New York Yankees at San Diego Padres: Series Preview

While it started in infuriating fashion, the Yankees did end up beginning their west coast road trip with a series victory over the Angels. Sealing that victory took another annoying win in the finale on Wednesday, but a win’s a win. Now, the Yankees will head a little further south down the California coast.

Starting tonight, the Yankees are in San Diego for a series against the Padres. While they’re getting production from some different sources this year, the Dads are in a spot they’ve been in a lot in recent years: behind the Dodgers in the NL West, but competing for a playoff berth otherwise. As of today, they would currently be on the outside looking in, but they’re only a half game back behind their division rival Diamondbacks for the third NL Wild Card. Unlike the mess over the AL, you actually need a winning record for that spot too.

Both teams will have plenty to play for over the next couple nights, so let’s take a look at the expected pitching matchups for this weekend.

Friday: Max Fried vs. Walker Buehler (9:40 pm ET)

Fried made his return from the IL last Saturday against the Red Sox. He was okay, allowing one run in 3.2 innings, but also only went 3.2 innings on account on only just getting off the IL. Provided he doesn’t drop a poor outing, you’d think he’d go longer than that, but it’s still unlikely that he’ll be going 100+ pitches in this one, even if he’s excellent.

Buehler keeping the Yankees off the board for five innings in Game 3 of the 2024 World Series is probably on a lot of our minds, but that’s a long time in pitching years ago, and it’s even longer since he put in a genuinely good season. Not that the Yankees can’t get shutdown by a meh pitcher, but Buehler comes into this game with a 4.66 ERA and a 4.32 FIP in 131.1 innings.

Saturday: Carlos Rodón vs. Robbie Ray (7:15 pm ET)

In his last outing, Rodón was, well, Carlos Rodón. His numbers were hardly terrible, but he allowed a couple runs, and his tendency to get into deep counts too often ended up knocking him out in the fifth inning. The Yankees scoring zero runs in that outing was more the issue, but Rodón wasn’t dominant. Considering that Fried is going the day before and what we’ll get to for Sunday, they could really use him actually eating innings in this outing.

Ray beat Cole to the 2021 AL Cy Young Award and promptly had a couple average to below average years after that. He was good last year, making the All-Star Game, but he’s been genuinely very good. He was subject of a deadline trade that sent him to San Diego, and this will be his sixth start for the Padres. For the year, he has a 3.14 ERA. That being said, FIP doesn’t like him as much (4.64) as he does lead the league in walks issued. The Yankees’ offense may get some opportunities in that regard.

Sunday: TBD vs. Michael King (4:10 pm ET)

The Yankees have not confirmed who will go in the series finale, at least at time of writing. If we follow the order the rotation has been in, it would be Will Warren’s day. The Yankees have a day off before this series and on the Monday after it, so it’s not theoretically a situation where they need to call someone up to get an extra day to give everyone else a breather, but we’ll see what happens.

Going for San Diego will be an old friend in Michael King. A free agent last offseason, King re-upped with the Padres for one year with player options, and he’s been very good again, with a 3.11 ERA in 162 innings. It’s not as drastic as Ray, but King’s FIP is also higher than his ERA, as his 63 walks ding him a bit.