The 2026-27 NBA season is set to begin in October, and the Western Conference is stacked with competitive teams once again.
San Antonio wears the conference crown after reaching last season’s NBA Finals, but OKC is eager to snatch it back. Teams such as Denver, Minnesota and Houston are also in pursuit of that top spot.
Here are win total projections for each Western Conference team this season, courtesy of BetMGM, and whether I think they’ll surpass that number:
Who should OKC Thunder face on Opening Night, Christmas Day on 2026-27 NBA schedule?
: Over 60.5
2025-26 record: 64-18
Jalen Williams missed 49 games last season. Isaiah Hartenstein missed 35 games. Ajay Mitchell missed 25 games. And yet OKC finished atop the West with a 64-18 record. The Thunder will surely miss Lu Dort, Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins. But as long as it can stay healthy, OKC still has the star power and depth to be a 60-win team.
Prediction: 62-20
Can Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder reclaim the throne?
: Over 59.5
- 2025-26 record: 62-20
San Antonio is fresh off of a breakout season where it went 62-20 and reached the NBA Finals. It has a young core led by Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper that should only get better, and it added a veteran wing in Tobias Harris, who can provide shot creation. The Spurs remain one of the league’s biggest title contenders.
Prediction: 61-21
Over 49.5
- 2025-26 record: 54-28
Denver is still trying to re-sign restricted free agent Peyton Watson. Losing him would hurt, although there’s the possibility of the Nuggets at least getting something back in a sign-and-trade deal. Either way, the trio of Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon is still around. That’s enough to keep Denver in title talks.
Prediction: 53-29
Over 49.5
- 2025-26 record: 49-33
Minnesota shook things up this summer by acquiring LaMelo Ball, an electric scorer and playmaker who’ll form a dangerous duo with Anthony Edwards. Depth is now a concern, and so is frontcourt play with Julius Randle and Naz Reid no longer in the mix. But the Timberwolves should still have a strong defense and more scoring variety.
Prediction: 50-32
Over 47.5
- 2025-26 record: 52-30
Houston bolstered its backcourt with the return of Fred VanVleet and the acquisition of Marcus Smart. That’ll put less pressure on Reed Sheppard, who was thrusted into a large role last season. They’re also two former NBA champions who know how to close out games, which will take pressure off Kevin Durant.
Prediction: 50-32
Over 46.5
2025-26 record: 53-29
After watching LeBron James walk, Los Angeles retooled its roster. It added Walker Kessler, Quentin Grimes, Collin Sexton and Sandro Mamukelashvili, among others. It’s a bit concerning that the Lakers don’t have any standout point-of-attack defenders. But they have Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves, which is enough to be competitive.
Prediction: 47-35
Can Giannis Antetokounmpo lead Heat to title?
: Over 35.5
- 2025-26 record: 22-60
I think Utah will shatter its projected win total of 35.5 games. The Jazz has a talented backcourt duo of Keyonte George and Darryn Peterson. It has positional size with Lauri Markkanen, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Ace Bailey. And it has depth. Utah does lack experience, but that won’t stop it from having some regular-season success.
Prediction: 43-39
Over 34.5
- 2025-26 record: 26-56
Cooper Flagg had a high usage percentage last season on an injury-riddled Dallas team that wasn’t competing for anything. But life will be easier for him with Kyrie Irving healthy, and he’ll have two rim-running bigs in Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively. The Mavericks have the shot creation, size and defensive versatility to be in the Play-In hunt.
Enjoying this article? Support our work with a small crypto donation.Prediction: 42-40
Over 40.5
- 2025-26 record: 45-37
Phoenix surpassed expectations last season by going 45-37 and making the playoffs. It then added an athletic wing in Miles Bridges and an elite shooter in Luke Kennard. I have the Suns winning 42 games this time around, but that’s mostly because of how much the rest of the West improved. This will still be a tough team that grinds out wins.
Prediction: 42-40
Under 43.5
- 2025-26 record: 42-40
Damian Lillard is healthy, and Ja Morant is now in the mix as well. Portland has a ton of intriguing pieces, but it’ll be interesting to see how they fit together. That process could take some time, which is why I have the Trail Blazers winning 42 games again. But I do think that’ll be enough to make the Play-In and compete for a playoff spot.
Prediction: 42-40
Under 40.5
2025-26 record: 37-45
Golden State reportedly had big dreams of bringing LeBron James and Anthony Davis this summer to play alongside Stephen Curry, but that didn’t materialize. The Warriors are now essentially running it back after winning 37 games last season, and Jimmy Butler (torn ACL) is expected to miss significant time. That doesn’t give me much optimism.
Prediction: 34-48
Can AJ Dybantsa, Wizards make immediate noise?
: Over 28.5
- 2025-26 record: 42-40
The NBA’s investigation into the Clippers and Kawhi Leonard still hasn’t been resolved. But, assuming the trade that sent him to Toronto this summer ultimately gets finalized, Los Angeles will be in rebuilding mode. Darius Garland and Brandon Ingram will provide a few fun moments, but it won’t result in many wins.
Prediction: 31-51
Under 28.5
- 2025-26 record: 25-57
Memphis is also entering a new era after trading away Ja Morant, Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. This version could become Grit and Grind 2.0 with a physical frontcourt trio of Cameron Boozer, Zach Edey and Isaiah Stewart. But success won’t come overnight for the Grizzlies, who’ll likely finish near the bottom of the West this season.
Prediction: 21-61
Under 27.5
- 2025-26 record: 26-56
New Orleans opted to virtually stay put this summer despite going 26-56 last season. And since the rest of the West got better, that likely means the Pelicans will drop even further in the standings. They would’ve been better off gathering draft capital for players such as Trey Murphy III and Herbert Jones while still having the same end result.
Prediction: 21-61
Under 21.5
2025-26 record: 22-60
DeMar DeRozan has been bought out, Russell Westbrook is still in free agency and Domantas Sabonis’ future with the franchise is up in the air. Sacramento is clearly shifting focus to its youth with rookie guard Darius Acuff Jr. as its potential future face of the franchise. That’s cause for some excitement, but there will be growing pains this season.
Prediction: 16-66
How will OKC fill final roster spot following Lu Dort trade?
Justin Martinez covers the Thunder and NBA for The Oklahoman. Have a story idea for Justin? He can be reached at jmartinez@oklahoman.com or on X/Twitter at @Justintohoops. Sign up for the Thunder Sports Minute newsletter to access more NBA coverage. Support Justin’s work and that of other Oklahoman journalists by purchasing a digital subscription today at subscribe.oklahoman.com.
This article originally appeared on Oklahoman: NBA win-total predictions: How will OKC Thunder fare in Western Conference?
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