New York Yankees @ Washington Nationals: Ryan Weathers vs. Carson Palmquist

At last we have arrived at the final series of the first half. In the Aaron Boone era we have generally been happy to see the All-Star break coming, and 2026 has been no different. The Yankees managed a split of their recent four-game battle with the Rays, for now their betters in the AL East. But the past month has seen a plethora of injuries, underperformance, and quite a bit of generally dull baseball.

It’s hard to believe this weekend series with the Washington Nationals will be dull. The young Nats, led by 34-year-old manager Blake Butera, ooze pure entertainment value. Their games are what a hockey fan might call ‘high-event’: they score a ton of runs while allowing just as many to come home. Their record entering this series is 48-46—a massive step forward from the Dave Martinez lame-duck period. Speaking candidly as a guy who was born in DC, readers, it warms my heart to see good vibes around that team again. Now let’s dive into this pitching matchup.

I saw a melodramatic post on Twitter—well, I wasn’t on Twitter, it was shown to me against my will—showing similarities in the recent performances of both the Yankees and Mets. That post labeled Ryan Weathers as a “failed pitching acquisition,” which caused me to roll my eyes and move on with my day. It is true that Weathers has been inconsistent in his first 17 starts, but his noisy ERA belies the fact that he has had plenty of dominant starts when he’s dialed in.

Now, when Weathers gets hit, he gets hit hard. xwOBAcon (expected weighted on-base average on contact) is a helpful little stat which shows just how hard pitchers get hit when hitters connect: his .425 xwOBAcon is a bottom-five-percent mark in MLB. At the same time, he has received little run support from his offense. The Yankees haven’t scored more than five runs in a game Weathers started since May 18th.

What makes the first point more worrisome: the Nationals have a 116 team wRC+ against lefty pitching, which ranks second-best in baseball behind the Cubs (117). Weathers will really have to thread a needle in DC tonight.

Carson Palmquist is a former Rockies draftee in 2022 who joined Washington after Colorado designated him for assignment in late May. Palmquist has appeared in four games, twice as the nominal starter, but has only thrown 6.1 innings in those combined appearances, allowing five runs on eight hits. In the last game he started, he served as an opener for Zack Littell, allowing four early runs in an eventual loss to the Pirates. That seems likely to be the Nats’ strategy again tonight.

Littell has had a rough year in Washington so far, pitching to an ERA just north of 5 this season. Struggles in April and June have overshadowed what was by all accounts a solid month of May in which he went 5-0 with a 2.35 ERA. His mop-up duty for Palmquist was quite strong though—he pitched six quality innings against Pittsburgh in that aforementioned loss.

With the southpaw Palmquist starting, Aaron Boone has opted to place Amed Rosario in the leadoff spot ahead of Ben Rice, shifting Trent Grisham to the three-hole. Paul Goldschmidt and Cody Bellinger will follow, with Jasson Domínguez getting bumped down to sixth. Jazz Chisholm, José Caballero, and Austin Wells make up the bottom of the order. Rice will DH; Goldschmidt plays first. Everyone else is playing where you’d expect.

How to watch

Location: Nationals Park — Washington, DC

First pitch: 6:45 pm ET

TV broadcast: YES, Nationals.TV

Radio broadcast: WFAN 660/101.9 FM, WADO 1280; WJFK 106.7 The Fan

Online stream: Gotham Sports App, MLB.tv (out-of-market only)

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