Sports

How White Sox Can Trade Luis Castillo for an Elite Pitching Upgrade

Nairavoice · Oct 27, 2026 · 4 min read

The Chicago White Sox front office is currently in a difficult position as they have to decide what to do about Luis Castillo. The situation looks difficult, as Castillo was acquired at the trade deadline to add experience to the pitching staff and guide an emerging young rotation in the postseason; instead, the 33-year-old posted an 8.42 ERA across the final stretch of Chicago’s 2026 regular season and was demoted to the bullpen before landing on the injured list. He was not part of the roster for the postseason, as Will Venable doesn’t seem to trust him, and the Sox are likely not going to be depending on him next season.

‎So, what should be the best move for the White Sox concerning Castillo? Castillo has one more year of control entering 2027, and it’s not cheap. The White Sox owe him $24 million, and there’s a vesting option for $25 million for 2028 that vests with 180 innings pitched in 2027.

The conventional move for White Sox would be to hope for a Spring Training bounce-back. The analytical move would be to eat 50% to 60% of his remaining salary in a trade and reallocate the saved money to upgrade the pitching staff by getting top-of-the-rotation starters. Should Chicago take the conventional move, they carry a huge financial burden and a player who will turn 34 next year and is likely to produce worse performance.

Why the White Sox Cannot Afford To Have Luis Castillo on the 2027 Roster

Luis Castillo was one of the best starting pitchers in the league in the early 2020’s. In fact, from 2020 to 2023, he posted an average 3.44 ERA in over 600 innings, which by any standard is top-level production. But he began to decline in 2024, posting a 3.64 ERA, and in 2025, a 3.54 ERA. Before the White Sox acquired him, he had a 5.06 ERA in 2026. What led to his significant decline was that his successful four-seam fastball velocity dropped, and his Vertical Approach Angle (VAA) flattened out and became inconsistent. A flat VAA reduces pitching velocity while increasing barrel-rate contact from the batter.

‎Also, Castillo’s WHIP increased to 1.49 in 2026 from 1.16 in 2024. What led to that was that his two-strike fastballs plummeted from 28.5% to 22%, while his strikeout rate took a downward swing from 24.3 % to 18.9%. Should Castillo remain on the White Sox roster in 2026, his value is expected to be around 0.2 WAR, and in current baseball economics, 1 WAR is valued between $8 million and $9 million. So, Castillo is projected to give the team less than the average WAR and will still collect $22.7 million (with a total salary cap of $24 million). That’s clearly near-zero production for nothing substantial, and it’s a silent killer.

‎However, there are arguments that he can get better during spring training or in personal training this winter. Of course, that’s possible, but Castillo’s decline didn’t start in 2026; it began in 2024, and he’s getting older. Betting on him to get better only limits the White Sox WAR potential in 2027 and the front office’s search for a better strategy to get rid of him.

The Math on How the White Sox Can Get Rid of Castillo

If the White Sox keep Castillo, they pay over $22 million. But what if the front office decides to eat 55% of the salary and trade Castillo to a lower-budget team looking to reclaim a pitcher? So, the Sox can eat $12 million and trade Castillo for $10 million, saving some cash which can be used to acquire another player and, more importantly, to clear a spot for a young, high-upside starter on a pre-arbitration contract. With that $10 million in net savings, the White Sox can add $4 to $5 million and get a quality mid-rotation free-agent starter like Nick Martinez or Michael King.

‎So, instead of keeping Castillo and paying him $22 million for a projected 0.2 WAR (having had -1.5 this season), a mid-rotation starter and internal starters (Sean Burke, Davis Martin, Hagen Smith, and Noah Schultz) will increase the projected production from 3.5 to 5.0 WAR for $26-27 million.

That’s expensive, but not unreasonable. Besides that, keeping an underperforming veteran will block top prospects and will not help to balance the books. General manager Chris Getz made a mistake by betting on Castillo, but mistakes happen in sports, so he has to find better financial flexibility to get rid of him. But there aren’t many better ways to do it because of Castillo’s contract, and there’s not much assurance that he will improve next season.

Main Photo Credit: William Purnell-Imagn Images

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