We’re four weeks into the season and rolling through the Shuffle Up series. This is how I would attack a position if I were drafting from scratch today. Everything that’s happened to this point is merely an audition — the idea is to skate to where the puck is headed, not where it’s been.
The salaries below are unscientific in nature and meant to show where talent clusters and drops off. Players at the same salary are considered even.
Use the Shuffle Up page to consider transactions, self-scout, work on trades, that sort of thing. It’s up to you.
Last week, we examined the quarterbacks. Today’s assignment is the tight ends.
Let’s be fair about Kittle’s 56-yard touchdown at the end of last week’s win over Denver — it was a win by design, a perfectly timed screen that allowed Kittle to rumble to the end zone unimpeded. But we also have to accept that Kittle doesn’t look anything like a player who blew out his Achilles back in January. Perhaps the basic actuarial rules don’t apply to Kittle, who’s still making 11.1 yards per target in his age-33 season.
I tiptoed around Kittle despite an affordable summer ADP, a major regret a month into the season. Perfectly schemed by Kyle Shanahan and well-matched with Brock Purdy, Kittle should show up on plenty of championship rosters this year. He probably won’t see Bowers or McBride-type volume, but the efficiency will make up for it.
Warren caught all five of his targets in Week 4, which makes you wonder why he wasn’t used more (when Laquon Treadwell and Ashton Dulin get more looks than Warren, something’s wrong). But Warren’s granular stats are similar to last year — his route rate is stable, his slot rate and first-read rates are only down slightly. I thought Warren could bump his production in the absence of Alec Pierce, while understanding their route trees are radically different. But Warren’s biggest problem right now is the Indianapolis play-calling. Let’s try to stay patient here, give head coach Shane Steichen the benefit of the doubt.
- $22 Tucker Kraft
- $21 Sam LaPorta
$20 Dalton Kincaid
$17 Harold Fannin Jr.
$16 Juwan Johnson
$16 Isaiah Likely
Johnson was undervalued all summer and even if his true value is closer to TE 7-10 than the current TE3 tag he holds, he’s going to be a profit player. It will be interesting to see how many targets he loses if and when Jordyn Tyson returns and is productive, but I have faith that Johnson will end the year close to last year’s counting stats, with an uptick in touchdowns (he’s already at three). Kellen Moore is a right answer on the play sheet, and Tyler Shough is good enough most weeks.
Fannin’s participation tree has all sorts of quirky signs through the first month. Although his route rate has risen from 66.0% to 78.4%, Fannin’s first-read rate has dropped by about 6% and his slot rate is down about 10%. Touchdown deodorant has been good to Fannin — all three of his red-zone targets have been end-zone targets, resulting in six points each time — and at least Deshaun Watson has played better than expected. It’s possible Fannin could actually improve in his second season but not fully show it in the stats, because rookies Denzel Boston and KC Concepcion are immediate target earners.
- $13 Colston Loveland
$11 Travis Kelce
$9 Kenyon Sadiq
$9 Brenton Strange
$8 Mark Andrews
$7 Hunter Henry
$7 Kyle Pitts Sr.
Enjoying this article? Support our work with a small crypto donation.$7 T.J. Hockenson
If you’re looking for Loveland optimism, at least his targets have risen each week, and Caleb Williams should return fairly soon. Loveland has also run unlucky with touchdowns — Williams missed him in the end zone in Week 1 and Loveland was tackled at the 1-yard line two weeks ago. The dominant target share Loveland showed at the end of last year hasn’t returned, so we can’t dream about the summer ceiling. But it’s too early to give up on him completely.
Pitts and Michael Penix Jr. have never shown much chemistry together, and that theme has continued the last two weeks. Pitts has run a route on just 52.2% of the dropbacks the last two weeks, and his first-read target share is a paltry 10.9%. Drake London’s fantasy season was saved by Penix’s return, and Brian Robinson Jr. has joined Bijan Robinson as a productive fantasy back. But Pitts is unlikely to join the party.
- $6 *Dallas Goedert
$6 Jake Ferguson
$6 Darren Waller
$5 Dalton Schultz
$4 Oronde Gadsden II
$4 AJ Barner
$3 *Terrance Ferguson
$3 Pat Freiermuth
$3 Mike Gesicki
$3 Chig Okonkwo
$3 Tyler Higbee
$3 Michael Mayer
The Chargers seemed to walk away from Gadsden a few weeks back, but now that Charlie Kolar and David Njoku are hurt, Gadsden is forced to be a regular player again. Eight Gadsden targets didn’t go far in Week 4 (just 5-36-0), but at least they’re trying. It’s also possible the Chargers won’t have a full-throttle Ladd McConkey at any point this year, which means we should leave a light on for Gadsden.
Normally Mayer would be unrosterable as the second best tight end on his own team, but Klint Kubiak might be creative enough to push two tight ends into fantasy value. It helps that the Raiders have a very ordinary WR room, and for as great as Bowers is, he also carries a significant injury risk. Mayer always looked like a future NFL star during his splashy career at Notre Dame, and perhaps the Raiders are finally ready to make him a primary player.
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