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Not even the tricky and tight Circuit de Monaco layout can slow down Kimi Antonelli.
F1’s hottest driver captured the pole in his maiden run in qualifying at the Monaco Grand Prix, setting himself up for a fifth straight win through six races on the season.
Antonelli edged Max Verstappen, who will start alongside him on the front row, with the Ferrari guys — Lewis Hamilton and hometown hero Charles Leclerc — starting third and fourth.
Continue reading for free Formula 1 predictions, free betting picks and Formula 1 odds for the Monaco Grand Prix on June 7.
🏁 Monaco Grand Prix predictions
PickDate
Win probability
Kimi AntonelliTo winJune 7-15060%
Charles LeclercTo podiumJune 7-11753.9%
📊 Monaco Grand Prix odds
Win probability Kimi Antonelli-15060%
Max Verstappen+27027% Lewis Hamilton+90010% Charles Leclerc+15676% George Russell+99001%
Lando Norris+99001% Oscar Piastri+99001%
Odds from Polymarket, one of our best F1 betting sites.
🏎️ Monaco Grand Prix picks
Race pick: Kimi Antonelli to win (-150)
I’m beginning to wonder if the 19-year-old Antonelli wanted to throw bettors off the scent when he called Ferrari the team to beat heading into Monaco.
Truth is, Antonelli has been, hands down, the best driver with the current best engine in F1, and grabbing the pole sets him up for a 5×5.
Passing is next to impossible through the streets of Monaco, so unless Verstappen sneaks out in front at race start, it’s up to Antonelli and his team to manage the lead, ensure the pit stops are crisp, and ride to a checkered flag.
Don’t be alarmed by his rough run through Europe last year: 19th at Emilia Romagna, 18th at Monaco, and 18th at Spain. He’s going to avenge one of those finishes this week
Prop pick: Charles Leclerc Podium Finish (-117)
Despite his struggles, Charles Leclerc is still getting -117 odds (currently) to find the podium.
There are good signs that his car is cut out to handle Monaco. He ran the fastest car in the opening practice session, and he was challenging for the pole before crashing in the final lap of qualifying.
He complained of braking issues on Saturday, the same ones that did him in at Montreal. Still, he did climb four spots from eighth to finish fourth at the Canadian GP.
If his team can workshop those brakes, I like him maneuvering through these narrow lanes and moving up one spot.
🧠 How I’m picking the Monaco Grand Prix
Known as the crown jewel of the F1 Circuit, the Circuit de Monaco is not the race you’re watching for dramatic passes and ripping straightaways.
At approximately 260km, Monaco is the shortest circuit on the calendar, and the oldest and most predictable.
It’s a race dictated by track position, as the modern width of the cars makes overtaking on these narrow streets nearly impossible under green-flag conditions.
That means qualifying is the most important part of the weekend, and it’s been borne out, as the pole sitter has won wire-to-wire in each of the last three races.
Antonelli (3) and Mercedes teammate George Russell (2) have captured each pole this season so far, and why my pick is Antonelli Sunday.
Weather shouldn’t be a factor, either: Saturday’s qualifying and Sunday’s race are forecast to be sunny with a gentle breeze and highs of 27°C.
📋 Monaco Grand Prix favorites
Charles Leclerc enters Monaco as the 33% favorite as he looks for his second win at his home race in the last three years. The Ferrari driver sits third in the Drivers’ Championship and knows that qualifying will likely determine his chances around a circuit where passing is notoriously difficult.
Lewis Hamilton is next at 17% and brings plenty of Monaco pedigree with three career victories. Championship leader Kimi Antonelli sits close behind at 16% after winning four of the first five races of the season, while George Russell (14%) and Lando Norris (12%) round out the top contenders. Expect these odds to shift significantly following qualifying.
🏆 Previous Monaco Grand Prix winners
DriverTeam2025Lando Norris McLaren2024Charles LcClerc Ferrari2023Max Verstappen Red Bull Racing2022Sergio Perez Red Bull Racing2021Max Verstappen Red Bull Racing2019Lewis Hamilton Mercedese2018Daniel Ricciardo Red Bull Racing2017Sebastian Vettel Ferrari2016Lewis Hamilton Mercedese2015Nico Rosberg Mercedese
❓ Monaco Grand Prix betting FAQs
Who is favored to win the Monaco Grand Prix?
Charles Leclerc enters the Monaco Grand Prix as the betting favorite after strong form and a proven track record on the streets of Monte Carlo.
When and where is the Monaco Grand Prix?
The Monaco Grand Prix takes place on Sunday, June 7, 2026, at the Circuit de Monaco in Monte Carlo.
How can I watch the Monaco Grand Prix?
Fans can watch the Monaco Grand Prix on ESPN in the United States, while F1 TV provides streaming coverage in supported regions.
Who won the Monaco Grand Prix in 2025?
Lando Norris claimed victory at the 2025 Monaco Grand Prix, earning his first career win in Monaco.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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