Russia ramps up threats against Ukraine. What does that say about the war?

BBC/Lee Durant

Moscow has stepped up its threats to Ukraine, warning of “consistent, systematic strikes on Kyiv targeting its military industrial complex”.

It has also warned foreign citizens and diplomatic staff to leave the city “as soon as possible”.

It sounds ominous, but does it signal something new? By ramping up its rhetoric, is Russia also about to intensify its war?

In one sense, such threats are nothing new.

Ukraine’s foreign ministry points out that Russia has been targeting towns and cities every week for more than four years now.

It assesses “the overall level of security threats posed by Russia to Kyiv and other cities remains the same as previous months and years”.

What is new is the language used by the Kremlin to justify such attacks – and it is related to one specific incident.

Moscow has accused Ukraine of deliberately killing 21 students in a strike last week on Starobilsk in Luhansk province.

Ukraine still insists it hit a military facility in Russian-occupied territory.

But Moscow is presenting the incident, and what it claims to be a deliberate attack on civilians, as a legitimate reason for retaliation.

BBC/Lee Durant

In the past, such attacks have rarely required such an explanation. Nor has Russia shown much remorse about causing its own civilian casualties in Ukraine.

Any retaliation on Kyiv would only likely kill more.

But Ivan Stupak, a military analyst and former Ukrainian intelligence officer, believes it is a sign that Moscow is struggling to control the narrative of the war.

He says: “When you have problems with the economy and Russian society, then there’s pressure for revenge.”

The rhetoric may well reflect growing frustration and anger in the Kremlin, but Andrii Kovalenko of Ukraine’s National Security and Defence Council believes there are other reasons for the threats, unrelated to the Luhansk attack.

The first is Russia’s lack of success on the battlefield, he says, adding: “In the absence of strategic results on the front, the Kremlin is trying to exert psychological pressure on Ukraine.”

He believes that pressure is also being applied to Ukraine’s allies, with Moscow warning diplomatic staff to leave Kyiv.

Strong European support for Ukraine, both politically and military, has long been seen in the Kremlin as a major obstacle to its war aims.

Thirdly, Kovalenko says, there “is an attempt to divert attention from Ukraine’s long-range strikes on Russian territory and its own ability to defend its own territories, including Moscow”.

In short, the war – now entering its fifth year – is currently not going in the right direction for Moscow.

BBC/Lee Durant

The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War has assessed “the character of the war is shifting in favour of Ukrainian forces – at least for now”.

It says Russia is losing more soldiers to make fewer gains. Russian casualties have been outpacing its monthly recruitment figures for five months.

The pressure is increasing in Moscow.

Nigel Gould-Davies, of the International Institute of Strategic Studies, says with Russia “facing growing industrial and manpower constraints, it must soon decide whether to forcibly mobilise its economy and society”.

Forcing people to sign up to join the military “would be highly disruptive and unpopular”, he says, and could carry major risks for Russia’s stability.

But none of this alters the threat to Ukraine.

Kyiv is still recovering from Russia’s most recent “revenge attack” over the weekend, when Russia launched nearly 600 drones and 90 missiles, most of them directed at the capital.

Ukraine’s air defences destroyed most of the drones, but 35 missiles still hit a target.

The bombardment included the rare use of at least one Russian hypersonic Oreshnik missile – fitted with six warheads and extremely difficult to shoot down using conventional air defence systems.

Stupak says the missile’s primary use is for “propaganda purposes”. So far, he says, Russian Oreshniks have only been carrying inert warheads and have caused limited damage.

Kyiv may well struggle to deal with similar large-scale, repeated attacks.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has renewed his appeals to allies for more air defence systems.

Yurii Inhat, a spokesman for Ukraine’s Air Force, says the main problem remains “the limited number of interceptor missiles available for Ukraine’s air defences”.

US-made Patriots remain the only effective weapon for shooting down Russia’s ballistic missiles.

There may be signs that Russia is getting more desperate – but for Ukraine and its allies too, that may be a reason to worry.

Additional reporting by Anastasia Levchenko, Volodymyr Lozhko and Firle Davies

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