Have the Astros found their 8th inning guy?

I usually don’t do this, but a thought occurred to me when we started having the debate over Joe Espada and his managing. I was accused of not bringing facts to the debate. The good news is that we may have found the answer to one of the problems we have developed when Bryan Abreu forgot how to pitch. The Astros have plenty of lefty support, but the punch from the right side is a little more anemic. Enter AJ Blubaugh.

The official numbers would tell you he has pitched in 32 games and thrown 51.2 innings with an ERA at 3.66. Most people are encouraged overall by his performance, but would not look at that as someone that should be trusted in the 8th inning. However, there are always numbers inside the numbers. One of the developments on the season has been the proliferation of multiple inning relief outings. It’s as if we took the DeLorean back to 1977. Of Blubaugh’s 32 outings, 20 of them have been outings where he went into the dugout and then came out again for at least one other inning.

One of the nicknames I have given to Joe Espada is Joe “One inning too long” Espada. The Astros currently have a seven man bullpen. If we look at these relievers we can count the number of times that Espada has asked them to go more than one inning. That also doesn’t count the number of times they may retire the last hitter of an inning and go back out for another inning.

The ones above do not count any of the other pitchers that have pitched in the bullpen and been asked to go multiple innings. That included the likes of Ryan Weiss, Kai Wai Teng, Colton Bolton, and Colton Gordon. Suffice it to say, Espada has used relievers for multiple innings more than any manager in baseball and he has done it more often with Blubaugh than any pitcher on the staff.

This is usually when the apologists come out and say, “but he had to in March and April because the starting rotation was awful.” That’s fair, but he is still doing it in May and June. This is also when some would say that it seems to be working. That’s where I would ask the question: is it really working? Let’s take a look at Blubaugh since he seems to be the favorite target for this strategy.

Now, to be perfectly fair, there were two outings where Blubaugh got lit up in April and those outings are skewing the results some. In one outing, he officially pitched only one inning because he could not record an out when he went out for the second inning. He gave up five runs there. In another outing he gave up four runs in two innings. Thus is part of the problem with looking at relief pitching. Individual results can skew the findings some and they tend to skew them in the direction of the point I am making.

His ERA in those multiple inning outings drops to 2.43 when we remove those two disastrous outings. Unfortunately, we exist in the real world where we cannot afford to simply throw out results we don’t like. We can look at these numbers in a different way. If a relief pitcher’s job is to hold the opposing team where they are, then we can look at the percentage of times that a pitcher throws zeroes. That way, one run or five runs ends up counting the same.

Stop the count. Of course, someone that is perceptive would point out that it is more difficult to throw zeroes when you have to do it for multiple innings. You don’t say. As a mathematical strategy, it is usually better to go with the fresh arm than it is to stretch a guy another inning. There is a ton of adrenaline that gets used to get through an inning and that is particularly true if you are entering the game with runners on base. There is a reason why 99 percent of managers aren’t asking Goose Gossage to get the last nine outs of the game anymore.

The good news is that if we look at these numbers objectively then we might be liable to say that the Astros may have found their eighth inning guy. It may not be completely wise to turn the reigns over to him in the middle of a pennant race completely, but they certainly should start moving in the direction of giving him one inning outings later in games.

The bigger picture is a managerial one. We trap ourselves into thinking we have to do something. We have to keep pitching these guys multiple innings even when it is isn’t the most effective strategy. It’s a hamster wheel you struggle to get off of. I know this is a radical suggestion but when you start playing guys when they are generally more successful and you can do that more often than not then your team gets better. I haven’t crunched the numbers on the other relievers, but it would not surprise if we see similar results.

However, this team is on a heater and we should always return back to the good news. The good news is that with Josh Hader back in the fold, the rest of the bullpen can settle into some established roles. Bryan Abreu cannot be a part of the 8th inning plans anymore, but maybe Blubaugh can settle in as the righty half of a righty/lefty platoon with Bryan King. You could do far worse according to the numbers.