MLB wild-card race: Looking at the strength of schedule and remaining opponents for each AL and NL contender

Just six weeks remain in the 2026 MLB regular season. Six weeks stand between our current selves and the more entertained, more fulfilled, playoff-watching versions of ourselves. What a notion, what a joy! Still, much is left to be decided as far as which clubs get to participate in the October jamboree.

Strength of schedule, in MLB, is generally less relevant and meaningful than it is in the NFL or in college sports. With the new balanced calendar, every club plays every other club at least once. Plus, teams play their division rivals for four series per year instead of six, which evens things out over the long haul.

But at this point in the year, SOS emerges as a crucial character in our baseball lives. With the standings so bunched up, getting to play a discombobulated opponent can make the difference between an autumn trip to Cancun and an autumn trip to glory. The American League, at present, is a particular disaster-fest, with seven teams separated by just two games, fighting it out for the third wild-card spot. 

Frankly, the wild-card picture is a mess — one that, in the end, might be cleaned up by strength of schedule. Let’s take stock of what the regular season’s final six weeks have in store for the teams fighting for a spot in the wild-card field. (Note: Not included on this list are the Yankees, Red Sox and Cubs, who have comfortable holds on their wild-card spots entering play Tuesday.)

• Record entering play Tuesday: 61-64, tied for AL wild-card 3 

• Remaining SOS: .506 opponent winning percentage (10th-hardest in MLB)

Record entering play Tuesday: 61-64, tied for AL wild-card 3 

Remaining SOS: .506 opponent winning percentage (10th-hardest in MLB)

After a strong weekend in Tampa, the birds find themselves, somehow, tied atop this unseemly AL wild-card fiasco. Now they head home for a massive, six-game run against the Yankees and, once again, the Rays. From there, Baltimore will head out on a nine-game roadie, though one with a friendlier outlay of opponents: Cardinals, A’s, Rockies. After that, it’s all playoff contenders, plus the delightfully pesky New York Mets. This is easily the most difficult slate left among the AL wild-card hopefuls; Baltimore’s easiest remaining home series involve the Guardians and Blue Jays. If this team is going to make the playoffs, they’ll have to earn it.

• Record: 61-64, tied for AL wild-card 3

• Remaining SOS: .499 opponent winning percentage (13th-hardest in MLB)

Record: 61-64, tied for AL wild-card 3

Remaining SOS: .499 opponent winning percentage (13th-hardest in MLB)

Texas just dropped five of seven on the road against the bottom-feeding Angels and Athletics, so maybe strength of schedule isn’t relevant after all. The Rangers’ light run continues with home series against the suddenly-sputtering Nats and the always-sputtering Angels. Their season-ending tilt against the Twins could prove consequential in sorting out the postseason picture. Also of note: 22 of this club’s remaining 37 games are at home, the largest allocation among these teams. That’s particularly relevant, as the Rangers are playing .542 ball at Globe Life Field this year.

• Record: 61-64, tied for AL wild-card 3

• Remaining SOS: .493 opponent winning percentage (13th-easiest in MLB)

Record: 61-64, tied for AL wild-card 3

Remaining SOS: .493 opponent winning percentage (13th-easiest in MLB)

A gauntlet homestand looms on the horizon, with the Tigers set to welcome the Rays and Dodgers to Comerica next week. Then it’s 10 games in 10 days against the Twins and Guardians, the two other AL Central clubs gunning for a wild card while hoping to chase down the division-leading White Sox. If the division race remains close in late September, a four-game set in Chicago from Sept. 17 to 20 will be must-see TV. The Tigers finishing with six at home against the Nats and Pirates is quite a friendly finale.

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With six weeks left to play, strength of schedule becomes a major character in the wild-card race.

• Record: 61-65, half-game back of AL wild-card 3 

• Remaining SOS: .483 opponent winning percentage (sixth-easiest in MLB)

Record: 61-65, half-game back of AL wild-card 3 

Remaining SOS: .483 opponent winning percentage (sixth-easiest in MLB)

From Aug. 28 to Sept. 13, the Twinkies have a critical stretch of 15 straight games against the White Sox, Tigers and Guardians. Sadly for the people of the Twin Cities, they’re all done playing the Royals. A West Coast roadswing in the final week will take the Twins to Anaheim and San Francisco before that trio of home games against Texas to finish things off. The Yankees also come to town at one point, which, given the history of those franchises, won’t be music to Minnesota’s ears. This schedule is harder than it looks, particularly with so many high-tension division games.

• Record: 61-65, half-game back of AL wild-card 3 

• Remaining SOS: .480 opponent winning percentage (third-easiest in MLB)

Record: 61-65, half-game back of AL wild-card 3 

Remaining SOS: .480 opponent winning percentage (third-easiest in MLB)

Six left against the Royals? Sure! This is an impressively easy slate considering the Jays generally have a tough go of it in the AL East. A nine-game trip in early September to Cleveland, Kansas City and Sacramento presents a great opportunity to rack up wins. Toronto will need to be strong on the road, too, with 21 of its remaining 36 away from Rogers Centre. Finishing the season with a three-game set against an up-the-creek Reds team will be quite an odd way to wrap things up.

• Record: 60-65, one game back of AL wild-card 3

• Remaining SOS: .453 opponent winning percentage (easiest in MLB)

Record: 60-65, one game back of AL wild-card 3

Remaining SOS: .453 opponent winning percentage (easiest in MLB)

With a schedule softer than a newborn baby, Cleveland has the easiest remaining slate by a country mile. This alley-oop of opponents begins Tuesday, with a 12-game run against the Giants, Rockies, Angels and Royals, four of the five worst teams in the sport. Cleveland then has four consecutive series against other AL wild-card dreamers: home against Toronto and Detroit, away against Baltimore and Minnesota. It’s a fascinatingly light last six weeks, which significantly elevates Cleveland’s postseason chances.

• Record: 59-66, two games back of AL wild-card 3 

• Remaining SOS: 471 opponent winning percentage (second-easiest in MLB)

Record: 59-66, two games back of AL wild-card 3 

Remaining SOS: 471 opponent winning percentage (second-easiest in MLB)

The Mariners are currently grinding through a preposterously tough stretch including three at home vs. the Rays, three each at the Yankees, Astros and Brewers, and a six-game homestand against the Cubs and Phillies. That’s six straight matchups against playoff teams. After that, though, the M’s have an exceedingly friendly September that features seven against the A’s, six against the Angels and three against the Rockies. That’s part of why Seattle, despite having the worst record among this AL wild-card group, has the highest postseason odds on FanGraphs.

• Record: 68-58, holding NL wild-card 2, one game up on NL wild-card 3 

• Remaining SOS: .522 opponent winning percentage (fifth-hardest in MLB)

Record: 68-58, holding NL wild-card 2, one game up on NL wild-card 3 

Remaining SOS: .522 opponent winning percentage (fifth-hardest in MLB)

The playoffs start early for the Phillies, who complete the year with six at home against Milwaukee and Tampa Bay. They also have two ominous sojourns to tackle. First, there’s a West Coast swing to Seattle, Anaheim and Arizona. Then there’s a trip with fewer miles but more familiar faces: Atlanta, Washington, Queens. The Phils have been strong away from Citizens Bank all season, so don’t expect this road-hardened, experienced group to fray from all the travel.

• Record: 67-59, holding NL wild-card 3 

• Remaining SOS: .496 opponent winning percentage (14th-hardest in MLB)

Record: 67-59, holding NL wild-card 3 

Remaining SOS: .496 opponent winning percentage (14th-hardest in MLB)

The Dodgers have certainly looked catchable of late, but the eight-game gap between L.A. and San Diego is probably too much for the Padres to claw back over the final six weeks. That’s even truer considering they have only one series left against the two-time defending champs, with three at Chavez Ravine during the season’s final week. After that could come the ultimate decider: a series at home against the Diamondbacks that might determine the final NL postseason participant.

• Record: 66-60, one game back of NL wild-card 3 

• Remaining SOS: 492 opponent winning percentage (12th-easiest in MLB)

Record: 66-60, one game back of NL wild-card 3 

Remaining SOS: 492 opponent winning percentage (12th-easiest in MLB)

The ins and outs of Arizona’s remaining schedule are significantly less important than the club remedying the Ketel Marte situation. The Snakes need Marte healthy, happy and at his best if they’re to have any chance of playing postseason baseball, so getting that very odd, very concerning saga sorted matters much more than any homestand or road trip. Having said that, Arizona’s remaining slate is pretty straightforward, with some toughies (Yankees, Cubs, Phillies) and some cushions (Royals, Reds, Rockies).

• Record: 64-62, 3 games back of NL wild-card 3 

• Remaining SOS: .523 opponent winning percentage (fourth-hardest in MLB)

Record: 64-62, 3 games back of NL wild-card 3 

Remaining SOS: .523 opponent winning percentage (fourth-hardest in MLB)

If the Fish are going to shock the baseball world, they’ll have to earn it. Miami has six left against the Cubs, three against the Dodgers, three against the Braves and three against the Red Sox. Oh, and the frisky Mets come to town, surely intent on avenging last season’s gut-wrenching, playoff-ruining final weekend in Miami. One piece of good fortune for the Marlins: They have sets left against all three of the clubs ahead of them in the wild-card race.
Cardinals

• Record: 64-62, three games back of NL wild-card 3 

• Remaining SOS: .492 opponent winning percentage (10th-easiest in MLB)

Record: 64-62, three games back of NL wild-card 3 

Remaining SOS: .492 opponent winning percentage (10th-easiest in MLB)

If the Cards were in the American League, they’d have a comfortable hold on the third wild card. Unfortunately for them, they play in the National League, and so playoff baseball might be just out of reach this season. However, the Cardinals’ sneaky easy remaining schedule might make things interesting. They still have six left against the Giants, six left against the unraveling Pirates, three against the Nats and three against the Rockies. It’s a lot of road games (21 of 36), but St. Louis has a chance to go on a little run in September if it can survive series in Philly and L.A.