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The biggest statistical curse that'll haunt Victor Wembanyama, Spurs in the long-term

Nairavoice · Oct 8, 2026 · 5 min read

The biggest statistical curse that’ll haunt Victor Wembanyama, Spurs in the long-term originally appeared on The Sporting News.
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From every angle, the San Antonio Spurs are a scary team. Coach Mitch Johnson has a roster that can seemingly contend for years to come. With the exception of Tobias Harris and Harrison Barnes, everyone on the playing roster is incredibly young. Victor Wembanyama will be a perennial candidate for NBA MVP and DPOY. He will surely challenge David Robinson and Tim Duncan for the title of San Antonio’s greatest legend. Dylan Harper, Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson, and Stephon Castle are also just about to enter their primes. But one roster-construction concern may start to matter.

Biggest statistical curse that’ll haunt Spurs, Wembanyama

To understand where this worry comes from, you need a clear picture of the Spurs’ production. Last season, their raw numbers were insane. They matched that with the second-best record in the NBA, 62 wins and 20 losses. Here’s the full picture of their offense and defense during the 2025-26 season.

(All numbers are from Basketball Reference)

ORTGeFG%TOV%ORB%FT/FGADRTGOppEFG%OppTOV%DRB%FT/FGA119.60.5590.1180.2620.215111.30.5220.1150.7730.1804th7th5th11th10th3rd3rd26th1st1st

More:Spurs’ Victor Wembanyama blasts state of NBA and betting

Spurs’ Offensive Production Ceiling

At first glance, nothing seems wrong with the Spurs that Coach Mitch Johnson needs to worry about. Sure, they don’t force turnovers from their point-of-attack defense, as shown by their 11.5% OppTOV%, which ranks 26th in the NBA. But the problem lies when you crunch these numbers against the league averages, scaled for the long term. Victor Wembanyama is here to stay for the long haul, but the same might not be said for guys like Dylan Harper, Devin Vassell, Stephon Castle, and everyone on their supporting cast.

Offensively, the Spurs have already hit their ceiling, as shown when their gradient four factors are plotted alongside the 2025-26 NBA averages. The plot looks like this, with a max slope of 1.07 and a sensitivity of 1.733.

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Don’t worry! We’ll dissect what all of this means for the Spurs.

The first thing to note is that they are outperforming nearly every team in the NBA in major statistical categories. With the exception of their average ORB% (26.2%, that’s 11th in the league) and OppTOV% (11.5%, that’s 26th in the league), everything else looks fine. The growth of both Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper as point-of-attack defenders means that they will force more steals in the long run. Furthermore, adding Tobias Harris and developing young wings like Carter Bryant means a less cluttered interior for offensive rebounding. Second-chance possessions through cleaning the glass are concerns that will be fixed over time. So, that’s not the main worry here.

Who tf is stopping Wemby from winning MVP and DPOY this season?? https://t.co/r7kWC9pFEl

— Spurs Culture (@SpursCulture) October 3, 2026

The typical conclusion is that the Spurs have nothing to worry about. But that’s precisely where the worries will come in. See, they already have an offensive sensitivity of 1.733 and a max slope of 1.07. Together, that means Wembanyama and Co. have hit their roster’s production ceiling. Any marginal changes where Coach Johnson asks for them to ‘shoot better’ or ‘play harder’ will only yield small increases in their offensive rating, defensive rating, and overall win-loss record. The Spurs are nearing the curse of diminishing marginal returns.

In the simplest of words, their current roster seems to be near the production ceiling that they can all offer.

More:“Hungry, Ambitious”: Victor Wembanyama describes Spurs’ mindset entering 2026-27 NBA season

Spurs’ Defensive Production Ceiling

But, this is only the offensive picture, right? Let’s then look into the Spurs defense!

Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs have a way higher defensive ceiling and are even more volatile on that side of the floor. So, they aren’t as capped defensively when scaled to their offense. But the yield in defensive adjustments will only get smaller through time once Harper, Vassell, Johnson, Bryant, and Castle become better defenders. Once they also replace the old-heads in Tobias Harris and Harrison Barnes, the Spurs will also become a better squad defensively. Not to mention, Wembanyama will only swat more shots, steal more live balls, and clean the defensive glass better as time goes by.

More:NBA insider believes the Spurs are considering starting all three of their star guards

Wembanyama, The Spurs, and the NBA Salary Cap

So, where does the worry lie? A young team nearing its production ceiling while salaries get higher typically means that their championship window will only close from there on. Victor Wembanyama already took a $51 million pay cut to keep the core intact for another title-run chance. It remains to be seen whether other Spurs will do the same. The contract situation for the Spurs also says that their payroll will only soar in the coming years. The core salary picture looks like this.

AAVContract EndKeldon Johnson$18.5 million2026Harrison Barnes$8 million2026Stephon Castle$10.3 million2027Tobias Harris$15.4 million2027Devin Vassell$27 million2028Dylan Harper$14 million2028Julian Champagnie$15 million2028Luke Kornet$10.1 million2028Carter Bryant$5.8 million2028De’Aaron Fox$55.4 million2029Victor Wembanyama$51 million2031

With all of them helping reach the Spurs’ production ceiling, salaries will inevitably rise too. Some contracts below $15 million will start to rise if Coach Johnson starts turning this team into a dynastic squad. Due to the hard salary cap in place, there is only one certainty when a team nears its production ceiling in the NBA. It is not that they will win the Larry O’Brien trophy or that a large bulk of the core take a pay cut to stay intact. It’s that they only have limited time together under Coach Johnson. Someone is bound to leave for a better contract in free agency or be traded for cheaper assets that keep them afloat.

This Spurs squad has the potential to be a dynasty, yes. But the woe of diminishing returns in the 2020s NBA is unbeaten. The Los Angeles Lakers, Milwaukee Bucks, Denver Nuggets, and Boston Celtics have already seen their cores crumble. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Oklahoma City Thunder are also seeing their championship players leave slowly. Time is ticking for Wembanyama and the Spurs. The 2026-27 NBA season could be their last realistic shot to run the whole squad back and snag the Larry O’Brien trophy.