FMDA forecasts 16.42% April inflation rate amid fuel, food prices surge

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By Yinka Kolawole

The Financial Market Dealers Association (FMDA) has projected Nigeria’s headline inflation rate to rise to 16.42 per cent year-on-year in April 2026, reversing months of steady moderation as rising food prices, higher energy costs and worsening global commodity conditions continue to pressure domestic prices.

According to the April 2026 Inflation Forecast report released by FMDA, the projected inflation figure represents an increase from the 15.38 per cent recorded in March 2026 and marks the first consecutive monthly acceleration in annual inflation since the middle of 2025.

The report noted that inflation had steadily declined from a peak of 27.35 per cent in March 2025 to 15.06 per cent in February 2026 before the recent upward trend emerged.

On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation is forecast at 2.78 per cent in April, lower than the 4.18 per cent recorded in March but still elevated compared to the broader disinflation trend witnessed in the second half of 2025.

FMDA attributed the projected increase largely to sustained pressure from food and energy prices, alongside tightening global commodity market conditions.

Average Premium Motor Spirit, PMS, prices rose to N1,322.50 in April from N1,208.38 in March, representing a 9.44 per cent increase. Although the pace of increase slowed compared to the 37.35 per cent jump recorded in March, the association noted that higher fuel prices continue to feed into transportation and production costs.

The domestic food price index also climbed to 3.69 points in April from 3.60 points in March, driven by increases in the prices of key staples. Yam recorded the highest increase at 3.98 per cent, while watermelon, maize, millet and sorghum also posted moderate price rises during the period.

Despite the inflationary pressures, FMDA said some developments could help moderate the overall impact. The naira appreciated by 1.36 per cent on average to N1,361.22 per dollar in April from N1,379.98 per dollar in March, while the pace of fuel price increases slowed.

The report, however, warned that worsening global commodity conditions could sustain inflationary pressures in the months ahead.

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