With two-and-a-half weeks to go until training camps open around the NBA, the Detroit Pistons and free-agent center Jalen Duren still have yet to agree on a new contract.
At this point of the offseason, no team has enough cap space to sign Duren. According to Sam Amick and Hunter Patterson of The Athletic, the Pistons have “been unwilling to engage in sign-and-trade talks” with other teams about Duren, which leaves him with two options. He can either sign a new deal with the Pistons, or he can take his $9.6 million qualifying offer, which would make him an unrestricted free agent next summer.
On Thursday, longtime NBA insider Marc Stein reported he was seriously considering the former. A “source briefed on the process” told Stein that Duren is “increasingly prepared” to accept his qualifying offer “if no deal with Detroit materializes by the end of September.”
Amick and Patterson reported Friday that talks between the Pistons and Duren “have stalled in recent weeks,” although “it seemed as if the two sides were making progress” before then. They added that Detroit’s last offer “was a five-year deal in the $190 million range,” while Duren “is seeking at least $200 million.”
Would Duren really risk a potential nine-figure payday over a roughly $10 million difference? That’s what the Pistons have to weigh in the coming weeks as they decide whether to hold firm with their latest offer or move closer to Duren’s desired amount.
One look around the NBA should give them their answer: They should call his bluff.
Duren wouldn’t be the first restricted free agent in recent years to bet on himself by taking his qualifying offer. Quentin Grimes did so last year after he couldn’t come to terms with the Philadelphia 76ers on a new deal, although that didn’t work out quite as he hoped.
Heading into free agency last offseason, Tony Jones of The Athletic reported Grimes was “looking for a contract that averages $25 million per season.” He wound up signing a four-year, $60 million deal with the Los Angeles Lakers this past summer after playing out his $8.7 million qualifying offer last year.
Cam Thomas also took his $6.0 million qualifying offer with the Brooklyn Nets last fall. That backfired spectacularly on him.
The Nets wound up waiving Thomas after the February trade deadline. He signed a rest-of-season contract with the Milwaukee Bucks in early February, but they waived him in late March. He has yet to sign with another NBA team since then.
Granted, Thomas is an empty-calories scorer, whereas Duren is fresh off a career year in which he averaged 19.5 points and 10.5 rebounds per game en route to his first All-Star and All-NBA nods. If he stays healthy this year, he should be staring at a nine-figure windfall next summer.
Butif he takes his qualifying offer, he runs the risk of becoming the next cautionary tale like Victor Oladipo, DeMarcus Cousins or Isaiah Thomas.
Oladipo and the Indiana Pacers reportedly discussed a four-year extension worth roughly $80 million prior to the 2019-20 season, according to Ian Begley of SNY, but “discussions about an extension didn’t progress much from there.” At the time, Oladipo was coming off tearing his quad tendon in his right knee. He proceeded to play only 102 games over the ensuing four seasons and hasn’t appeared in an NBA game since 2023.
Cousins and Thomas also seemed to be headed for big-money deals until career-altering injuries torched their earning potential. Instead of landing nine-figure paydays, both wound up settling for minimum and near-minimum contracts over the remainder of their respective careers.
Even if Duren does suffer a major injury this coming season, he’s young enough that it’s difficult to imagine him vaporizing his earning potential to that extent. But that isn’t the only obstacle to him cashing in as an unrestricted free agent in 2027.
In late July, Keith Smith of Spotrac laid out the potential cap-space landscape for next summer. Granted, plenty will change between now and then.
This past summer, the Lakers, Nets and Chicago Bulls were the only three teams that entered free agency with significant cap space. In 2025, the Nets were the lone team with significant spending power.
Some teams are bound to cut into their projected cap space by acquiring players via trade in what’s become known as “pre-agency.” As potential free agents sign extensions and start flying off the board, teams have less reason to hoard cap space.
According to Amick and Patterson, the Sacramento Kings “have very strong interest in Duren,” while Duren “is known to be eyeing Sacramento as a desirable destination where he could thrive alongside Darius Acuff Jr. as an established building block.” They added that Duren has “three very serious suitors in all.” But will all three have enough spending power to sign him to a max or near-max deal next summer? Will any of them?
Based on the current $174 million projection for the 20227-28 salary cap, a max deal for Duren will start at $43.5 million. According to Smith’s projections, the Nets, Bulls, Pistons and Los Angeles Clippers are poised be the only four teams with that kind of cap space, barring other moves between now and then. (At $43.3 million, the Milwaukee Bucks aren’t far behind.)
If Duren does take his qualifying offer, teams will know that he’s guaranteed to become an unrestricted free agent next summer. That could incentivize his potential suitors to keep their books clean so they can make an honest run at him. But the financial advantage of going that route is fairly negligible for Duren based on current projections.
Because Duren made an All-NBA team last season, he’s eligible to sign a five-year deal worth up to $287.0 million with the Pistons right now. Next summer, other teams can only offer him a four-year, $187.05 million deal. Add that to his $9.6 million qualifying offer, and he’d earn roughly $197 million over the next half-decade.
If the Pistons are currently offering him a five-year, $190 million deal, that’s a $7 million difference at most. And that assumes Duren finds a team that’s willing to offer him a full max deal next offseason.
Granted, Amick and Patterson didn’t specify whether that $190 million would be fully guaranteed, or if the Pistons are only offering him a deal with a fifth-year team option. If the Pistons’ offer isn’t fully guaranteed, that could further swing Duren toward taking his qualifying offer and testing the free-agent market next offseason.
But if the Pistons are offering him a fully guaranteed $190 million deal, they could effectively tell Duren to take it or leave it, particularly with Ausar Thompson also up for a new deal.
“The Pistons have got to manage their books the right way,” an agent not involved in the Duren’s negotiations told ESPN’s Tim MacMahon. “They feel he should be rewarded. They have their concerns, but he’s their guy. To me, the right money is in the mid to high 30s. I think that’s the range, and I think this is just a staring contest that will end up in that area.
“If you’re Duren’s agent, are you really going to turn down $35-38 million [per year]? I wouldn’t screw around with it.”
An Eastern Conference executive was even more blunt.
“[Duren] and his agent aren’t being realistic,” the executive told MacMahon. “They’re anchored to the max-typer offer. But $35 million is not a discount. It’s a lot of money.”
The Pistons could get creative in how they structure Duren’s contract if they’re worried about how all of their impending deals could impede their ability to keep this core together. Otherwise, they have little incentive to budge from their offer at the moment.
The downside of Duren taking his qualifying offer is significant for the Pistons, as he could leave them empty-handed next summer if he signs elsewhere. But he’d be accepting an enormous risk for a minimal financial gain at best. The Pistons can reasonably hope that cooler heads will eventually prevail before that happens.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac and salary-cap information via RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.
This article was originally published on Forbes.com
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