Prediction: Germany vs Paraguay

Germany and Paraguay will meet at Gillette Stadium on Monday afternoon, as both nations compete for a place in the last 16 of the 2026 World Cup.

Germany topped Group E despite losing its final group match to Ecuador, while Paraguay reached the knockout stage as one of the best third-place teams after recovering well from a difficult start.

Verdict: Germany to win and over 2.5 goals
Best odds: 19/20
Bookmaker: 888sport

Germany enters this round-of-32 tie as the clear favorite, but Julian Nagelsmann’s side is not coming into the match without questions. The four-time world champion opened the tournament with a 7-1 win over Curacao and then beat Ivory Coast 2-1, but a 2-1 defeat to Ecuador in the final group game brought some of the old doubts back.

That loss did not stop Germany from finishing top of Group E, but it did expose some familiar concerns. Germany still has defensive issues, and Nagelsmann has been under pressure because several of his biggest attacking names have not yet produced their best football at the tournament.

The positive is that Germany has still created chances and scored goals. Deniz Undav has emerged as a useful attacking option, while Kai Havertz, Jamal Musiala, and Florian Wirtz give Nagelsmann enough quality to break down a Paraguay side that is likely to defend deep for long spells.

This is the kind of match Germany is expected to win. Paraguay can make it awkward through physicality and defensive discipline, but Germany has more technical quality, more attacking depth, and more tournament experience. If the favorite finds an early goal, the game could open up.

Germany Team News

Nico Schlotterbeck is out for the rest of the World Cup after suffering an ankle injury against the Ivory Coast. His absence is a blow, especially because Germany has already looked vulnerable defensively at times.

Antonio Rudiger should continue in central defense after returning to the starting lineup against Ecuador. His pace, strength, and experience will be important against Paraguay’s direct attacking options.

Joshua Kimmich should remain one of Germany’s key players, either from midfield or full-back. His passing range and leadership could help Germany control the tempo and keep Paraguay pinned back.

Further forward, Nagelsmann has a decision to make. Musiala, Wirtz, and Havertz have not fully hit top form yet, while Undav has made a strong case for more minutes after his impact in the group stage.

Paraguay

Paraguay enters this match with nothing to lose. Gustavo Alfaro’s side started the tournament with a 4-1 defeat to the United States, but it responded well by beating Turkey 1-0 and drawing 0-0 with Australia.

That was enough to take Paraguay through as one of the best third-place teams. Given that this is Paraguay’s first World Cup appearance since 2010, reaching the knockout stage already represents a meaningful achievement.

The team’s identity is clear. Paraguay is physical, compact, and difficult to break down when it settles into its defensive structure. It will not be expected to dominate possession against Germany, but it can frustrate the favorite and look for moments in transition.

The challenge will be creating enough chances. Paraguay has not been a free-scoring side at this tournament, and Germany is likely to control long spells of the match. If Paraguay falls behind, it may have to take more risks than it would like.

Paraguay Team News

Miguel Almiron is available again after serving a suspension. His return is important because Paraguay needs his pace, experience, and ability to carry the ball in transition.

Diego Gomez is suspended because of card accumulation, which is a significant setback. He has been one of Paraguay’s most important midfield players, and his absence removes energy and creativity from the center of the pitch.

Omar Alderete is an injury doubt, so Gustavo Alfaro may need to adjust his defensive line. That would be a concern against a German attack that can move quickly around the penalty area.

Julio Enciso should be one of Paraguay’s main attacking threats. His ability to receive between the lines and create something from limited service could be crucial if Paraguay spends much of the game defending.

Germany vs Paraguay Key Factors to Consider

• Germany topped Group E after beating Curacao and the Ivory Coast before losing to Ecuador.
• Paraguay reached the knockout stage as one of the best third-place teams.
• Germany has scored 10 goals in three matches, but it has also conceded four.
• Paraguay has kept back-to-back clean sheets since losing 4-1 to the United States.
• Nico Schlotterbeck is out for Germany, while Diego Gomez is suspended for Paraguay.
• Miguel Almiron returns from suspension for Paraguay.

Conclusion

Paraguay should not be dismissed. Alfaro’s side has already shown resilience after a poor start to the tournament, and its defensive structure could make this a frustrating game for Germany if the favorite is not sharp.

Germany still has the stronger case. Nagelsmann’s side has more attacking variety, more individual quality, and more ways to create chances. The pressure is real after the Ecuador defeat, but this is also a good opportunity for Musiala, Wirtz, and Havertz to produce a more convincing knockout performance.

Paraguay can make the game physical and may even find a route to goal through Almiron or Enciso, especially with Germany still looking vulnerable defensively. Still, Germany should have enough to win, and the attacking profile of this team makes a goal-heavy selection more appealing than the short straight-win price.

Verdict: Germany to win and over 2.5 goals
Best odds: 19/20
Bookmaker: 888sport

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