Go for it or not? Dave Aranda's 2-point decision that led to Baylor's loss to Auburn won't lose him his job, but he's running out of time regardless

ATLANTA — Whenever Baylor has to make the ultimate call on Dave Aranda, it is unlikely to be clear-cut. He is too competent to crater and too well-liked to author his own demise, working at a school that would prefer not to buy out a football coach unless it has to. 

But it is not a secret, least of all to Aranda, that his seventh season will be defined by decisions: The little ones he makes every week, followed by the big one his employer must render. 

After the first of 12 data points is now in the rear-view mirror, it’s imperative to start thinking about the question that can bring some of these fine margins into leader focus: How much credit does a coach get for doing the right thing but getting the wrong result? 

Though perhaps not every fan would agree, you’d be hard-pressed to find anyone within the Baylor program who disagreed with Aranda’s decision to go for two and a victory over Auburn on Saturday night after his quarterback, DJ Lagway, fought through an ankle sprain and threw a touchdown pass with nine seconds remaining. 

Analytically, it was the right call. Emotionally, it was a risk worth taking. Practically, it was a no-brainer. 

“There was no hesitation,” Aranda said. “The book said to go for it, but it wasn’t so much that. We had so many guys that were just doing everything they can to try to push through and close the game out. I just didn’t feel playing longer was going to benefit us.

In the end, no matter how the season turns out, there will always be a what-if attached to Auburn 17, Baylor 16. The two-point play that offensive coordinator Jake Spavital worked. Lagway made the throw, tight end Matthew Klopfenstein caught the ball and had what seemed to be a path to the end zone. 

He just couldn’t get there before Auburn safety Eric Winters wrapped him in a textbook tackle, getting him on the ground a mere inches from the goal line. 

“I thought he was in,” Aranda said. “You hear the call, you know what the play is, you’re watching for it and you see it. I’m thinking it’s points. For it not to be just sucks.”

Five years ago, Aranda was on the opposite side of a similar play in a much more significant moment. In the 2021 Big 12 championship game, with just seconds to play, Oklahoma State had a fourth-down play at the 1-yard line to win the game. Running back Dezmon Jackson had what seemed to be a sure touchdown running for the corner of the end zone but felt the pressure from behind, reached for the pylon and came up tantalizingly short. 

At that moment, Aranda’s career seemed like a rocket ship. In his second year as a head coach, he had won a conference title, followed by beating Ole Miss in the Sugar Bowl. If anything, Baylor would’ve been concerned that he might end up getting lured back to a place like LSU, where he won a national title as defensive coordinator. 

But since then, Aranda has posted three losing seasons in four years. Some of the issues were of his own making. Others, like Baylor ranking in the lower-tier of NIL spending in the Big 12, have been institutional obstacles. 

The bottom line, though, is Baylor’s attendance has cratered and there have not been enough quality wins to secure his future. Last November, in the midst of losing five out of six to end the season and athletic director Mack Rhoades resigning due to personal issues, Baylor announced that Aranda would return so that a new athletic director could come in and assess the football program.

That new athletic director is Doug McNamee, who previously worked at Baylor and left to work for Magnolia, the company founded by Chip and Joanna Gaines, who are among the school’s biggest benefactors. 

From now until the end of the season, taking the temperature of Baylor’s key stakeholders is the reality McNamee will live every day. It’s hard to imagine that a game like Saturday makes the picture any clearer. 

Yes, Baylor fought hard, had an outstanding defensive gameplan to bottle up Auburn’s offense and made one clutch play after another on the 75-yard drive that gave the Bears a chance to win it with a two-point conversion. To go for it in that moment, knowing the stakes, knowing the fragility of his tenure, is the kind of coaching that shows the courage of his convictions. 

“We had nothing in our mind but next play,” said receiver Gavin Freeman, who caught on fourth-and-goal from the 5-yard line. “No matter what happens, just keep going. I have faith in my guys and we all had faith going forward because that’s what we do in practice. That’s what we practice all the time is winning the game.”

But is that enough when it doesn’t work? 

As much as you can commend Aranda for almost getting off to an ideal start in a make-or-break year, this was a game Baylor should not have lost. 

When you have 436 offensive yards, you should score more than 16 points. When your defense forces three turnovers, you should capitalize. When you leave points on the board by missing a 42-yard field goal, then calling an ill-fated fourth down play in the third quarter instead of a 33-yard field goal in a game you lost by a single point, can you really say the head coach had a good day? 

“Mistakes. That’s why we lost,” Aranda said. “That’s what I told the team. Early in the game there’s too many opportunities we had to finish drives, to put points on the board, and we didn’t do it. I take the credit for that. I should have done a better job of coaching that. More games are lost than won especially early in the season and I could’ve communicated that better because I think we contributed to that tonight.”

As always, Aranda was forthright, cerebral and emotionally even-keeled. It’s part of what makes him hard to get your arms around. He is not a natural salesman, and Baylor’s fan base has largely registered its vote on him last year with all the empty seats in McLane Stadium.

Baylor played with heart and grit Saturday, but Aranda can only change their minds by winning. Making the right call or coming close — even inches short — won’t be good enough.