Inside Greg Luca's AP Top 25 ballot: How to sort through the confounding middle tier

Three weeks into the college football season, AP Top 25 voters seem to at least agree on a solidified top seven.

Each school in that group – Texas, Georgia, Notre Dame, Ole Miss, Indiana, Miami and Ohio State – was voted no lower than 8th on any ballot. The drop in points from No. 7 Ohio State with 1,415 to No. 8 Alabama with 1,182 is by far the biggest cliff in the rankings.

Difference from AP poll results in parentheses

Then, the results start to get messy. Ten teams that cracked the top 25 were voted 15th or higher on at least one ballot, while also being ignored entirely by at least one voter.

Even the next 12 teams that didn’t make the top-25 cut had at least one believer rank them in the top 20.

For many of these teams, the challenge is figuring out which version is real. A school might look top-10 caliber one week, then the following game play like it has no business near the polls.

Through each week of my debut season with an AP Top 25 ballot, we’ll take you inside my thought process behind the picks, zooming in this week on the handling of some of the nation’s most polarized teams.

EUGENE, OR – SEPTEMBER 18: Oregon Ducks defensive back Jett Washington (24) reacts after a turnover during a college football game between the Oregon Ducks and Portland State Vikings on September 18, 2026 at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon. (Photo by Brian Murphy/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) (Icon Sportswire/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Finding the Ducks’ landing spot after last week’s 39-31 loss at Oklahoma State was a challenge, and this week’s merciless 84-0 rout of FCS opponent Portland State only clouds the picture.

The Ducks’ ruthless efficiency this week pushed them all the way up to No. 5 in SP+ and No. 9 in ESPN’s FPI, rewarding Oregon too much for a win that doesn’t reveal a lot.

Oregon still has all the talent that earned them the preseason No. 1 spot on my ballot, and I’m still giving them the benefit of the doubt with a No. 14 ranking, even as the issue of adjusting to new coordinators has become more glaring than expected.

Hopefully, this weekend’s showdown at USC provides some answers.

Tron Baker of the USC Trojans makes a reception during an NCAA FBS football game at SHI Stadium in Piscataway, United States, on September 19, 2026. (Photo by Dan Squicciarini/NurPhoto via Getty Images) (NurPhoto/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

Of course, the Trojans, too, have been confounding. Lincoln Riley was supposed to have his best and most talented team in his fifth year leading USC, but he finds himself still searching for a defensive breakthrough opposite yet another elite offense.

Some will write off Saturday’s 42-35 win at Rutgers as a product of a West Coast team having to fly to New York – a concern long reserved for the NFL before the Big Ten decided to expand beyond the borders of common sense.

But this is the same Rutgers team that two weeks ago lost 37-21 to UMass – an 0-12 bottom-feeder last season.

Surely, holding the Trojans to a higher standard is fair, and I dropped them to No. 19.

NORMAN, OKLAHOMA – SEPTEMBER 19: Linebacker Owen Heinecke and defensive lineman Danny Okoye of the Oklahoma Sooners sack quarterback Toa Fa’avae of the New Mexico Lobos for a loss of nine yards to the 49-yard line in the third quarter at Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium on September 19, 2026 in Norman, Oklahoma. Oklahoma won 14-6. (Photo by Brian Bahr/Getty Images) (Brian Bahr/Getty Images)

This looked like a year the Sooners might step forward. Quarterback John Mateer was back after battling injuries last season, and he was expected to benefit from improved skill players and offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle’s second-year bump.

But after dropping 51 points in an opening shutout win over UTEP, the offense has fallen flat, losing 17-10 at Michigan and scraping past New Mexico 14-6.

The ugly style of play can sometimes hurt in the polls, but Brent Venables remains an elite defensive coach, and the Sooners have another top-tier unit. The games won’t always be pretty, but Oklahoma will still win its fair share of rock fights, so I kept the Sooners ranked at No. 21.

COLLEGE STATION, TEXAS – SEPTEMBER 19: Marcel Reed of the Texas A&M Aggies rushes for a touchdown during the fourth quarter against the Kentucky Wildcats at Kyle Field on September 19, 2026 in College Station, Texas. (Photo by Zach Del Bello/Getty Images) (Zach Del Bello/Getty Images)

At this point, no one should be surprised that the residents of Aggieland are prone to panic. But despite some early hiccups, this is still a sturdy, talented team.

Texas A&M will have plenty of opportunities to build a playoff case against a grueling SEC schedule, starting as soon as next week with a trip to LSU. Former UTSA assistant Will Stein might turn out to have something good going at Kentucky, so perhaps Saturday’s 31-21 home loss won’t look as punishing by the end of the year.

The Aggies’ drop to No. 23 was too far for my taste, and I kept them at No. 17.