Giants Sunday mailbag

A few weeks ago, I put out a call for San Francisco Giants mailbag questions. Then both life and the Giants got hectic and, well … it’s been a few weeks, hasn’t it?

But the Giants have the ultra-rare Sunday off-day today, offering us one of the scariest things in all of sports: a Sunday that features neither baseball nor football. How do people live like this?

Anyway, seems as good a time as any to finally answer those questions. Thanks to everyone for the interesting and insightful questions that were posed!

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Thompson for 3
What can/will the organization do (if anything) this offseason to help repair the effect the Pride Night fiasco had on many of us?

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Thompson for 3
What can/will the organization do (if anything) this offseason to help repair the effect the Pride Night fiasco had on many of us?

For starters, I recommend reading our own Sami Higgins’ recent piece, When the team you love won’t even tolerate you. How Sami — who will be stepping away from covering the team after this season because of the team’s bigotry — is feeling is fairly critical to my point.

I don’t think the Giants should try to repair the situation because I don’t think the Giants can repair the situation. They have lost fans; a lot of fans. Some will come back with time, regardless of what the team does. Some will come back with time, presuming there’s an appropriate change in behavior. And some will never come back, no matter what the team does.

That’s the reality, and those are the repercussions you face when you make such a catastrophic unforced error. And as such, I believe the primary focus should be on creating a more inclusive environment for the fans and employees that are still there, and the ones that will be there in the future. You can’t put together a glass after you’ve dropped it and shattered it into a thousand pieces; all you can do is take the necessary steps to not drop another one.

Which, to be clear, doesn’t mean neglecting the lost fans. I just think that, in order for behavior to actually change, and in order for an apology to actually be honest, you need to be comfortable with that apology not being accepted. Or being accepted but not forgiven. The Giants lost a huge amount of both fans and public grace, and if they actually care about the LGBTQIA+ community, they’ll look forward to how they can be an asset and an ally to that community going forward, rather than spending all their energy apologizing for the past.

But it does start with an apology. A big one. The organization still has not actually taken any level of accountability for what happened, only done the meekest of “I’m sorry if that hurt you” pseudo-apologies.

So, apologize. And then, critically, affirm the organization’s stance, while making it abundantly clear that support of the queer community is not because of marketing opportunities. Work with local organizations. And then, when next June rolls around, have a proper Pride Night free from distractions and bigotry … or, at the very least, with the celebration of the queer community being much, much, much louder.

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CurryfromDeep
Who is your pick to start in left field on opening day next year?

CurryfromDeep
Who is your pick to start in left field on opening day next year?

Well, I’m taking the field, that’s for damn sure!

There are too many plausible options to count. Honestly, everyone playing the outfield on the active roster right now is a decent enough guess. Turner Hill has been really impressing, and does everything the organization wants out of an outfielder. Drew Gilbert and Jonah Cox look poised to form a center field platoon next year, but one of them could end up getting a chunk of playing time in left. Grant McCray is a few good at-bats and a strong Spring Training away from being in the mix. Hell, even Jung Hoo Lee could slide over to left to allow one of the better defenders, like Gilbert or Cox, to play in right.

Then there’s Victor Bericoto, who, had it not been for an injury, would have had a chance to run with the job for a while and make a strong impression. But he did impress during his time in the Majors this year, and will get a long look in Spring Training (if there is a Spring Training, that is).

Bo Davidson, Scott Bandura, and Parks Harber are all tearing it up in AAA. And that’s before we get to free agency and the trade market. Hell, Heliot Ramos has struggled so much in the Bronx that maybe he gets non-tendered and re-signs with the Giants (yes, that’s a joke).

I don’t think there’s a single player who I would give a better than 10% chance of being the left fielder on March 25, should we be lucky enough to have baseball then.

But you asked me to make a pick, not to explain why making a pick is so difficult, and my pick is none of the 10 names that I just mentioned. I’m going, instead, with Casey Schmitt. It’s clear from his performance this year that Schmitt will be an everyday player for the Giants next season, unless he’s traded for pitching depth. He wasn’t a great left fielder, but he was plenty competent there, and I think the Giants would be fine sticking him out there again. In a perfect world, I think Schmitt is the easy answer, but in the actual world we still have no idea what Marcelo Mayer looks like and we don’t know if Willy Adames will be healthy by Opening Day. And if there’s a hole in the infield, Schmitt won’t be in the outfield.

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Pumping Irons
Who are the Giants likely to protect in the Rule 5?

Pumping Irons
Who are the Giants likely to protect in the Rule 5?

Well, since this question was first posed, the answer got a little bit easier. I was surely going to talk a fair amount about Matt “Tugboat” Wilkinson, Yunior Marte, and Turner Hill; but in the weeks since this question was asked, all three were added to the 40-man roster, which presumably tells us that the organization planned to protect them.

There’s only one player that I think is an absolute lock to be protected: outfielder Bo Davidson. Even when he was struggling in AAA, Davidson was an automatic protection. Teams just don’t leave top-10 prospects who are in AAA unprotected, nor should they. And then Davidson caught fire in AAA and, well … what’s more of a lock than an absolute lock? At this point the only question regarding Davidson and the 40-man roster is whether he’ll be on it before this season ends or not.

They have too many outfielders, but I still strongly suspect they’ll protect Scott Bandura. His hot streak in AAA has lasted two months now, and when you hit as well as he has (.880 OPS, 131 wRC+) while playing all over the outfield and being a lefty, well … that decision makes itself. Bandura may not be a blue chip prospect, but he does things the Giants either value (he has just a 14.6% strikeout rate) or claim to value (he’s stolen 32 bases between AA and AAA this year). As the team has shown this year, you can never have enough outfield options, even though it’s hard to carry them all through the offseason. Bandura is the perfect fifth/sixth outfielder to provide depth in AAA, come up to the Majors when there’s an injury, and hopefully turn an opportunity into a job.

Left-handed pitcher Joe Whitman is one of the more interesting decisions. He hasn’t been particularly good in AAA, but he’s a lefty with draft pedigree who has shown a lot of signs, and was arguably the best pitcher in the AA Eastern League before his promotion. All of that points to an automatic protection, but the fact that the Giants turned to both Wilkinson and Marte without rostering Whitman might suggest that the team isn’t yet sure about it.

Perhaps the most fascinating decision is left-hander Henry Lalane. On the one hand, Lalane, a 6’7 southpaw who came over in the Heliot Ramos trade, is only seven starts into his High-A tenure, and those aren’t usually players you need to protect. On the other hand, he’s one of the top pitching prospects in the organization, was thoroughly dominant in Low-A, and it’s not inconceivable to think he could jump straight into an MLB bullpen. And the Giants are surely scarred by last year’s Spencer Miles incident.

Those are really the big four, now that Wilkinson, Marte, and Hill have been promoted. I’ll say they protect Davidson, Bandura, and Lalane.

Other names of note: AAA lefty Cesar Perdomo, who I think is kind of in the same class as Whitman and Wilkinson, but with less name recognition; AAA second baseman Diego Velasquez, who could play a role in the Majors next year, but isn’t enough of an impact player to be selected; righty Josh Bostick, who probably would have needed protection had he not lost the entire year to injury after playing last year in High-A, and who could work his way into the fold if he’s healthy enough to pitch in the AFL; and High-A relievers Gerelmi Maldonado, Marty Gair, and Liam Simon, who all have the Miles-esque electricity, but I think are raw enough that the Giants don’t need to worry about them.

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Lyle
If you had to put money on it, do you think Flora makes his MLB debut before July 2028, or after? I’m leaning before.

Lyle
If you had to put money on it, do you think Flora makes his MLB debut before July 2028, or after? I’m leaning before.

What a great question, Lyle. Let’s look at a little historical precedent, yeah? July, 2028, would be two years after Jackson Flora was selected fourth overall. So let’s see when other collegiate pitchers taken in the top 10 of the draft debuted…

2024 had two NCAA pitchers in the top 10: Chase Burns (No. 2) and Hagen Smith (No. 5). Burns debuted just 11 months after being drafted, while Smith debuted earlier this month, just missing the two-year mark.

In 2023, there were three such players: Paul Skenes (No. 1), Rhett Lowder (No. 7), and Chase Dollander (No. 9). Skenes nearly made the Opening Day roster, and debuted 10 months after being drafted. Lowder also debuted in his first full season, 13 months after draft day. And Dollander debuted in April of the next year, 21 months after being selected.

So, removing context, recent history suggests that Flora is more likely to debut before, than after July 2028. And the context only furthers that belief, as the Giants have proven this year to have a fairly heavy hand with MLB debuts. I’m joining you and predicting before.

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tgtbtrue15
Do you feel like Bader has played his last game with the Giants? If yes, who is the best internal option to replace him?

tgtbtrue15
Do you feel like Bader has played his last game with the Giants? If yes, who is the best internal option to replace him?

Yes, I think it is highly, highly, highly likely that Harrison Bader has suited up in a Giants jersey for the final time. We know that Buster Posey doesn’t mess around with players who are unprofessional (or at least this particular brand of unprofessional), so the combination of Bader making the mistake he made and, reportedly, not cooperating with the organization about what exactly happened, all but guarantees that his time is done. Add in the extremely poor performance and, well, yeah. That ship has sailed.

I think it will be a Drew Gilbert/Jonah Cox platoon next year. That’s the best internal option until someone proves otherwise, especially now that the Giants have moved Bo Davidson off of center field. And I think an internal option is the right choice, too … whatever money they do have should go to pitchers.

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DJ Tofu
Among the guys currently with the Giants, who will be in the starting rotation when the 2027 season begins?

DJ Tofu
Among the guys currently with the Giants, who will be in the starting rotation when the 2027 season begins?

Well, this proved to be a cursed question, as Carson Whisenhunt and Adrian Houser were both injured since the query was first posed.

Logan Webb and Landen Roupp are locks for the rotation, assuming neither is traded. Roupp has certainly been uninspiring for a few months now, but he’s a pre-arbitration pitcher with a 3.73 FIP on a team with limited options and an even less limited interest in spending money on pitchers.

Honestly, I kind of think Houser ends up back in the rotation to start the year if he’s able to avoid Tommy John surgery. We should have an update soon. So, I think the rotation is Webb, Roupp, Houser, one outside signing/trade acquisition, and then a competition between Blade Tidwell, Matt Wilkinson, Yunior Marte, Cesar Perdomo, and Joe Whitman. And I’ll give Tidwell the nod there.

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Mikey_Starbeams
Which top prospects are closest to making it to the big league roster next year?

Who’s gonna need to be protected from the Rule V draft?

Mikey_Starbeams
Which top prospects are closest to making it to the big league roster next year?

Who’s gonna need to be protected from the Rule V draft?

We already covered the second question, but the first one is interesting. And also very difficult to answer with this front office … Mays knows I never would have listed Jonah Cox or Yunior Marte as among the 50 most likely Giants prospects to debut this year, and that’s without getting to Drew Cavanaugh or Seth Lonsway.

Barring injury, we’ll almost certainly see Bo Davidson and Parks Harber in the Majors next year. That pair is probably closest to making next year’s roster, but I don’t think Scott Bandura is far behind them. And given what we know of how the Giants use pitching prospects, Joe Whitman and Cesar Perdomo aren’t far behind, either.

Diego Velasquez probably gets to the Majors next year, maybe even on the earlier side. The Giants have some serious winter cleaning to do with the 40-man roster to accommodate acquisitions and Rule 5 protections, and that spells bad news for a few, if not all, of Christian Koss, Osleivis Basabe, Shay Whitcomb, and Nate Furman. Thinning the backup infield corps is necessary, and opens the door for Velasquez. We’ve also seen how many catchers teams need — who had the Giants reuniting with Andrew Knizner or (however briefly) promoting Zach Morgan on their bingo card? — and Adrián Sugastey is fitting in well in AAA while playing excellent defense.

As for the non-AAA players … I think Gavin Kilen has a very strong chance of debuting next season. He’s impressed in AA, he’s polished and has a high floor, and we know Tony Vitello loves him. And with the growing injury histories for Willy Adames, Marcelo Mayer, and Casey Schmitt, there will likely be a place for him. Jacob Bresnahan just got promoted to AA, too, so he could end the year in San Francisco.

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Candlestix
Will the Giants sign more than one viable starter and one potential closer in the off season?

Candlestix
Will the Giants sign more than one viable starter and one potential closer in the off season?

They definitely might sign more than one viable starter. I’d say you or I have as good a chance as being the closer next year as a big free agent signing, though.

The Giants just aren’t going to spend big money on the bullpen. And, in their defense, they shouldn’t. Their issue this year was not that they didn’t sign Edwin Díaz or Devin Williams, but that they brought in a shockingly small and uninteresting crop of Minor League free agents and waiver claims.

Another thing that would help the bullpen? The other thing you mentioned: multiple viable starters! The more starters get displaced to the bullpen, the better the bullpen is. That said, if Adrian Houser avoids Tommy John, I kind of think San Francisco only adds one starter this offseason.

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Candlestix
Should the Giants re-sign and bring back Robbie Ray to bolster starting staff?

Candlestix
Should the Giants re-sign and bring back Robbie Ray to bolster starting staff?

It’s certainly not the worst idea, but probably not the best idea, either. Ray feels like a bubble waiting to burst: he has an awesome ERA this year, but his FIP, expected ERA, and expected FIP are all fairly awful, and he’s rocking his worst strikeout rate since his rookie season. He’s about to turn 35 and has Tommy John in his not-too-distant past.

He’d be a decent pickup for the back of the rotation, but I would be quite against the Giants signing him for a large amount of money, or to have him be the No. 2 or 3 starter.

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dangerismycat
In light of the Pride Night debacle, piss-poor performance this season (and hella mid-ness for almost a decade), baffling “management”, etc — when do you think we can get psyched on the MLB team again?

dangerismycat
In light of the Pride Night debacle, piss-poor performance this season (and hella mid-ness for almost a decade), baffling “management”, etc — when do you think we can get psyched on the MLB team again?

I think 2028 will be a very exciting year. Buster Posey will be entering Year 4 and Tony Vitello Year 3, which likely means that either A) they will have shown enough to give us optimism about them going forwards (exciting!), or B) they will have failed and been fired and replaced by people presumably better fit for the job (exciting!).

Most importantly, that’s when the exciting crop of young players should start to show up. 2028 should feature heavily some combination of Bo Davidson, Parks Harber, Jhonny Level, Dakota Jordan, Gavin Kilen, and Jackson Flora. The quintet of Flora, Miguel Mendez, Jacob Bresnahan, Ramon Marquez, and Henry Lalane will have hopefully paired with some of the older prospects (Yunior Marte, Tugboat Wilkinson, Blade Tidwell, Joe Whitman, and Cesar Perdomo) to create a rotation with a few young players that you’re excited about. And Josuar González will, Mays willing, be flying through the Minor Leagues and nearing a debut as the No. 1 prospect in baseball.

Now, that’s a rosy outlook. But after this year, I’m allowed to dream a little, right? We all deserve it.

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SonofaPitch
Since we actually don’t have any bonafide 60+ FV prospects in the farm system, wouldn’t that mean that it would take a lesser prospect significantly performing above expectations in order for us to develop our own stars/superstars or are we destined for more disappointment and overall mediocrity with just a few brighter lights? Who are the prospects who you see exceeding expectations and possibly becoming true superstars? How often do 50+ FV prospects actually become true stars? If not, will we once again be at the mercy of a front office needing to overpay to get those stars in other ways and choosing not to spend the big bucks? Tell me, oh baseball go, what’s the pathway to the stars?

SonofaPitch
Since we actually don’t have any bonafide 60+ FV prospects in the farm system, wouldn’t that mean that it would take a lesser prospect significantly performing above expectations in order for us to develop our own stars/superstars or are we destined for more disappointment and overall mediocrity with just a few brighter lights? Who are the prospects who you see exceeding expectations and possibly becoming true superstars? How often do 50+ FV prospects actually become true stars? If not, will we once again be at the mercy of a front office needing to overpay to get those stars in other ways and choosing not to spend the big bucks? Tell me, oh baseball go, what’s the pathway to the stars?

Wow! That’s a lot to unpack, but some fair concerns. On the one hand, I want to tell you to take a deep breath and stop Joe Paniking, because there’s a lot there that you don’t need to feel so negative about. On the other hand, the overall conclusion you reached is probably a fair one: you can’t ever count on the farm system. It’s one of the funniest things about baseball: you have to build a team through an entirely unreliable system.

But there are a lot of things here to tackle. First, the claim of the team lacking a 60+ FV prospect. It really depends on where you’re looking, which is why all prospect rankings should be taken with a grain of salt. Fangraphs doesn’t give the Giants any 60FV prospects, but MLB Pipeline slaps a 60 on Josuar González, while Baseball America gives both González and Luis Hernández a 65 in their “BA Grade” (with a lower “adjusted grade”).

Second, the Giants — who undoubtedly have one of the best farm systems in baseball right now — have the bulk of their talent in the lower Minors. Players in the lower Minors inherently have lower grades, not because they have less potential, but because that potential is countered by more risk. Fangraphs, which is always a little stingier with high grades, has just nine players given a 60FV or higher. Three of those nine are in the Majors, two are in AAA, and two are in AA. The only two players that aren’t in the upper Minors or Majors are Eli Willits and Seth Hernandez, High-A stars taken first and sixth, respectively, in the 2025 draft.

This year’s No. 1 pick, Roch Choloswsky, viewed by most as better at the time of being drafted than Willits was? He’s a 55, because that’s about the highest you’ll ever see a Fangraphs rank a prospect who was just drafted.

The point I’m trying to make is that if you’re a 50-55 FV prospect in rookie ball, Low-A, or High-A, you almost always have 60-65 grade talent and 30-35 grade risk, for lack of more industry-accurate terms. It’s why you hear prospects say about González, if he keeps this up he’ll be a top-5 prospect. Not, if you gets better, but if he keeps this up. The “low” grades on González, Hernández, Jhonny Level, and Jackson Flora are not an indictment of their talent, but rather an acknowledgement of their inherent risk.

You won’t meet a single prospect analyst who thinks González doesn’t have superstar potential. You just also won’t meet a single prospect analyst who thinks superstardom — or even stardom — is a given for a player in Low-A.

I’ll end on this: ultimately, every great MLB player dramatically exceeded expectations. That’s just the reality of it. If you win an MVP award, you greatly exceeded your prospect expectations, even if you were the No. 1 prospect. So seen through that lens, yes, the Giants will need prospects to go above and beyond the projections; but that makes them just like the other 29 teams.

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sachertorte
Giants have made a lot of trades in the last 13 months, and their farm system ranking shows it. But aside from that bounce, is there anything different happening in the farm system — administratively, financial investment, personnel, or otherwise – that makes you think that there is an identifiable improvement in how the organization is managing the farm system?

sachertorte
Giants have made a lot of trades in the last 13 months, and their farm system ranking shows it. But aside from that bounce, is there anything different happening in the farm system — administratively, financial investment, personnel, or otherwise – that makes you think that there is an identifiable improvement in how the organization is managing the farm system?

Great question. The simple answer is “no.” The farm system has made dramatic improvements, which is primarily due to two things: signing the best player in back-to-back international classes, which was agreed upon many years ago; and making a bunch of trades (and good ones, at that), which, it bears noting, is the direct result of failing at the Major League level.

Ultimately, I don’t see anything tangible going on developmentally to suggest they’ve taken huge strides there. That’s not a criticism, to be clear; these things are not easy to spot, and the new front office has been in place for less than two years. It will likely be a little while before we have any concrete data on how they’re developing prospects. But I’m certainly not aware of anything tangible, like a certain approach or investment, that represents an improvement over recent years.

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MrInteligint
This is probably a dumb question, but it seems like Vitello is playing to win, as opposed to protecting his big money stars like Adames and getting a good look at the prospects during the next 6 or 7 weeks. There’s a question in there somewhere….

MrInteligint
This is probably a dumb question, but it seems like Vitello is playing to win, as opposed to protecting his big money stars like Adames and getting a good look at the prospects during the next 6 or 7 weeks. There’s a question in there somewhere….

Definitely not a dumb question although, technically, not a question at all!

It’s a sticky situation, and one of the harder things for a new manager to handle. You can’t just not play your best players, especially when they’re so well compensated. And you want to develop a winning culture. But you also need to turn to the future.

I don’t envy Tony Vitello for having to balance it, but it’s also not something he’s done well. I’m particularly thinking of the game where he said the reason he took out Blade Tidwell was because they were chasing wins, but then left Drew Gilbert in to face Josh Hader with the game on the line. There have been a lot of such instances.

For better or for worse, injuries have forced Vitello to manage more with an eye towards the future. But you can’t really blame the man for trying to win games.

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Pumping Irons
Will the Giants move Landon Roupp [sic]?

Pumping Irons
Will the Giants move Landon Roupp [sic]?

Highly unlikely. The Giants are catastrophically thin in the rotation. Roupp is currently their clear No. 2 starter, even if he should be a No. 4 or No. 5.

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PoloFieldNeighbor
I’m curious about what the heck happened to Bader’s foot after he ran into the fire engine. Some reports said his foot was run over, which sounds horrible. Others say he flew to Indianapolis the next day to get it checked out, which makes it sound at least somewhat less serious than horrible. It’s a bit hard to square these reports. Since there are legal/pr issues involved for Bader and the Giants, it might be a long time before we learn anything more. Any idea how this is likely to play out?

PoloFieldNeighbor
I’m curious about what the heck happened to Bader’s foot after he ran into the fire engine. Some reports said his foot was run over, which sounds horrible. Others say he flew to Indianapolis the next day to get it checked out, which makes it sound at least somewhat less serious than horrible. It’s a bit hard to square these reports. Since there are legal/pr issues involved for Bader and the Giants, it might be a long time before we learn anything more. Any idea how this is likely to play out?

I don’t think it’s hard to square those reports. Harrison Bader had a scheduled trip to Indianapolis to have his plantar fasciitis checked out by a foot and ankle specialist. The day before, he further injured the foot in the scooter accident. He still went to Indianapolis to have a specialist check out the plantar fasciitis, only now the specialist also got to check out the reportedly-fractured foot. So I don’t think those particular reports need squaring.

Unfortunately, it seems we’ll never learn the whole story, as Bader is reportedly not cooperating with the Giants in revealing details. Perhaps they come out in court, if it comes to that.

As for how it plays out? The Giants probably hope that the foot is still injured come next season, which would make it much easier for them to void the contract. And if they’re unable to do that, I suspect they try to trade him and, if failing, just waive him. I don’t think he’ll be in Scottsdale next year, let alone San Francisco.

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Chris867
The Giants will host the 2028 All Star game. Let’s say Bryce Eldridge is one of our All Stars. If he hits a splash hit bomb, will it count as a official Giants splash hit? Thanks

Chris867
The Giants will host the 2028 All Star game. Let’s say Bryce Eldridge is one of our All Stars. If he hits a splash hit bomb, will it count as a official Giants splash hit? Thanks

What a great question. I’m not entirely sure, to be honest, but I believe the answer would be yes. The closest thing we have to historical precedent for this is 2002, when Barry Bonds hit a ball into the water during a postseason game against Chuck Finley. Postseason stats do not count on a player’s record, but the Giants did count it as a splash hit. Now, the All-Star Game is a bit different than the postseason, in that it’s an exhibition rather than a meaningful game, but I suspect it would count.

Thanks for the great questions, everyone!

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