NFL Week 1 Survivor/Eliminator Picks

The return of the NFL season means the return of everyone’s favorite game that you might only play for one day: NFL Eliminator. Or NFL Survivor, because we are terrible at picking a single name for something. Starting as early as Thursday night, we’ll be picking a winner each week of the NFL season … or at least as long as we’re right. There will be some wild game in Week 1 that knocks out a significant percentage of players. Let’s try to avoid that pitfall, cool? Each week in this space, I’ll be offering up my favorite NFL Eliminator (or, if you prefer, NFL Survivor) picks for the week. I’ll probably be wrong sometimes! But I’ll try, and really, isn’t that more important than being right? … I’m being told it is not. But OK! Here we go!

NFL Survivor Picks for Week 1

Every week, we have the same process. We eliminate teams in groups until we narrow it down to our real considerations. Start with all 32, whittle it down. And remember — this game is “once you use a team, they’re off the board,” so it’s not always just a matter of taking the team you think will win. There has to be some strategy.

Opponent Is Too Good

Maybe these are good teams, maybe not, but it’s too hard to trust them given who they are facing. This is a 10-team list every week (fewer when there are byes); we are eliminating anyone facing a top-10 team in our FTN NFL Power Rankings. Arizona Cardinals (@ LA Chargers) Buffalo Bills (@ Houston) Denver Broncos (@ Kansas City) Houston (vs. Buffalo) Indianapolis (vs. Baltimore) Kansas City (vs. Denver) New England (@ Seattle) San Francisco (vs. LA Rams in Australia) Seattle (vs. New England) Washington (@ Philadelphia) Some of these teams will win — in the case of Houston/Buffalo, Kansas City/Denver and Seattle/New England, someone will win — but, especially in Week 1, you can’t confidently say so, considering who they’re facing. That’s 12 gone, 20 to go.

They’re Too Bad

You can face the worst team in all of football, but if you’re the second-worst team, well, I’m still not going to be too excited about selecting you. We’ll return to the power rankings here and cross off any team in the bottom 12. Atlanta Falcons (@ Pittsburgh) Carolina Panthers (vs. Chicago) Cleveland Browns (@ Jacksonville) Las Vegas Raiders (vs. Miami) Miami Dolphins (@ Las Vegas) New Orleans Saints (@ Detroit) New York Giants (vs. Dallas) New York Jets (@ Tennessee) Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Atlanta) Tennessee Titans (vs. NY Jets) Ten more eliminations leaves us with 12 remaining.

Island/Divisional Games

Week 1 is already weird enough. Add in an island slot, or a rivalry game, and I just don’t want any part of it. If there were a divisional game between, say, the Rams and Cardinals, or the Texans and Titans, I might reconsider this, but as it is these games have too many variables. Dallas Cowboys (@ NY Giants) Green Bay Packers (@ Minnesota) Los Angeles Rams (vs. San Francisco in Australia) Minnesota Vikings (vs. Green Bay) Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Washington) That takes five more out and leaves us with seven teams — our seven contenders.

The Contenders

Once we’re down to this small a number of teams, we’re done cutting them in swaths. We look at the pros and cons for each team and then figure it out. I’m also diving into our NFL Betting Model to see what the numbers think of the game.

Baltimore Ravens (@ Indianapolis)

Model Projection: Colts 24.86-23.51, Ravens 46.5% win rate

Pros: The Ravens get a quarterback fresh off an Achilles tear, while Lamar Jackson has had nine months to heal up. Cons: Baltimore is starting a 2023 seventh-rounder with zero career starts at center? That’s scary.

Chicago Bears (@ Carolina)

Model Projection: Bears 25.42-22.59, Bears 57.3% win rate Pros: The Panthers were maybe the worst playoff team last year. Cons: The Bears were probably the third-worst playoff team last year. And that defense could be a mess.

Cincinnati Bengals (vs. Tampa Bay)

Model Projection: Bengals 25.98-25.20, Bengals 51.9% win rate Pros: The Bengals are still an offensive juggernaut and should be better on the line and on defense. That’s the right direction. Cons: The Buccaneers collapsed last year with everyone hurt. Most of them are healthier now.

Detroit Lions (vs. New Orleans)

Model Projection: Lions 26.83-21.51, Lions 63.5% win rate Pros: You always like Jared Goff at home, and the Saints are already coming in hurt, with Jordyn Tyson and Alvin Kamara out. Cons: If Tyler Shough’s development from last year continues, the Saints can start looking interesting.

Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Cleveland)

Model Projection: Jaguars 22.51-17.18, Jaguars 66.3% win rate Pros: It’s a home game facing Deshaun Watson. Cons: Even down Myles Garrett (and Jim Schwartz), the Browns still have a good defense. Can the Jags maintain last year’s hot stretch?

Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Arizona)

Model Projection: Chargers 25.34-20.54, Chargers 62.8% win rate Pros: A team expected to fight for the division this year against a team expected to fight for the first overall pick. Cons: Whenever people start to believe in the Chargers, that’s when they get you.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@ Cincinnati)

Model Projection: Bengals 25.98-25.20, Buccaneers 48.1% win rate Pros: Baker Mayfield, healthy, behind what is now a good offensive line, could return to last year’s brief MVP conversation. Cons: The Bucs’ defense isn’t as good as it was a few years ago, and Joe Burrow/Ja’Marr Chase could feast.

The Pick

Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Arizona)

I’m ready to get hurt again, Chargers. But after the first two weeks, the Chargers have an absolute murderer’s row of a schedule until the double-digit weeks. There’s no sense in saving them, so let’s get them on the board here where it makes the most sense.

Honorable Mention

Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Cleveland) Detroit Lions (vs. New Orleans)