In third grade, we asked ourselves, “When are we ever going to use fractions in real life!?”
Through two weeks of NFL Survivor contests, first we saw almost one-third of entrants get knocked out (thanks to the Cardinals’ win over the Chargers), and then almost half of the remaining entrants got wiped out thanks to the Buccaneers, Ravens and, again, the Chargers.
Some elementary math later, and one-half of two-thirds are remaining. Which means two-thirds of the initial entrants in a standard Survivor pool sitting on the sideline. Got it?
Here is my Week 3 NFL Survivor pool analysis.
Speaking of arithmetic, the number of remaining participants in your pool also changes the calculus when it comes to strategy. After all, the fewer the entrants, the less conceptual risk is necessary each week.
Each week (until we’ve exhausted all reasonable paths of survival), we look at the Survivor Contest landscape, and the best options available, while understanding that it matters who you’ve already taken, and what you might be giving up by burning a team that week.
Week 3 moneylines
How likely is a team to win and you’ll advance? The betting market provides the answer to that each week with the moneyline, which we can convert to an implied win probability.
Matt RussellMarket power ratings
It’s not as simple as picking the team most likely to win, because once you use that team, you can’t use it again. What is simple is that if you’re going to make it through the 18-week season, then you need to use 18 teams. That means, at some point, you’ll be trusting the 18th-best team in the NFL — an unnerving thought.
Here’s a list of the current top 18 teams (with help from the betting market), and an estimation of their value to the point spread:
Bills: 18.9
Ravens: 18.4
Rams: 18.1
49ers: 17.6
Chiefs: 16.7
Texans: 16.7
Eagles: 16.7
Bears: 16.2 (with Caleb Williams)
Bengals: 15.9
Chargers: 15.7
Seahawks: 15.7 (with Drew Lock)
Broncos: 15.7
Lions: 15.4
Jaguars: 15.4
Cowboys: 15.4
Patriots: 15.1
Vikings: 14.7
Packers: 14.3
Picking the most likely team to win each week, or the highest available team on this list above, means that you’re giving up the opportunity to use it later, and while every week is technically created equal, trusting a team in September is nerve-wracking, but doing so at some point in December is real tension.
Week 3’s top choices
As we look at the best options for Week 3 and onward, we’ll be factoring in the decision tree that will sprout from that pick. The implied probability derived from the moneyline should answer any questions about why the favorite should win, but the nuance is found in what you’re giving up by using it now and not later (with a projected point spread projection for those matchups).
49ers (79.4%) over Cardinals
The 49ers are a great pick this week … if you somehow didn’t use them in Week 2 and lived to tell about it, that is.
The Cardinals — a team lined at 3.5 wins before the season — looked a lot more “fadeable” in Week 2 against the Seahawks, but the problem with this option is that so many entrants (~78%) just used San Francisco last week.
Jacoby Brissett and the offensive line in front of him succumbed to the pressure of the Seahawks front last week, something the Chargers couldn’t translate into stops a week earlier. We’ll see if the 49ers can get to Brissett.
Estimated Availability: 21.7%
What you’re giving up (projected point spread):
Week 6 vs. Commanders (SF -4.5)
Week 9 vs. Raiders (SF -8.5)
Week 18 at Cardinals (SF -5)
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The longer you can withstand not using the 49ers, the more of an advantage you’ll have over your competitors.
Looking ahead to Week 6, the Colts host the Titans, while the Rams host the Cardinals. So, having the 49ers still available that Monday night might not give you that much of an edge.
In Week 8, the Cowboys host the Cardinals (who beat Dallas soundly last season), and the Bengals host the Titans, so if you can wait until then, you could use the 49ers over the Raiders. That would allow you to use Cincinnati some other time.
Chiefs (85.8%) over Dolphins
The Chiefs have the highest win probability this week, but this is a dicey combination of:
The Chiefs’ first road game
The Dolphins’ first home game
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Kansas City will be sweating it out on the sunny sideline in Miami, but offenses have moved the ball with an incredible level of ease against the Dolphins defense.
Estimated Availability: 97%
What you’re giving up (projected point spread):
Week 4 at Raiders (KC -5.5)
Week 9 vs. Jets (KC -8.5)
Week 11 vs. Cardinals (KC -8.5)
Week 18 vs. Raiders (KC -8.5)
Hypothetically, you might not have wanted to use the 49ers last week, because you wanted to use them this week and save the Chiefs for the numerous other games above. Of course, if you passed on the San Francisco free space, you’re likely already out, and not even reading this.
How’s the temptation for keeping the Chiefs in the holster for later?
Bills (75.9%) over Chargers
Your level of interest in the Chiefs might depend on how bad you think the Chargers are.
Logically, fading a team (L.A.) who so many used as their Survivor pick in Week 1 and 2, even after two losses, is counterintuitive. Since, as bettors, we’re programmed to remember that two games isn’t enough of a sample size to completely flip perception.
Estimated Availability: 99.5%
What you’re giving up (projected point spread):
Week 11 vs. Dolphins (BUF -15)
Week 17 at Dolphins (BUF -11.5)
Week 18 vs. Jets (BUF -11)
You don’t see a projected spread of over two touchdowns very often in the NFL, but, at the moment (due to Rams’ injuries), the Bills are the highest-rated team in the league, and the Dolphins are the lowest. That’s tempting for Week 11, and if there’s not another option (Cowboys vs. Titans, Chiefs vs. Cardinals, Broncos vs. Raiders) that tickles your fancy, saving Buffalo for a Survivor close-out would be a big move.
Saints (61.9%) over Raiders
If the Chargers really are bad enough to be faded in Survivor this week, that devalues the Raiders’ wins over L.A. and Miami. Meanwhile, the Saints were a two-point conversion away from winning in Detroit, and then beat the Ravens in Baltimore. Those two impressive road efforts suggest the Saints might be undervalued in their win probability as they play their first home game of the season, making them the dark-horse option this week.
Estimated Availability: 100%
What you’re giving up (projected point spread):
Week 4 vs. Falcons (NO -2.5)
Week 8 vs. Browns (NO -4.5)
Week 16 vs. Cardinals (NO -3)
Not ready to think outside the box this week with the Saints? Maybe next week’s Monday-nighter commemorating the Saints’ win over the Falcons in their return from Hurricane Katrina relief efforts might be more your speed.
The thing about contemplating a darkhorse, is that there is little temptation to save them for down the road. But, playing wait-and-see on whether or not New Orleans can be trusted does provide options at the midpoint and late in the season. It all depends on how you want to create your unique path to the end.
You can find more valuable betting analysis from Yahoo Sports betting contributor Matt Russell at THE WINDOW.
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