The MLB best home run bets have been a disaster in the second half. Friday wasn’t an exception to the rough second half, as neither Brandon Lowe nor Yordan Alvarez hit a home run.
While home run props are long-shot wagers, and the betting record won’t be aesthetically pleasing, the season’s 21-86 record, with three no-bets, is disappointing. More importantly, anyone who bet $100 on each of the home run bets has lost $346. Frankly, the outcome is a disappointment, but there’s still time to generate a profit on the year with a few winning wagers.
Fortunately, two young sluggers have eye-catching home run props, with compelling odds. Both players can hit homers on Saturday, and if they do, the second-half slump will be washed away.
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+475) at Hard Rock Bet
Esmerlyn Valdez hit 13 home runs in 237 plate appearances in Triple-A this year, and his power has translated to 16 homers in 269 plate appearances in his first taste of the Majors for the Pirates. The 22-year-old outfielder has hit nine of his 16 home runs in 103 plate appearances against left-handed pitching, nine in 128 at home and four in 52 at home against southpaws.
Valdez also has high-quality batted-ball data. Among 384 hitters with at least 100 batted-ball events this season, Valdez ranks tied for 12th in barrels per plate appearance rate (9.3%), third in barrels per batted-ball event rate (19.8%), tied for 36th in hard-hit rate (48.4%), tied for 32nd in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (96.2 mph), tied for 77th in maximum exit velocity (112.7 mph), tied for 117th in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (35.7%) and tied for 57th in launch-angle steepness (18.4 degrees).
Valdez can put his home-run power on display tonight against Yusei Kikuchi. The 35-year-old lefty has allowed seven home runs at 1.47 home runs allowed per nine innings (HR/9) in nine starts this year.
He has permitted precisely two homers in back-to-back starts since returning from the injured list (IL). Furthermore, Kikuchi has allowed six of his seven home runs to right-handed batters, five on the road and four on the road to righties.
Valdez can make Kikuchi his latest lefty victim and take him yard for a home run today at sweet +475 odds at Hard Rock Bet, but even his +450 odds offered at the more widely available FanDuel Sportsbook are tasty.
Jac Caglianone has pristine batted-ball data and an outstanding opportunity to hit a homer against a fly-ball pitcher tonight.
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+402) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Jac Caglianone has launched 23 home runs in 509 plate appearances in 2026, hitting 16 against righties, 12 at home and 10 at home against right-handed pitching. He has also hit eight homers in the second half, including six in August. The slugger isn’t slowing down to end the season.
He also has pristine batted-ball data. Among 243 qualified batters in 2026, Caglianone is tied for 10th in barrels per plate appearance rate (9.3%), tied for 20th in barrels per batted-ball event rate (13.9%), seventh in hard-hit rate (55.9%), sixth in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (97.8 mph), 12th in maximum exit velocity (116.1 mph) and tied for 122nd in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (33.9%).
Caglianone’s 8.0-degree launch angle leaves something to be desired. Fortunately, Max Scherzer has allowed a 23.4-degree launch angle, 54.8% fly-ball rate, 47.9% pull rate and seven homers to 161 left-handed batters in 2026. The 42-year-old righty has coughed up a dozen home runs in 13 starts this season.
Scherzer’s propensity to serve up fly balls is ideal for Caglianone to hit a home run, and his +402 odds to homer are superb.
This article was originally published on Forbes.com
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