LeBron James is a big favorite to join Steph Curry, Golden State Warriors at sportsbooks and prediction markets

News came on Tuesday afternoon that LeBron James wouldn’t be returning to the Los Angeles Lakers and that he would be entering free agency, per ESPN’s Shams Charania.

The NBA’s all-time scoring leader and four-time champion will have a new team for the 2026-27 season, but where will he play?

Sportsbooks and prediction markets both have one team as a heavy favorite: Stephen Curry‘s Golden State Warriors.

The Warriors are a -500 favorite (83% implied probability) to be James’ next team at DraftKings Sports, with LeBron’s hometown team — the Cleveland Cavaliers — the second favorite at +300. No other team had single-digit odds.

The Miami Heat (10-1) and San Antonio Spurs (20-1) had the next-best odds at DraftKings, followed by the New York Knicks, Dallas Mavericks and Detroit Pistons at 30-1.

Prediction market Kalshi opened a market on “LeBron James’ next team” back in January, and Cleveland had been the favorite for the vast majority of the time — until the odds flipped the evening of June 28, with Golden State moving to a 22% chance and Cleveland 20%.

Those odds shifted significantly this afternoon after Charania’s post on X, as Golden State now has a 62% chance to be James’ next team, with Cleveland at 27%, San Antonio at 7% and Miami at 6%.

NBA free agency negotiations begin at 6 p.m. ET today, although signings can’t be official until July 6.