Patriots 53-man roster projection before preseason opener vs. Colts

With joint practices and the preseason opener versus the Indianapolis Colts on the horizon, now is as good a time as ever for another 53-man roster projection. The New England Patriots are a solid team coming off a berth in the Super Bowl, but as you will see, there are some questions that lead to interesting choices especially toward the end of the roster.

If you want to compare to Matt St. Jean’s pre-camp roster projection, please click here. And with that said, let’s get into it.

In (2): Drake Maye, Tommy DeVito

Out (1): Behren Morton

Behren Morton has surprised me with how good he has looked in camp, but Tommy DeVito has looked better as Drake Maye’s primary backup, and knows the system. I would expect Morton to make it back to the practice squad.

In (3): Rhamondre Stevenson, TreVeyon Henderson, Jam Miller

Out (3): Terrell Jennings, Lan Larison, Myles Montgomery

Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson are roster locks, meaning that the real battle is for the RB3 spot. Lan Larison and Jam Miller have both looked good, and the Patriots liked Terrell Jennings enough last year to bring him back for his second year. The Patriots seem to want a more bruising back as their third option, which is why I chose to keep Miller over Larison.

I can see Larison making it instead, or even Jennings again, especially after the latter took extensive RB3 reps following his return from the non-football injury list. I like what I’ve seen from Miller, however, so he’s the one I’m keeping in this projection.

In (1): Reggie Gilliam

Out: N/A

Reggie Gilliam doesn’t have any competition now that Brock Lampe was cut and Jack Westover effectively moved back to tight end, so this is an easy one. The only thing that could prevent him from making the team is if the Patriots prefer keeping an extra tight end and having him play fullback, which seems incredibly unlikely. 

In (6): A.J. Brown, Romeo Doubs, DeMario Douglas, Kayshon Boutte, Mack Hollins, Kyle Williams

Out (6): Efton Chism III, Cameron Dorner, Kyle Dixon, Nick DeGennaro, Kobe Prentice, Tejhaun Palmer

IR (2): Jimmy Kibble, Jeremiah Webb

Wide receiver is the position that everyone has been talking about all camp. Will the Patriots keep seven? Will they keep six? Will they trade Kayshon Boutte? Will they trade DeMario Douglas? Will Kyle Williams make the team? All good questions, but the last one in particular was answered pretty emphatically by Mike Vrabel on Friday, so any projection should have Williams on it.

As for Douglas and Boutte, they both seem to be a big part of what the Patriots would like to do. It is hard to see their potential trade value outweigh their importance to New England’s receiver group and offensive operation as a whole: Douglas has been the best wide receiver in camp, with Boutte showing consistent chemistry with Drake Maye.

As for the final question, I have them keeping only six, with Chism on the outside looking in. He’s shown that he’s clearly better than the second-stringers, and looks like a real NFL player, but there are other positions of need on the team, so I have them only keeping six receivers.

Lastly, in regards to the UDFA guys, Cameron Dorner had been coming on in camp but didn’t practice all of last week. I wonder if he maybe ends up on IR and gets another shot next year when there’s possibly less competition at the position.

In (3): Hunter Henry, Eli Raridon, Tanner Arkin

Out (3): C.J. Dippre, Jack Westover, Mitch Van Vooren

IR (1): Julian Hill

Just like the running back position, the top two spots here are locks, but it’s the third one that is up for grabs. Undrafted rookie Tanner Arkin has been the clear TE3 all camp, and has gotten reps at fullback as well; based on his summer so far, he is the clear frontrunner for the final roster spot at the position.

C.J. Dippre has just started practicing after getting activated off of PUP, and I thought that he would have a chance to be the third tight end this year. Unfortunately, he has a huge cast on his hand, which makes him unable to catch the ball and in turn unlikely to make the roster from the current point of view. Jack Westover made the team last year, but, if camp is any indication, that won’t be the case this year.

In (4): Will Campbell, Morgan Moses, Caleb Lomu, Marcus Bryant

Out (3):James Hudson III, Dametrious Crownover, Lorenz Metz (exempt)

The top three tackles are roster locks. The depth is the question here, and I have them keeping Marcus Bryant as OT44. With Will Campbell out last week, Bryant filled in for him at left tackle, and the Patriots seem to like what they have in the second-year player.

Hudson has been working at guard to try to make the roster, but he hasn’t looked great. Crownover and Metz seem to have a long way to go to crack an NFL roster, with the latter a candidate to be brought back via the practice squad through this international exemption.

In (5): Alijah Vera-Tucker, Jared Wilson, Mike Onwenu, Ben Brown, Andrew Rupcich

Out (4): Mehki Butler, Caedan Wallace, Jacob Rizy, JonDarius Morgan

The depth on the interior hasn’t looked great, which is why the Patriots recently brought in veteran Greg Van Roten for a workout. There’s a chance that he gets signed, and then ends up making the roster as the last guy on this list. Right now, I have Andrew Rupcich because he’s a veteran who Vrabel has experience with.

I am somewhat concerned about this position, though, especially considering Vera-Tucker’s injury history, and Ben Brown struggling in camp so far. Hopefully, the starters stay healthy here, because, if the Patriots are forced to rely on their depth — especially for an extended period — they could be in trouble.

In (5): Milton Williams, Christian Barmore, Cory Durden, Joshua Farmer, Isaiah Iton

Out (4): Leonard Taylor III, Eric Gregory, Jeremiah Pharms Jr, Casey Rogers

This is such a deep position group for the Patriots, and I had a hard time figuring out who to cut. Ultimately, I chose to keep Isaiah Iton as the last guy because I really liked what I saw from him last year and what I have seen from him in camp so far this summer.

Leonard Taylor and Casey Rogers seem to have the best chance to take the final spot, but I like the upside of Iton a little bit more, which is why he remains on the team. I also have loved what I’ve seen from Joshua Farmer in camp, and think that the top three — Milton Williams, Christian Barmore, Cory Durden — are going to be incredibly strong. 

In (6): Dre’Mont Jones, Harold Landry III, Gabe Jacas, Elijah Ponder, Bradyn Swinson, Xavier Holmes

Out (2): Quintayvious Hutchins, Jesse Luketa

Similar to wide receiver, this also is a group that has a lot of question marks. When will Harold Landry return? Will Gabe Jacas be able to contribute right away? Can Elijah Ponder do what he did at the end of last season for a whole year?

While there is a lot of uncertainty, there also is a lot of potential. I love what I’ve seen from Xavier Holmes in camp, and think that he deserves a spot on this projection. He was a camp invite, not even a true UDFA, but he has shown some real flash and has been wreaking havoc on the Patriots backup offensive line. Also, if Bradyn Swinson can live up to his potential as well, the team could end up with a deep group of edge rushers.

Of course, there is also a chance that Landry is never quite the same and the young guys can’t live up to their potential, and this group ultimately turns out to be a weakness. Let’s look on the bright side here, though, and be a little more optimistic than that.

In (4): Robert Spillane, Christian Elliss, Chad Muma, Khalil Jacobs

Out (4): K.J. Britt, Namdi Obiazor, Amari Gainer, Riley Wilson

Robert Spillane and Christian Elliss are obviously locks; K.J. Britt is a mild surprise cut here. He was brought in as a free agent because of his special teams experience and athleticism. However, he seems to have been passed on the depth chart by both Chad Muma, who has been working as the third off-ball linebacker for a while now, as well as Khalil Jacobs.

Jacobs is another UDFA who has flashed, and has been one of the players that the media has been buzzing about for weeks.

In (7): Christian Gonzalez, Marcus Jones, Carlton Davis III, Charles Woods, Karon Prunty, Kobee Minor, Channing Canada

Out (4): Kindle Vildor, Marcellas Dial Jr, Kenneth Harris, Brandon Crossley

Cornerback is a position where I was unsure who to keep for the depth spots. There are strong arguments for both Kindle Vildor and even Brandon Crossley making the roster instead of Kobee Minor and Channing Canada, but I settled where I did because I have seen more out of the latter two in camp.

I have also been very impressed with Karon Prunty so far. With Charles Woods proving to be a competent player last year as well, plus the proven ability of the top three on the depth chart, there is a chance that this is the strongest position on the field this year for the Patriots.

In (4): Kevin Byard, Craig Woodson, Dell Pettus, Brenden Schooler

Out (4):Mike Brown, John Saunders Jr, Peter Manuma, Eric Butler

I don’t love what I have seen from the depth at the safety position in camp so far. Dell Pettus has been consistently solid, so he’s the third guy here, but I haven’t seen much else from anyone to earn them a spot on the roster over, for example a seventh cornerback or sixth edge. So, I’m cutting them all.

Obviously, we haven’t seen Eric Butler yet, but I’d be surprised if he shows enough to crack this list when he gets here. The starters are fantastic, and the Patriots are going to expect a lot out of them, but if either Kevin Byard or Craig Woodson goes down, they might be in serious trouble.

Brenden Schooler hasn’t yet practiced and remains on NFI, but, until told otherwise, I assume he’ll be ready to start the season and continue serving as the leader on special teams.

In (3): Andy Borregales, Bryce Baringer, Julian Ashby

Out: N/A

There’s no competition here for any of these three, so they are locks for the roster. Andy Borregales has looked fantastic in camp, and was solid as a rookie last year, and Bryce Baringer has looked good too. Julian Ashby had one obvious bad snap, but otherwise also performed at a high level. The Patriots are comfortable with what they have here, and so am I.

So that’s it! Let me know what you think in the comments. I did not expect the Patriots to cut multiple draft picks and keep three UDFAs when camp started, but, based on what I have seen, I think they’ve earned the chance. The starters should have fans very excited about the season, too, but the real question is going to be how much the depth is tested due to injury this year. If they can stay reasonably healthy, the ceiling for this team is very high.

Please head down to the comment section to share your own projections, thoughts, and more.