NFL survivor contest picks, predictions, advice, strategy: My favorite Week 2 selections

For weeks leading up to Week 1, the Pittsburgh Steelers looked like they might be the slick play in Survivor contests, as a 3.5-point favorite over the Falcons. Then, on Thursday of last week, Tua Tagovailoa went down with an oblique injury in practice, and it was like someone jumped on a bullhorn and said “Hey! Look over here!” Both the point spread and Pittsburgh’s usage in Survivor contests went up.  

We’ll never know what would have happened if Tagovailoa had played on Sunday, but the Steelers definitely took advantage of a start by Cooper Rush, using a defensive touchdown to stretch an otherwise precarious lead.

The Jaguars didn’t need any high-leverage plays as they were the rocking-chair winner of the week, while the Chargers wiped out a whopping 32.5% of entrants on Yahoo Survival Football.

Each week (until we’ve exhausted all reasonable paths of survival), we’ll look at the Survivor Contest landscape, and the best options available, while understanding that it matters who you’ve already taken, and what you might be giving up by burning a team that week.

Week 2 moneylines

How likely is a team to win and you’ll advance? The betting market provides the answer to that each week with the moneyline, which we can convert to an implied win probability.

Matt Russell

Market power ratings

It’s not as simple as picking the team most likely to win, because once you use that team, you can’t use them again. What is simple is that if you’re going to make it through the 18-week season, then you need to use 18 teams. That means, at some point, you’ll be trusting the 18th-best team in the NFL — an unnerving thought. 

Here’s a list of the current top 18 teams (with help from the betting market), and an estimation of their value to the point spread: 

• Rams: 18.9

• Bills: 18.6

• Ravens: 18.6

• 49ers: 17.6

• Chiefs: 17.0

• Bears: 16.7

• Texans: 16.5

• Eagles: 16.2

• Patriots: 16.2

• Lions: 15.9

• Broncos: 15.7

• Bengals: 15.4

• Chargers: 15.1

• Cowboys: 14.9

• Jaguars: 14.9

• Seahawks: 14.6

• Packers: 14.0

• Buccaneers: 13.8

Picking the most likely team to win each week, or the highest available team on this list above, means that you’re giving up the opportunity to use them again later, and while every week is technically created equal, trusting a team in September is nerve-wracking, but doing so at some point in December is real tension. 

Week 2’s top choices

As we look at the best options for Week 1 and onward, we’ll be factoring in the decision tree that will sprout from that pick. The implied probability derived from the moneyline should answer any questions about why the favorite should win, but the nuance is found in what you’re giving up by using them now and not later (with a projected point spread projection for those matchups). 

49ers (87.6%) over Dolphins 

The Dolphins couldn’t give the Raiders much of a contest in Week 1, so why would you expect Miami to shock the 49ers? 

It depends on what you believe the after-effects might be of the 49ers’ trip to Australia. While the Rams looked to be the jet-lagged team on the field in Week 1, spending more time Down Under might create lingering issues for San Francisco. 

The betting market downgraded the Fins to the worst team in the league already, while also moving the relatively-healthy Niners up among the highest power-rated teams. 

Estimated availability: 100%

What you’re giving up (projected point spread):

• Week 3 vs Cardinals (SF -8.5)

• Week 9 vs. Raiders (SF -9.5)

There won’t be many two-touchdown favorites all season. At least, not until quarterback injuries start to submarine some teams’ seasons, so, this should be the biggest favorite the Niners will be all season. Plus, while San Francisco might be 10-point favorites against the Cardinals next week, we’ve already seen Arizona do some damage in Survivor contests. 

Saving the Niners for next week, only to see the Cardinals potentially beat the Seahawks this week would up the anxiety in fading Arizona. That said, a peak at lookahead lines suggests there might be just three games with a spread over a touchdown in Week 3.

If you’re saving the 49ers for Week 9, you’re hoping their key players are still healthy, and you might also hope the Raiders have turned to rookie Fernando Mendoza by then.

Buccaneers (78.6%) over Browns 

Call me crazy, but I like to take a (good) team off a loss in Survivor contests. You know you’ll get the best effort out of them. 

Tampa Bay didn’t punt in Week 1. They also didn’t come all that close to beating the Bengals, as too many of their possessions ended on fumbles, and Joe Burrow made the Bucs pay. 

Deshaun Watson continued to show no inclination that he and the Browns would do anything with extra possessions, if they were given them. Nor did Cleveland’s defense provide any resistance in Jacksonville, either. 

Estimated availability: 100%

What you’re giving up (projected point spread):

• Week 8 vs. ATL (TB -7.5)

The Buccaneers barely crack our top-18 teams in the NFL, and our projected spread for the only other conceptual time where they would be a viable option is using the Falcons’ current betting market power rating number — one fraught with quarterback issues. However, by Week 8, with Michael Penix Jr. potentially healthy, Atlanta’s rating will be higher, and the projected point spread considerably tighter. Essentially, it may be now or never to use the Bucs.

Eagles (74.9%) over Titans 

As noted above, there are plenty of teams with a 70% win probability, but Survivor is about both strategy and elements of game handicapping. We’re including the Eagles here, not because we want to use the lone road team in that cohort this week, but more as a representative of the others priced in a similar way. 

The Rams have the same latent jet lag issues as the 49ers, but with a more game opponent in the Giants. The Chargers just burned a near-third of Survivor entrants, and we can’t be sure the Raiders are worse than the Cardinals. The Chiefs are coming off a short week, where they were able to win thanks to simply handing the ball to Kenneth Walker and watching him break the Broncos’ missed tackles, but more may be required to beat the Colts.

The Eagles offense was hit-and-miss at home against the Commanders with almost half of their total yards coming on three plays, but that should be enough to beat the Titans, who are still dreadful.

Estimated availability: 96.9%

What you’re giving up (projected point spread):

• Week 7 vs. Panthers (PHI -6)

• Week 10 vs. Giants (PHI -5.5)

The difference between playing at home versus on the road is evident here, given the next-best times to pick the Eagles come against more capable teams, at home, with a spread around a touchdown as well. 

By comparison, the other team with a 70% win probability that we haven’t referenced — the Ravens, still have the Titans early in the season (Week 4) and the Browns at home late (Week 16). 

In the end, Week 2 provides a pair of strong options in the 49ers and Buccaneers that are both high-probability favorites and are teams you may not miss out on using later in the season.

You can find more valuable betting analysis from Yahoo Sports betting contributor Matt Russell at THE WINDOW.

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