Kingdom Keys: 3 Keys to a Chiefs victory over the Jets in Week 9

After opening the season with five consecutive victories, the Kansas City Chiefs return to Arrowhead Stadium riding a two-game losing streak.

The 20-3 loss to the Seattle Seahawks was a poor performance in all three phases. Kansas City’s offense responded with 399 total yards and 24 points against the Denver Broncos, but the defense surrendered a late touchdown in a 28-24 loss.

The Chiefs remain in the AFC West race and in contention for the AFC’s No. 1 seed, but they can no longer afford to lose games they are expected to win.

The New York Jets are only 2-6 and have lost three consecutive games, but they have remained competitive. Quarterback Geno Smith is coming off a 290-yard, two-touchdown performance in which the Jets scored a season-high 33 points.

Kansas City should win this game. To do so convincingly, it must accomplish these three things.

Offensive key: Restore the vertical passing game

Kansas City’s declining rushing production over the past two weeks has drawn plenty of discussion.

After averaging 6.3 yards per carry and rushing for 665 yards over his first five games, Kenneth Walker III has been held to 105 rushing yards on 35 carries over the last two. That is an average of only 3.0 yards per attempt.

Some of that decline can be attributed to offensive-line execution and opposing defenses adjusting to Kansas City’s running concepts. However, wide receiver Tyquan Thornton’s absence has also changed how defenses can play the Chiefs.

Thornton was Kansas City’s primary field-stretching receiver. Before dislocating his ankle against the Las Vegas Raiders, he caught 11 passes for 219 yards — nearly 20 yards per reception. His final catch was a 55-yard gain against Cover 0 that demonstrated exactly what he provided: a receiver capable of making defenses pay for crowding the line of scrimmage.

Walker still rushed for 128 yards against the Los Angeles Chargers after Thornton’s injury, so the receiver’s absence is not the only explanation for the recent struggles. But as teams have gained more film of the Thornton-less offense, they have become increasingly comfortable bringing safeties closer to the line and challenging Kansas City’s remaining receivers to win downfield.

Through seven games, approximately 90% of Patrick Mahomes’ throws have traveled fewer than 20 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. Only 24 of his 232 attempts were directed 20 or more yards downfield, per statchasers.com.

Kansas City does not need to throw deep on every possession. It must, however, prove that the threat exists.

Head coach Andy Reid should create opportunities through play-action, max protection and pre-snap motion. Xavier Worthy is the most obvious candidate to assume more of that vertical responsibility, but Rashee Rice, Jalen Royals and Cyrus Allen must also contribute.

The objective is not simply to complete one long pass. Kansas City needs to make New York’s safeties respect the possibility. If the Chiefs can connect on multiple passes of at least 20 yards, the Jets will be forced to defend more of the field.

That should create additional running room for Walker and restore the balance that powered Kansas City’s 5-0 start.

Defensive key: Sack Nation must return

Kansas City’s pass rush has not lived up to its nickname.

The Chiefs enter Week 9 with nine sacks, ranking 30th in the NFL. Their 3.6% defensive sack rate is among the league’s worst.

No player better represents those struggles than defensive tackle Chris Jones.

The self-proclaimed CEO of “Sack Nation” has recorded only half a sack, three quarterback hits and one tackle for loss through seven games. During the losses to Seattle and Denver, Jones failed to register a tackle, quarterback hit or pass breakup across 87 combined snaps.

Jones continues to command double teams, and his presence can create opportunities for teammates. But those opportunities only matter if someone capitalizes on them.

Defensive end George Karlaftis has been Kansas City’s most consistent pass rusher, but Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Ashton Gillotte, R. Mason Thomas, and the rest of the defensive front must win more one-on-one matchups.

Against Denver, the Chiefs pressured Bo Nix on only two of his 34 dropbacks—a 6% pressure rate, the lowest recorded by any NFL defense in a game this season.

The Jets present an ideal opportunity for the pass rush to get healthy. Smith has already been sacked 23 times, and New York ranks 26th in sack rate allowed at 9.62%.

Smith has otherwise played well, throwing 12 touchdowns against only three interceptions with a 104.5 passer rating. Kansas City cannot let him operate comfortably and push the ball downfield.

The defensive benchmark should be at least three sacks, with Jones directly contributing to one of them —either by recording it himself or forcing Smith into another defender.

This is the matchup in which Sack Nation needs to reappear.

X-factor: Win on third down

Third down will connect everything Kansas City wants to accomplish on Sunday.

Offensively, the Chiefs have converted 34 of their 85 third downs, exactly 40%. The Jets’ defense has allowed opponents to convert 41 of 100 attempts. That presents Kansas City with an opportunity to extend drives and wear down an injury-affected New York defensive front.

Mahomes cannot be asked to repeatedly rescue the offense on third-and-long. The Chiefs must use early-down runs, play-action passes, and quick completions to create manageable situations.

The goal should be to convert at least 45% of their third downs.

Defensively, Kansas City must get off the field.

The season-long numbers are respectable, with opponents converting 39.2% of their third-down attempts. But Seattle converted 11 of 16 third downs, including five situations requiring at least 9 yards. Those conversions let the Seahawks control the ball for nearly 36 minutes and limit Kansas City to only eight possessions.

New York’s offense has converted 37.6% of its third downs this season. That is below the league’s better offenses, but Smith’s experience and willingness to push the football vertically make him dangerous if Kansas City cannot generate pressure.

Third down is where Jones and the defensive line can change the game. A sack ends a possession, improves field position, and gives Mahomes another opportunity to attack a Jets defense allowing 23.5 points per game.

Kansas City needs to win third down on both sides by extending its own possessions and quickly ending New York’s.

The bottom line

The Chiefs should not need Patrick Mahomes to carry them through another four-quarter fight against a 2-6 opponent.

Kansas City must restore the deep-ball threat and force New York’s safeties away from the line of scrimmage. That will create more space for Kenneth Walker and prevent the offense from becoming predictable. Defensively, Chris Jones and Sack Nation must take advantage of an offensive line that has already allowed 23 sacks. On third down, the Chiefs must sustain their own drives while refusing to let the Jets control the clock.

If Kansas City can produce multiple explosive passes, record at least three sacks and win the third-down battle, it should not merely end its losing streak — it should do so convincingly.