NFL record projections 2026: AI makes win-loss picks for all 32 teams

The 2026 NFL season is rapidly approaching, and prognosticators everywhere are beginning to release their predictions for how the campaign will unfold.

The exercise isn’t an easy one given the league’s general unpredictability. The 2025 season reminded fans of that, as few would have projected the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots to be the final teams standing in Super Bowl 60.

With that in mind, USA TODAY Sports decided to give Microsoft Copilot – an artificial intelligence (AI) chatbot – a crack at predicting the results of the 2026 NFL season.

Win totals for all 32 teams, playoff predictions

Copilot was prompted to assess the upcoming NFL season with two simple queries. They were as follows.

• Can you predict the records of all 32 NFL teams for the 2026 season?
• Can you briefly explain your record projections for each team?

Copilot was able to understand the prompts but did fall into the trap of using outdated information in its initial batch of projections. It was then prompted to correct the errors – being reminded that Tua Tagovailoa is no longer on the Miami Dolphins and Mike Tomlin stepped down from his role as Pittsburgh Steelers coach, among other minor gaffes – and reassess.

The experiment wasn’t quite perfect, as the overly optimistic chatbot awarded the NFL’s 32 teams a combined record of 297-247. That means Copilot projected 25 more wins than are actually available in a given NFL season.

Despite the statistical anomalies, the experiment did shine a light on which teams Copilot believes will be the top contenders in 2026. Below is a full look at the chatbot’s record projections for the upcoming season.

1. Buffalo Bills: 13-4
2. New England Patriots: 10-7
3. New York Jets: 8-9
4. Miami Dolphins: 6-11

The Patriots made it to Super Bowl 60, but Copilot expects the Bills to work their way back to the top of the AFC East in 2026. The chatbot expressed confidence in Josh Allen, whom it referred to as “one of the NFL’s most valuable players” but also opined Drake Maye and the Patriots defense would continue to improve.

Elsewhere, Copilot believes the Jets have “too many offensive questions” to project as anything more than middle-of-the-pack. It also believes the Dolphins will be in a rebuilding year after “substantial roster turnover” and changes at quarterback (Malik Willis) and head coach (Jeff Hafley).

1. Baltimore Ravens: 12-5
2. Cincinnati Bengals: 11-6
3. Pittsburgh Steelers: 10-7
4. Cleveland Browns: 4-13

Interestingly, Copilot opined it wanted to trust the Ravens because of Lamar Jackson and “organizational stability.” Baltimore fired head coach John Harbaugh after 18 seasons, so perhaps the chatbot’s comments were regarding the team’s front office or the fact that new coach Jesse Minter previously served as the Ravens’ defensive coordinator.

The chatbot also expects Joe Burrow to keep the Bengals in contention and Mike McCarthy to continue Mike Tomlin’s streak of non-losing seasons with the Steelers. Copilot’s faith in Pittsburgh stems largely from McCarthy “inheriting a talented defense” that should keep the team competitive.

Copilot wasn’t nearly as bullish on the Browns. It predicted “a difficult season unless the quarterback situation becomes a pleasant surprise.”

1. Houston Texans: 12-5
2. Jacksonville Jaguars: 9-8
3. Indianapolis Colts: 7-10
4. Tennessee Titans: 6-11

C.J. Stroud had a rough showing in the postseason, but Copilot expressed faith in the 24-year-old quarterback and Texans coach DeMeco Ryans to get the most out of their talented roster. It also has the Jaguars, who won the AFC South in 2025, as being “talented enough to stay in the wild card mix.”

Among the teams at the bottom of the AFC South, Copilot actually sounded slightly more optimistic about the direction of the Titans. It credited Tennessee with having an “improving roster” while referring to Indianapolis as a team that was “difficult to trust week to week.”

1. Denver Broncos: 13-4
2. Los Angeles Chargers: 11-6
3. Kansas City Chiefs: 9-8
4. Las Vegas Raiders: 5-12

Copilot believes the Broncos should be the AFC West favorite after earning the AFC’s No. 1 seed in 2025 following a 14-win season. It believes Sean Payton “has clearly built a contender” and also expects that the Chargers – who “provide one of the league’s highest floors” – will be in the postseason mix.

The Chiefs were “the hardest team to forecast,” in the chatbot’s opinion. It was scared slightly by Kansas City’s 6-11 campaign in 2025 but expressed confidence that Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes can get the team turned back in the right direction quickly.

Copilot also has the Raiders making “a modest improvement” but cautioned that “expecting immediate contention is unrealistic.”

1. Philadelphia Eagles: 12-5
2. Washington Commanders: 11-6
3. Dallas Cowboys: 9-8
4. New York Giants: 6-11

Copilot named the Eagles as its favorite to challenge the reigning Super Bowl champion Seahawks atop the NFC power structure. It praised Philadelphia’s “premier roster” as giving it a great chance to contend for the team’s third Super Bowl title.

The chatbot also believes the Commanders are poised for a bounce-back season. It expressed confidence in Jayden Daniels being a “franchise quarterback” and helping guide Washington to a winning record and a playoff berth.

Meanwhile, Copilot noted the Cowboys are “talented but difficult to trust as a true contender” while calling the Giants “improving” but noted its belief New York is still fourth in the divisional power structure.

1. Detroit Lions: 13-4
2. Green Bay Packers: 12-5
3. Chicago Bears: 9-8
4. Minnesota Vikings: 7-10

Copilot expects the Lions, like the Commanders, to bounce back from a disappointing 2025 campaign. The chatbot opined that the Lions have a “loaded” roster while also expressing confidence in the culture Dan Campbell has instilled in Detroit.

The chatbot also expressed a lot of faith in the Packers. It said they are “much closer to Detroit than many people think” while lauding the team’s recent performance under Matt LaFleur.

Copilot was a bit more lukewarm on the Bears and Vikings. It called Chicago “a playoff sleeper” despite the Bears making the postseason in Ben Johnson’s first season while expressing there was “too much quarterback uncertainty” surrounding Minnesota to project a winning record.

1. Atlanta Falcons: 11-6
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 10-7
3. Carolina Panthers: 8-9
4. New Orleans Saints: 4-13

Copilot seems to be a fan of Tua Tagovailoa. Much of its confidence in Atlanta stemmed from the team’s “improved quarterback situation,” though it also noted the Falcons have a “strong roster” around their new quarterback.

The chatbot also believes the Buccaneers and Panthers will be in the mix for the division title. It called Tampa Bay “consistently solid” while lauding Bryce Young‘s progress as allowing Carolina to stay in the mix.

Copilot was less optimistic about the Saints, who it believes are facing “a long-term rebuild.”

1. Seattle Seahawks: 13-4
2. Los Angeles Rams: 11-6
3. San Francisco 49ers: 10-7
4. Arizona Cardinals: 5-12

While many are projecting the Rams to overtake the Seahawks this season, Copilot is backing the reigning champions. The chatbot credited Mike Macdonald with “building one of football’s best defenses” but also praised Sean McVay for being one of the NFL’s best coaches.

Copilot also believes the 49ers are “dangerous” while it views the Cardinals as “several steps away from contention” after moving on from Kyler Murray during the offseason.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: NFL record projections 2026: AI makes win-loss picks for all 32 teams