Packers-Buccaneers Preview: Green Bay travels to Tampa Bay

The Green Bay Packers (1-2) visit a 0-3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers team on Sunday at 1 p.m. ET as a 4-point favorite, and the matchup is defined by one injury: Baker Mayfield is out with a dislocated right thumb, so undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels makes his first NFL start.

Through three weeks, the Bucs have the league’s worst offense by EPA/play (-0.23) and a top-six defense (-0.14), per SumerSports.

That split is the whole preview. Tampa’s defense is good enough to keep a broken Packers offense from finding easy answers, especially on the ground. Tampa’s offense, now without its starting quarterback behind a line that has already allowed 13 sacks, is the softest unit Jonathan Gannon’s defense will see this season.

The Packers win this game by refusing to hand Tampa short fields, because the Bucs have been undone by turnovers and special teams far more than by their defense.

ST coordinator Thomas McGaughey (fired)

Offensive consultant Tom Moore (retired)

• OC Zac Robinson (ex-Falcons)

• Passing game coordinator T.J. Yates

• Offensive assistant Ken Zampese

• ST coordinator Danny Smith (ex-Steelers)

• LB Alex Anzalone (2 years, $17M)

• DL A’Shawn Robinson

• DL Rakeem Nuñez-Roches

• Edge Al-Quadin Muhammad

• RB Kenneth Gainwell (2 years, $14M)

• Edge Rueben Bain Jr. (draft)

• LB Josiah Trotter (draft, 2nd round)

• WR Ted Hurst III (draft)

• CB Keionte Scott (draft)

• QB Jalon Daniels (undrafted)

• Note: Bowles still calls the defense; no DC hired

Passing game coordinator T.J. Yates

ST coordinator Danny Smith (ex-Steelers)

RB Kenneth Gainwell (2 years, $14M)

LB Josiah Trotter (draft, 2nd round)

Note: Bowles still calls the defense; no DC hired

• Offense EPA/play: -0.23 (32nd)

• Offense EPA/dropback: -0.33 (31st)

• Offense EPA/rush: -0.06 (~14th)

• Offense success rate: 37.6% (30th)

• Offense rush success rate: 48.9% (7th, after Week 2)

• Defense EPA/play allowed: -0.14 (6th)

• Defense EPA/dropback allowed: -0.08 (12th)

• Defense EPA/rush allowed: -0.22 (4th)

• Defense success rate allowed: 37.6% (5th)

• Defense rush success rate allowed: 2nd-lowest in NFL

Offense rush success rate: 48.9% (7th, after Week 2)

Defense EPA/play allowed: -0.14 (6th)

Defense EPA/dropback allowed: -0.08 (12th)

Defense EPA/rush allowed: -0.22 (4th)

Defense success rate allowed: 37.6% (5th)

Defense rush success rate allowed: 2nd-lowest in NFL

• Offense dropback EPA/play: 0.06 (18th)

• Offense rush EPA/play: -0.09 (24th)

• Offense EPA/play, Week 7 on: -0.089 (26th)

• Defense EPA/dropback allowed, Week 10 on: 0.280 (27th)

• Not publicly available: pass success rate (either side) and 2025 success-rate splits

Offense dropback EPA/play: 0.06 (18th)

Offense rush EPA/play: -0.09 (24th)

Offense EPA/play, Week 7 on: -0.089 (26th)

Defense EPA/dropback allowed, Week 10 on: 0.280 (27th)

Not publicly available: pass success rate (either side) and 2025 success-rate splits

Tampa Bay started 6-2 and finished 8-9, missing the playoffs for the first time since 2019 and losing the NFC South to Carolina on a tiebreaker on the final day. The collapse began right after the Week 9 bye: losses to New England, Buffalo and the Rams (by a combined 106-62) started a stretch where the team went 2-7 the rest of the way.

The offense regressed under first-year coordinator Josh Grizzard. Liam Coen’s 2024 unit ranked top-five in nearly everything. In 2025 the Bucs averaged 22.4 points (18th), 320.4 yards (21st) and 5.2 yards per play, a full yard below 2024. Dropback EPA was 0.06 per play (18th) and rush EPA was -0.09 (24th), per a Yahoo Sports team preview. From Week 7 on, the offense ranked 26th in EPA/play (-0.089).

The run game is the mechanism worth knowing. Tampa stayed with a gap-heavy scheme, and Bucky Irving went from a 1,122-yard rookie season to 3.4 yards per carry on 173 attempts. SumerSports has his 2025 success rate at 34.7% (95th among backs) with a 12.1% tackle-for-loss rate. Injuries made it worse: third-string guards played stretches and Tristan Wirfs missed games.

The defense held up against the run and collapsed against the pass. Opponents ran for 99.1 yards per game (5th), but the pass defense ranked 27th and the pass rush produced its lowest sack total in Bowles’ seven seasons in Tampa, per the team. From Week 10 on, the Bucs allowed 0.280 EPA per dropback, 27th in the league. That pattern (stout run front, leaky coverage, thin pass rush) is exactly what the offseason tried to fix.

All three losses were one-score games, and in each the Bucs gave away points outside of normal defensive play: fumbles in Cincinnati, red-zone failures against Cleveland, a punt-return touchdown and penalties against Minnesota. Tampa has allowed a league-high 30 points off turnovers.

Week 1 at Cincinnati. The offense actually moved the ball: Mayfield was 23-of-28 for 216 yards and the Bucs never punted. Three straight first-half fumbles produced 21 Bengals points, one returned for a score, and another fumble killed the comeback. Josiah Trotter became the first player in NFL history with a pick-six and a sack in his debut, but his was the only sack on Joe Burrow.

Week 2 vs. Cleveland. Tampa scored on five possessions but only once in the end zone, with Chase McLaughlin hitting from 59, 45, 31 and 31. The run defense dominated (Quinshon Judkins: 12 carries, 21 yards), yet Deshaun Watson completed 80% of his throws, including a 55-yard TD to Denzel Boston and the go-ahead score late. A 132-minute lightning delay split the game.

Week 3 vs. Minnesota. The defense played its best game: Kyler Murray went 15-of-29 for 168 yards, and the Bucs had four sacks plus an A’Shawn Robinson interception. The offense posted a 28% success rate and -0.24 EPA/play per Sharp’s advanced box score, with eight penalties for 81 yards. Mayfield finished 17-of-34 for 217 yards, a TD and an INT, then left with the thumb injury; Daniels went 0-for-3 with an interception in relief. Receiver Jalen McMillan also left with a knee injury.

The read for Green Bay: Tampa’s defense is not the reason it is 0-3. Its yardage allowed ranks 6th (282.7 per game), but its scoring allowed ranks 23rd (26.3), and the gap is almost entirely turnovers and special teams.

Punish Bowles’ blitz with timing, not the run game. Tampa blitzes 43.4% of the time (3rd) but gets home on only 32.6% of those blitzes (28th), and its overall pressure rate is fourth-lowest, per Sharp and FantasyPros. That is a profile Green Bay can attack even with a battered line. The catch is Jordan Love’s own pressure numbers: pressured on 44.7% of dropbacks, 18-of-50 with no TDs and two INTs under pressure, and a 2.45-second average time to throw (third-longest). Quick game and hot answers against a defense playing single-high 71.7% of the time (2nd) is the mechanism, not a hope that the line holds.

Do not script a run-game rebound. Green Bay’s rush EPA (-0.41) is the league’s worst and the backfield produced 17 yards in Week 3. Tampa allows -0.22 EPA per rush (4th) and the second-lowest rushing success rate. Screens and quick perimeter throws are the run game this week.

Gannon’s problem is containment, not coverage. Daniels averaged 4.8 yards per attempt under pressure in 2025 with a 12.9% red-zone interception rate, but he scrambled on 11.3% of preseason dropbacks and ran a 4.46. Rushing lanes and a spy or rush-and-retrace front matter more than exotic coverage. Tampa’s line has already allowed 13 sacks with a quarterback who extends plays.

Make Tampa drive the length of the field. The Bucs’ scoring has come from short fields and McLaughlin’s leg (league-leading 14 makes of 50+ since the start of 2025). Green Bay’s -37 second-half point differential and league-high 32 penalties are the self-inflicted version of Tampa’s problem; whichever team cleans that up likely wins.

Respect the weapons. Egbuka, Godwin, Otton, Irving and Hurst give Daniels real targets. With McMillan’s knee and Evans gone, the Bucs’ receiver depth is thinner than the names suggest.