Inside Greg Luca's AP Top 25 ballot: How much should we rely on head-to-head results?

No. 5 Notre Dame is just one week removed from a 28-24 loss to No. 8 BYU.  

Even at home, No. 9 Kentucky could only hang around for a half against No. 10 Alabama, losing in a 45-17 rout. 

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Greg Luca’s AP Top 25 ballot 

Difference from poll results in parentheses 

1. Miami (0) 

2. Ohio State (0) 

3. Indiana (+1) 

4. Georgia (-1) 

5. Utah (+1) 

6. UCLA (+1) 

7. BYU (+1) 

8. Notre Dame (-3) 

9. Alabama (+1) 

10. Kentucky (-1) 

11. Texas (0) 

12. Ole Miss (0) 

13. LSU (+2) 

14. Tennessee (+2) 

15. Texas Tech (+2) 

16. Arizona (+6) 

17. Houston (+1) 

18. Wake Forest (-4) 

19. Northwestern (+1) 

20. Oklahoma State (+4) 

21. SMU (-2) 

22. Wisconsin (+3) 

23. Boise State (-3) 

24. New Mexico (+3) 

25. Missouri (-2) 

No. 17 Florida has wins against No. 11 Texas and No. 12 Ole Miss, but also lost in blowout fashion against No. 23 Missouri and unranked (but receiving votes) South Carolina. 

The SEC is a prime example of why head-to-head results can’t be a singular solution to sorting the AP Top 25 poll, as every week seems to bring more tangled and contradictory outcomes.  

Through each week of my debut season with an AP Top 25 ballot, we’ll take you inside my thought process behind the picks, looking this week at which head-to-head results were impossible to avoid, and which could be bypassed as part of a larger case.  

No. 8 BYU beat No. 5 Notre Dame 28-24 on Oct. 17 

The Fighting Irish have a solid argument for being ranked ahead of the Cougars. BYU had home-field advantage in a game that was just about dead even, coming down to a debatable no-call on a pass interference that could’ve given Notre Dame one more shot at the win. The Fighting Irish still hold superior rankings in most of the analytics and would probably be favored on a neutral field.  

But even after a 39-31 loss in two overtimes against UCF on Saturday, BYU’s resume remains solid. UCF is 4-3, but the losses are to top-25 caliber teams – current No. 18 Houston, current No. 24 Oklahoma State, and Pitt prior to the season-ending injury for star quarterback Mason Heintschel. 

On top of the win against Notre Dame, BYU has an early season victory against still-underrated No. 22 Arizona. Notre Dame’s only win of note came in the opener against Wisconsin, which is now ranked No. 25.  

Notre Dame is probably better than BYU, but the resumes were close enough that the Cougars’ head-to-head win should be decisive. I ranked BYU No. 7, with Notre Dame at No. 8.  

No. 2 Ohio State beat No. 4 Indiana 19-15 on Oct. 17 

Moving both of these teams down would be ideal. Ohio State is likely not the same team with quarterback Julian Sayin out indefinitely, and Indiana quarterback Josh Hoover looked far from 100% in an ugly 13-6 overtime win at Michigan on Saturday.   

But the national conversation has reached “Is anybody actually good?” territory in record time this year, and few teams have a great case to jump above this duo.  

Georgia and Notre Dame both lost their most recent game. Utah and UCLA are fun stories, but a move up to No. 2 feels premature. BYU had to slide down after losing to UCF, so that leaves Kentucky and the crew of two-loss SEC teams, which all spend too much time beating each other up to merit top-five consideration.  

I defaulted back to the Buckeyes at No. 2, respecting that Ohio State is No. 1 in SP+ efficiency and holds road wins against Indiana and Iowa. I put the Hoosiers at No. 3, as a favorable schedule and the prospect of Hoover’s improved health give Indiana a strong shot at finishing the regular season 11-1.

No. 10 Alabama beat No. 9 Kentucky 45-17 on Sept. 12 

Kentucky is No. 1 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, surging to a surprising perch atop the SEC with a 5-1 mark in the league. The analytics have been slower to come around on the Wildcats, as they sit No. 32 in SP+ and No. 20 in adjusted EPA per play. Overtime wins against South Carolina and LSU look a lot better in the standings than the down-by-down metrics.  

Alabama has a worse record, holding losses to Georgia and Tennessee, but the Tide have been more dominant in wins, sitting No. 7 in SP+ and No. 8 in adjusted EPA per play. 

With a case for both sides, I let Alabama’s dominant head-to-head win serve as a decider, slotting the Crimson Tide No. 9 with the Wildcats at No. 10.  

The rest of the SEC logjam 

Kentucky’s record and Alabama’s analytics put them a notch ahead, but that still leaves six two-loss SEC teams to sort through.  

Texas had the best weekend of any team in that group, seemingly getting back on track with a 34-27 win against Ole Miss. And that Ole Miss team should probably still be ranked ahead of LSU on the strength of the Rebels’ 32-24 win in their head-to-head meeting on Sept. 19. Worth noting, however, is the sturdy statistical profile the Tigers have built by routing most of their opponents this season, sitting No. 1 in adjusted EPA per play and No. 4 in SP+.  

I had Texas at No. 11, Ole Miss at No. 12 and LSU at No. 13, slotting Tennessee in at No. 14. The Volunteers have an argument to be higher based on last week’s win against the Crimson Tide, but they’ve also lost to Texas and South Carolina as they continue to look for answers in the passing game.  

Though some put Missouri and Florida in this neighborhood, I had the Tigers at No. 25, with the Gators just a spot or two outside my rankings. Both teams have proven capable of suffering blowout losses the way the other ranked SEC teams haven’t, and that inconsistency keeps them a step behind.  

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This article originally published at Inside Greg Luca’s AP Top 25 ballot: How much should we rely on head-to-head results?.