NFL Week 8 best bets cover 11 Sunday afternoon games, and the Jaguars headline the card as 10-point home favorites against a Colts team that traded DeForest Buckner and Quenton Nelson last week.
Each spread and total pick carries a unit rating from 0 to 3 units. Jacksonville -10, the Rams -6 and Kansas City -1.5 get 2.5 units apiece. Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson returns in Buffalo, while the Patriots ruled out receiver A.J. Brown before their trip to Miami.
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Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills
Picks: Bills 31-27, Bills -3 (1u), Over 54.5 (1.5u)
Jackson returns from a high ankle sprain after three full practices, and coach Jesse Minter said, “I think he’ll look like Lamar Jackson.” Jackson still feels pain when he plants his foot, and Baltimore (4-3) dropped two straight division games without him.
Buffalo (5-1) comes off its bye averaging a league-high 32.8 points per game. Quarterback Josh Allen has eight rushing touchdowns, and running back James Cook averages 5.4 yards per carry. Still, receiver DJ Moore, tight end Dalton Kincaid and right tackle Spencer Brown are all questionable, which keeps the spread play small. Bills coach Joe Brady expects “the best version of Lamar Jackson,” and Buffalo’s struggles against the pass give Baltimore enough to help push this past 54.5.
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Tennessee Titans vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Picks: Bengals 30-13, Bengals -12.5 (2u), Under 46.5 (1u)
Tennessee (1-6) traded defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons to Chicago and now holds two first-round picks in next year’s draft. That leaves a thin defense facing Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow, who went 16 of 18 for 249 yards and four touchdowns in the second half of last week’s 35-13 win at Baltimore.
Cincinnati (4-2) also converts a league-best 51.9% of third downs, which keeps Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins on the field. Titans quarterback Cam Ward has one 200-yard passing game this season, and he’s without receiver Carnell Tate and running back Tyjae Spears, with receiver Calvin Ridley questionable. The Bengals covering is the stronger play, since the under depends on Tennessee’s offense staying stuck.
Arizona Cardinals vs. Dallas Cowboys
Picks: Cowboys 31-27, Cardinals +7 (1.5u), Over 54.5 (1.5u)
Dallas (3-4) snapped a two-game skid with a 38-21 win in Philadelphia on Monday night, and quarterback Dak Prescott has 13 touchdown passes. Receiver George Pickens is questionable with shoulder and hamstring injuries but is expected to play against an Arizona defense allowing a league-high 29.7 points per game.
The Cowboys’ pass defense ranks near the bottom of the league too, which makes seven points worth taking. Cardinals running back Jeremiyah Love says he’s “back to myself” after missing two games, and quarterback Jacoby Brissett beat Dallas 27-17 at AT&T Stadium last season. Arizona has one touchdown on its last 10 red-zone trips, but coach Mike LaFleur said “The ball is moving, but we got to finish jobs.” Neither defense has slowed many offenses, which supports the over.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions
Picks: Vikings 23-20, Vikings +3 (2u), Under 46.5 (2u)
Minnesota (6-0) is the NFL’s last unbeaten team because defensive coordinator Brian Flores’ unit has allowed 74 points all season while blitzing more than any defense in the league. Lions coach Dan Campbell said, “This defense is as good as it gets,” and Detroit (4-2) will be without safety Kerby Joseph.
Vikings quarterback Kyler Murray has averaged 162.4 passing yards in five starts, so Minnesota won’t pull away. Still, the Vikings forced six turnovers in their last meeting with Detroit, and Murray said, “It’s going to be a dogfight.” Minnesota hasn’t played in a game with more than 39 combined points since Week 1, which makes the under as strong as the points.
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Las Vegas Raiders vs. New York Jets
Picks: Jets 23-20, Jets -1.5 (1u), Under 46.5 (1.5u)
Raiders running back Ashton Jeanty questioned whether some Jets defenders want to tackle, but he’s averaging 3.1 yards per carry for a Las Vegas offense that ranks 31st in rushing yards per game. The Raiders (3-4) have lost four straight after a 3-0 start.
Jets quarterback Geno Smith faces the team he started for last season, and he’s completing 70% of his passes with 10 touchdowns and two interceptions. New York (2-5) is without defensive linemen T’Vondre Sweat and Joseph Ossai, which keeps the Jets as a small play. Smith admitted, “We’ve got to finish games,” and both offenses rank among the league’s worst at turning red-zone trips into touchdowns, which favors the under.
Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Picks: Steelers 20-17, Browns +3.5 (1.5u), Under 38.5 (1u)
First place in the AFC North is on the line between two 5-2 teams, and Cleveland won the first meeting 27-24 on Andre Szmyt’s 56-yard field goal with 10 seconds left. The Browns also sacked Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers five times in that game.
Pittsburgh has won three straight, and running back Jaylen Warren averages 5.5 yards per carry, which gives the Steelers the edge at home. Still, Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson led a season-high 491-yard effort in last week’s 27-24 win over Tennessee, and Pittsburgh is without defensive backs Brandin Echols and Doneiko Slaughter. Neither offense finishes drives consistently, so the 3.5 points and the under both fit.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Picks: Buccaneers 20-17, Buccaneers -2.5 (0.5u), Under 43.5 (2u)
Tampa Bay allows 77.3 rushing yards per game, second-fewest in the NFL, and that defense faces Falcons running back Bijan Robinson, who leads the league with 907 scrimmage yards. Buccaneers coach Todd Bowles said of Robinson, “He’s tough,” and the Bucs have five sacks in each of their last two games.
Atlanta (3-4) forced four turnovers in a 29-20 win that ended San Francisco’s unbeaten start, and quarterback Michael Penix Jr. has nine touchdown passes and one interception since returning to the lineup. Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield returned in a 43-13 rout of Carolina, but receiver Emeka Egbuka is out with a foot injury. Two strong run defenses make the under a better play than Tampa Bay’s side.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Picks: Jaguars 30-16, Jaguars -10 (2.5u), Under 46.5 (0.5u)
Indianapolis (2-5) fired general manager Chris Ballard, traded Buckner and Nelson and is now open to trading Jonathan Taylor. Taylor is expected to play and is tied for the league lead with eight rushing touchdowns, but Jacksonville allows a league-low 72.2 rushing yards per game and hasn’t allowed a 100-yard rusher since Taylor in January 2025.
That leaves the game on Colts quarterback Daniel Jones against a Jaguars team coming off its bye. Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence has 14 touchdown passes and four interceptions, and coach Liam Coen said “Trevor gives me so much confidence on a weekly basis as a play-caller.” Receiver Jakobi Meyers is questionable after missing Friday’s practice, but the Colts’ 12 giveaways compared with Jacksonville’s four point to a comfortable Jaguars win.
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Los Angeles Chargers vs. Los Angeles Rams
Picks: Rams 27-13, Rams -6 (2.5u), Under 45.5 (2u)
The Chargers (0-6) are the NFL’s last winless team, and coach Jim Harbaugh said during the bye that “0-6 does not give the privilege to rule out anything.” Quarterback Justin Herbert has a league-worst eight interceptions and has been sacked 21 times.
The Rams (3-4) beat the Raiders 35-21 last week, and they stay on schedule far more often, with a 49.6% offensive success rate compared with 36.9% for the Chargers. Chargers safety Derwin James and cornerback Deane Leonard are both out, which helps quarterback Matthew Stafford. The Chargers’ offense gets the strongest support, and the Rams have enough to win by a touchdown.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos
Picks: Chiefs 24-16, Chiefs -1.5 (2.5u), Under 40.5 (0.5u)
Kansas City beat Denver 31-10 in Week 1, and the Chiefs’ running game gives them the same edge in the rematch. Running back Kenneth Walker III was held to 36 yards in last week’s 20-3 loss at Seattle, but the Chiefs (5-1) still rank among the league’s best rushing teams, while Denver ranks 28th in EPA against the run.
The Broncos (5-2) ruled out running back RJ Harvey with a knee injury, and rookie Jonah Coleman says he’s “ready for any opportunity.” Receiver Jaylen Waddle and left tackle Garett Bolles are questionable, though cornerback Pat Surtain II returns. Denver ranks 31st on third down, so the spread is the clear play, while a projected 40 points leaves the under as a small one.
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New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins
Picks: Patriots 27-17, Patriots -7 (1.5u), Over 43.5 (0.5u)
New England ruled out Brown with knee and ankle injuries, along with running back TreVeyon Henderson. Still, quarterback Drake Maye gets the NFL’s worst pass defense, and Miami (1-5) has a league-low six sacks and ranks last in completion percentage allowed to tight ends, which sets up tight end Hunter Henry.
The Patriots (4-3) have lost seven of their last nine games in Miami, and their 14 giveaways make a touchdown spread uncomfortable. Dolphins quarterback Malik Willis averages 6.4 yards per carry against a New England defense that missed 25 tackles over the last two games. The Patriots should pull away, and Willis’ running keeps Miami scoring enough for the over.
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