Sports

Levi Sterling: The Underappreciated Pittsburgh Pirates Prospect Breakout

Nairavoice · Oct 9, 2026 · 3 min read

The Pittsburgh Pirates had multiple top prospects break out this year. Seth Hernandez, Murf Gray, and Wyatt Sanford stand out as the best. However, one of the Pirates’ 2024 early-round picks took a noticeable step forward, even if his overall performance didn’t fully reflect it. Right-hander Levi Sterling looks to be one of the Pirates’ next best pitching prospects after an extremely promising 2026.

Sterling’s Surface Numbers Don’t Tell The Whole Story

On the surface, Sterling’s numbers are relatively pedestrian. In 108 2/3 innings, most of them at A-Ball Bradenton, the young right-hander posted a 4.56 ERA, 4.89 FIP, and 1.18 WHIP. He had a quality 28.9% K rate, with a respectable 10% walk rate. Sterling did struggle to limit the long ball, posting a 1.41 HR/9.

Sterling posted solid under-the-hood numbers in Bradenton, where he threw 96 innings this year. He induced a 28.2% whiff rate while holding opponents to a 5.8% barrel rate. His 18.5% K-BB rate was the 13th-best among any A-ball pitcher who threw at least 80 innings at that level. For reference, the average K-BB rate at A-Ball this year was only 12.6%. He was also one of only 14 A-Ball pitchers with at least a 25% K rate and a BB rate of 10% or lower in 80+ innings of work.

Sterling’s Stuff Took a Step Forward in 2026

Sterling’s primary pitch is his two-seam sinker, which sat 92-93 MPH, with nearly 20 inches of drop (18.7) and 15 inches of armside run. But it is far from the only pitch he threw. He mixed in two breaking balls at almost equal intervals. His mid-80s slider induced a 34.2% whiff rate, and his low-80s curveball had over 50 inches of vertical drop and a 40.5% whiff rate.

Although Sterling used his four-seam fastball only 5.9% of the time, he showed some impressive characteristics with it. His four-seamer sat 94-95 MPH, and he topped out at 97.4 MPH at Bradenton. Another thing worth mentioning: according to Baseball America, Sterling gained 3.6 MPH in velocity from last year.

His fastball has plenty of movement. Sterling averaged out at 16.4 inches of induced vertical break, but just over a foot of arm-side run. Not only is that about average velocity and IVB for a four-seam fastball at the MLB level, but he also throws the pitch with nearly five more inches of horizontal break than the average MLB four-seamer (4.6 more inches, to be exact).

Levi Sterling is all gas, no breaks. ⛽️

5.0 IP | 9 K https://t.co/ZWbtsZYK3d

— Young Bucs (@YoungBucsPIT) September 3, 2026

Sterling rounds out his pitch mix with an upper-80s cutter and a mid-to-upper-80s change-up. His change-up also stood out for the amount of arm-side run he put on the pitch at 17.4 inches. For reference, the average arm-side run on a change-up in MLB is 14.2 inches for a right-handed pitcher. Only 23 MLB pitchers threw at least 100 change-ups with at least 17 inches of horizontal break. However, like his fastball, he used his change-up less than 10% of the time (5.8%).

Sterling’s release point also adds some deception to his stuff. His 6.5 feet of extension is slightly better than average, which adds a slight amount of perceived velocity to his pitches. His vertical release point comes in at 5.57 feet. That’s what Pirates’ reliever Gregory Soto‘s vertical release point sat at in 2026, which is about a 34-35 degree arm angle.

Sterling’s Prospect Ranking

Sterling ranks as a top 20 prospect in the Pirates’ system. MLB Pipeline puts him at , while Baseball America puts him at . He stands at 6’5″, 202 pounds, and only just turned 20 at the start of September. Given his age, size, and the progress he has already made, he could become one of the Pirates’ best prospects within the next year.

Sterling’s 2026 may not get the attention he deserves because of the lack of quality results overall, but there is plenty to like about him heading into the 2027 season. He is trending up significantly and is on his way to becoming a top-100 prospect in the near future.

Main Photo Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

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