Hundreds more offenders to leave jail on Tuesday

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At least 1,350 offenders have been released from jail early since 1 October under the scheme

Around 650 more offenders will leave jails in England and Wales on Tuesday in the third phase of the government’s plan to end the prison population crisis.

The group will include offenders serving up to three years and two months for their crimes.

Under the new rules, they are leaving jail after serving no more than a third of their sentence behind bars, rather than a half.

At least 1,350 offenders have left jail early since 1 October under the first two waves of the scheme.

By the end of the year officials project that at least 2,500 will have been let out to spend two-thirds of their sentence on a licence in the community.

Tuesday’s third stage continues the process of releasing batches of offenders serving increasingly long sentences – culminating next June with those serving more than 12 years.

The cohort will include people convicted of affray, which has a maximum sentence of three years, burglary and fraud.

Some violent offenders convicted of wounding, grievous bodily harm with intent or lower-end firearms charges could also be released.

Offenders convicted of one of more than 70 offences are exempt from the earlier release scheme, including manslaughter, rape, sexual and grooming offences and those on life terms.

Weekly prison population statistics show that the early release programme is having an impact – for now – on the population crisis inside jails.

On Monday the latest release of weekly data showed there were 86,982 people in jail, with enough spare spaces to take in 2,076 additional offenders if needs be.

That is 500 more cells available at any one time than was the case on the eve of the programme beginning in October.

Victims’ groups and survivors have also raised concerns. Refuge, which supports survivors of domestic abuse, told the BBC last month that perpetrators of such abuse were among those being released.

Typically, those being released should expect to be electronically tagged and subject to other monitoring conditions for the second third of their sentence.

Once outside, they will be monitored by probation officers, who are responsible for trying to make sure that offenders take part in courses or other programmes to turn around their lives – and also that they keep to their licence conditions, which can include bans on entering certain areas and contacting victims.

The government has not yet published any figures for the rate of recall of prisoners to jails for breaching their licence conditions.

The most up to date statistics show that just 12,338 offenders were sent back to jail for breaching their terms between April and June. That was 12% higher than the year before but a decrease on the first three months of the year.

Rehabilitation experts say that the recalls are often more likely to be linked to the offender failing to keep to appointments or living at a specific address. Around a fifth of recalls are for a new offence.

Napo, the probation service union, has previously said the releases have put enormous strain on its members who are charged with monitoring the offenders in the community.

Its members have been balloted over recent weeks on potential strike action over pay and conditions – and the result of that poll is expected on Friday.

The government has offered probation officers a 5% pay rise by the Ministry of Justice, while it had demanded 12% as part of a plan to make up for loss of earnings caused by cuts from 2010.

The Ministry of Justice says the offer is fair and has been accepted by two other unions and is twinned with a £700m investment in probation to recruit 1,300 extra officers and the roll-out of AI tools to cut the workload of monitoring offenders.

Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has previously criticised the scheme, saying she was “worried about dangerous people being let out on the street when they haven’t served their sentence, haven’t been rehabilitated”.

An early release programme introduced by the Conservatives saw more than 10,000 prisoners freed early between October 2023 and September 2024.

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