Players: RB Bijan Robinson, WR Drake London

TE Kyle Pitts

It was one of the ugliest NFL games I’ve ever laid eyes on, so I’m willing to throw out both passing games from Week 8 and pretend that game didn’t exist. No quarterback would have survived playing in what essentially was a monsoon. The Bengals continue to be a plus matchup for tight ends who face them, with players like Dalton Schultz, Brenton Strange and Gunnar Helm all having excellent games against them this season. Pitts might be the best they’ve seen this season, and while we can throw out Week 8, Pitts was on a roll before that with four touchdowns in three games and five receptions in each of those contests. I’m hoping we can get a bit of a reset with the Falcons’ passing game (and Michael Penix Jr.) and potentially get some offensive fireworks going at home.

Fantasy Advice: This week could be a nice bounce-back spot for the Falcons’ passing game and offense as a whole, so I’m willing to toss Pitts into my lineup as a low-end TE1 with some nice upside.

Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts

• Favorite: Cowboys -6
• Game Total: 51.5
• Implied Point Total: Cowboys 28.75, Colts 22.75

Cowboys Fantasy Notes

Must-Start Players: WR CeeDee Lamb

QB Dak Prescott

Prescott had a four-game stretch from Week 3 to Week 6 when he was starting to sow some doubt in fantasy managers’ minds, but the last two games have assuaged people’s fears. Finishing as QB6 in Week 7 against the Eagles and then as QB9 against the Cardinals, Prescott is back in line as a solid option, a tier below the elite players at the position but still plenty startable thanks to the weapons in his offense. Prescott threw for 195 yards and a touchdown while adding 20 yards on the ground and his first rushing score of the season.

It does feel like there’s more meat left on the bone when it comes to the potential of this Cowboys offense and the passing game in particular, especially considering the volume from Week 3 through Week 6, when Prescott had 40-plus pass attempts in all four games. But alas, it’s still been solid. Enter the Colts, and while Javonte Williams has been a bit less efficient, the hope is that Prescott can rack up some passing production in a rout before ceding work to the running game.

Fantasy Advice: Continue starting Prescott as a solid QB1 in a cakewalk matchup in Indianapolis against the Colts.

WR George Pickens

After a Week 6 game against the Buccaneers with 13 targets and a Week 7 game against the Eagles with 10 targets, Pickens has just nine targets combined in his last two games, with six receptions for 105 yards and a touchdown. Lamb has more than doubled Pickens in targets, with 20 in that same two-game stretch. Pickens could only piece together a two-catch, 48-yard effort on three targets against the Cardinals in Week 8. To his credit, he had a great 59-yard touchdown where he was on the ground and continued running, only for it to be nullified by a holding penalty. Still, Pickens is a bit behind Lamb in the pecking order rather than being a close second target. Perhaps the ankle sprain suffered by Jake Ferguson could further consolidate targets at the top for both Lamb and Pickens?

Fantasy Advice: With a game against the Colts and considering how putrid they’ve been, the hope is that the passing game gets its licks in against the Colts’ defense before the running game salts things away. I have Pickens as a mid-range WR3 with obvious upside.

Colts Fantasy Notes

Must-Start Players: None

RB Jonathan Taylor

The trade of all-world left guard Quenton Nelson to Seattle certainly hurts the Colts’ running game and Taylor, but it also affects the entire makeup of the team as it stands right now. Taylor remains the team’s biggest trade chip, and he’s just in purgatory right now. Touching the ball just 12 times before heading out and ceding work to Seth McGowan and DJ Giddens, Taylor totaled 47 yards on eight carries and four receptions as Indianapolis was blown out by Jacksonville. Taylor’s talent is obviously immense, and we hope he can have a chance on a new team to recoup some of this fantasy value. However, it’s a rough situation in real life AND in fantasy football.

Fantasy Advice: If you still roster Taylor, you’re starting him. The problem is that you can’t exactly feel great about it, but you can’t bench him either. The role is still really good in somewhat normal game scripts, so trot him out as a low-end RB1 and let’s hope he can run all over the Cowboys’ front, which ranks in the bottom five in allowing fantasy points to running backs.

Colts WRs

The targets for the Colts’ wide receivers were pretty condensed, with 12 of 14 targets going to Josh Downs and Keenan Allen. Allen led the Colts in all categories except targets, with seven looks that he parlayed into a 7-67 line. Meanwhile, Downs, the subject of many trade rumors, brought in four of five targets for 23 yards. He caught Jones’ only touchdown pass and the team’s only score of the afternoon. Still, it’s not a passing game you’re targeting, but a good matchup against the Cowboys makes both Downs and Allen at least halfway decent options to throw into your flex. That’s how far we’ve fallen with this offense.

Fantasy Advice: Both Downs and Allen are flex throw-ins against Dallas at home if you need to get players into your lineup because of bye weeks or injuries.

TE Tyler Warren

Ten targets? Hell yeah, we love to see it. A 4-18-0 line off those 10 targets? BOO THIS MAN.

For real, though, this offense is extremely poor, and Jones at the helm doesn’t help anything. That was a 33.3% target share, if you’re into #themetrics, but production does seem hard to come by for anyone outside of garbage time with the Colts. At least in Warren’s return to the lineup, he ran 78% of routes per dropback. Warren is plenty startable and there will be better weeks, but we’re seeing more and more that Jones is not fit to be the quarterback of this team (or any team, for that matter) with each subsequent week.

Fantasy Advice: Give Warren low-end TE1 treatment against the Cowboys in Week 9, as it’s a fairly solid matchup even for this Colts offense.

New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs

• Favorite: Chiefs -9.5
• Game Total: 47.5
• Implied Point Total: Chiefs 28.5, Jets 19

Jets Fantasy Notes

Must-Start Players: None

Jets RBs

Braelon Allen, the ZeroRB community thanks you for your weeks of service as the starting running back of the New York Jets. From Week 4 to Week 8, Allen was RB15 in PPR with 16.5 fantasy points per game and finished as a top-10 fantasy running back in three of the last four weeks.

With the pending return of Breece Hall in Week 9 against the Chiefs, I find it difficult to just assume Hall is getting all of the work back and Allen goes back into the box as merely a spell back. Allen has 100% earned a bigger role in the running game. Maybe something like a Blake Corum-lite role? We’ll have to see, but if Hall is active, he’ll likely lead the team in carries. Allen should have roughly eight to 10 touches as well, depending on the game script. The best-case scenario for Allen is a Kyle Monangai-type role where he’s taking full drives and short-yardage work, too. All of that said, I think Allen is still flex-worthy, even in this matchup against the Chiefs.

Fantasy Advice: With Hall returning, pencil him in as a low-end RB2 for now until he gets his legs under him. Allen is still playable as a flex, and then we’ll go from there in terms of what the roles will look like for both of them in this offense.

WR Garrett Wilson

After a two-game hiatus from fantasy relevance, during which Wilson totaled nine targets, six receptions and 70 yards in games against the Patriots and Dolphins, Wilson returned with a team-leading 12 targets but caught only half of them for a 6-83-0 line. Geno Smith sent balls downfield with volume as Wilson racked up 184 air yards, somehow only second on the team to Adonai Mitchell‘s 225 air yards. Four hundred-plus air yards between TWO players is actually crazy, but Smith was CHUCKIN’ it. Wilson has some target competition behind him now on what’s the best Jets offense we’ve had in some time. That said, he is still the top dog in this passing attack.

Fantasy Advice: Wilson’s been a little hit-or-miss at times, but continue to treat him as a solid WR2 with upside on an offense with a veteran quarterback willing to throw the ball.

Jets WRs

Adonai Mitchell missed four games with a hand injury but came back and didn’t miss a beat after his 11-target, 6-63 line against the Packers in Week 2. He put up a massive 7-142-1 line on 225 air yards, the second-highest mark of Week 8. Wilson’s lead role seems insulated here, but after two weeks of 100-plus yards and a touchdown from Omar Cooper Jr., Cooper didn’t earn a single target despite running 74% of routes. I think Mitchell producing massively while Cooper dropped off so dramatically shows the volatility of the Jets’ offense. We know these players have ceilings, but they also have really low, almost zero-point floors in any given week. Despite Mitchell blowing up, he’s not a must-start fantasy option by any means, just as Cooper isn’t a must-start either.

Fantasy Advice: Despite pointing out the volatility of the Jets’ pass-catchers, Wilson is a mid-range WR2 against the Chiefs. As for Mitchell and Cooper, they’re high-end flex plays against a tough Kansas City defense.

Chiefs Fantasy Notes

Must-Start Players: QB Patrick Mahomes, RB Kenneth Walker III

WR Rashee Rice

Back in his first game action since Week 3 against the Dolphins, Rice brought a level of normalcy to the Chiefs’ passing game. Rice got right back to what he does best: a low aDOT (4.1 yards), with a team-leading eight targets, seven receptions and 54 yards plus a touchdown. Even more impressive is Rice leading the team in targets on just 53% of routes. He’ll get ramped up for more routes and snaps over the next week or two. The passing game has been very spotty without Rice, as Xavier Worthy clearly isn’t capable of being a top target in any offense. Still, Rice slotting back into a position where he leads the charge in the passing game most weeks puts him right back into WR2 territory each week for Patrick Mahomes and company.

Fantasy Advice: With the Jets looming for the Chiefs, Rice is a safe WR2 for fantasy and a solid start for fantasy managers as his workload ramps up.

TE Travis Kelce

Averaging just shy of seven targets per game over the past three games, Kelce is becoming a floor play without much ceiling. Kelce added a 5-67-0 line on seven targets, and while he’s putting forth a solid target share and decent efficiency, he has just two touchdowns on the season. I say floor play, but he’s pacing for 100 targets, 70 receptions, 996 yards and five touchdowns. Maybe it’s a bit dramatic, but he looks just a step slower, even compared with last season. Here’s hoping that Kelce, with Rice back in the fold, can draw a little less coverage and compile production while adding some red-zone targets to his repertoire.

Fantasy Advice: Kelce’s floor as a fantasy tight end is worth something, so continue starting him as a low-end TE1 while hoping he can find his way into the end zone sometime soon.

Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins

• Favorite: Lions -7
• Game Total: 50.5
• Implied Point Total: Lions 28.75, Dolphins 21.75

Lions Fantasy Notes

Must-Start Players: QB Jared Goff, RB Jahmyr Gibbs, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR Jameson Williams

TE Sam LaPorta

LaPorta earned just a single target in the Lions’ win against the Packers, and much was said about LaPorta’s comments regarding his contract and future with the Lions in connection with that. In Week 8, LaPorta was utilized a bit more with five targets, but managed just a 3-33-0 line. While he’s still running routes on 75% or more of dropbacks each week, LaPorta is very much touchdown-dependent right now, with his only three top-10 fantasy finishes coming in weeks when he scored touchdowns (Weeks 2, 4 and 5). Not being able to get there through volume is a bit tough for the talent we know LaPorta has, but we have to call a spade a spade at some point.

Fantasy Advice: I’m flipping LaPorta from a TE1 to a TE2 for the matchup against the Dolphins, where he’s getting harder and harder to start by the week while players like Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams are getting there each week.

Dolphins Fantasy Notes

Must-Start Players: None

QB Malik Willis

Hear me out: Willis has a two-week cakewalk of matchups starting this week where he can be your fantasy quarterback if you need one. Willis has multiple touchdowns in back-to-back weeks, and while he only totaled two rushing yards last week against the Patriots, he’s improving little by little each week. With the Lions and Colts on tap for the next two weeks, I can’t think of two better matchups for Willis to be a top-10 fantasy quarterback and really give your team a shot in the arm leading up to the fantasy football playoff push.

Fantasy Advice: A priority streamer in Week 9, Willis is a low-end QB1 or high-end QB2 this week against a porous Lions defense that continues to hemorrhage yards and points.

RB Ollie Gordon III

Last week’s game against the Patriots represented Gordon III’s worst performance as a starting running back, tallying just 69 yards and nothing on the receiving end. Gordon’s passing-game utilization is nearly zero, so without much to support his production, this down game was inevitable, especially on a bad team that’s near the bottom in terms of offensive environments for fantasy football. Gordon is still a solid starter on fantasy rosters, but this game illustrates the low, low floor of being a one-dimensional starting running back for the Dolphins.

Fantasy Advice: The Lions are a big pass-funnel defense, so it could be tough sledding for Gordon this week. We’ll call him a low-end RB2 with the hope that he runs one into the end zone at home against Detroit.

This article originally appeared on The Huddle: The Outlook – Week 9 (JAC-BAL, CIN-ATL, DAL-IND, NYJ-KC, DET-MIA)