Packers Key to Victory: Chuck it deep

Week 1 is weird for a variety of reasons. Teams change so much throughout the offseason – additions, subtractions, hiring, firings, turn turn turn – so looking at numbers/film from the previous season won’t always shed light on the current season.

That being said, I was combing through some stats over at NFL Pro and found a handful of stats that could point to something to keep an eye on this week.

The first stat is simple: last year, the Green Bay Packers were the 5th best team at deep passing (throws 20+ yards down the field. The Vikings were the 28th best defense at defending against the deep pass. That’s a good starting point. The Packers are better at passing deep than the Vikings are at defending it. The Vikings were much better at defending Short (#6) and Intermediate (#3) passing.

Here’s the second stat: Jordan Love averaged 10.2 air yards per attempt with Christian Watson on the field last season, compared to 7.8 air yards per attempt when Watson was off the field. On the season, Love threw 5 TDs on throws 20+ yards down the field: 3 of those were to Watson & 1 of them was on a play with Watson on the field. That means Love threw only 1 deep TD all year without Watson on the field.

The third stat basically just expands on the second one: Christian Watson averaged 17.6 air yards per target from Week 8 on last season, the second most amount among qualifying receivers during that span. Watson had 9 receptions on deep passes, most in the league during that stretch.

Last but not least, there’s the matter of blitzing. We know how Brian Flores loves his blitzes. Last season, Jordan Love had an EPA per Play of +0.30 against the blitz, tied for best in the league with Matt Stafford (for reference, Drake Maye had the best overall EPA per Play last season at +0.25). Love’s time to throw when blitzed was 2.78, which means he wasn’t just looking for the quick option. Love’s Deep Throw % when blitzed of 13.2% was 5th in the league. His ability to drift away from pressure and throw off his back foot certainly helps with this, but he doesn’t really panic against a blitz.

Football can be complicated, but it can also be simple. If a blitz is on the way, chuck it deep to Watson.

Albums listened to: Julien Baker – Turn Out the Lights; Brian Fallon – Not Bad for New Jersey