England must beware Mexico’s dangerman – but this wildcard could light up the Azteca

Amid the aura of a legendary venue, concerns over the altitude and a host nation whipped into a fervour over their biggest football match in decades – possibly ever – it has been easy to slip into focusing solely on the romance and the narrative since England football team sealed their path to Mexico City with Wednesday’s strung-out victory over DR Congo.

But for all of the noise and the expectation surrounding this game, and besides the best efforts of Mexican fans to find out where England are staying so they can ‘welcome’ them with the same fireworks and Mariachi bands that they welcomed the Ecuadoreans – leading to a formal complaint to FIFA – this is a match which will be won on the pitch.

For what it’s worth, concerns about all of the above are still valid. The altitude will play a factor, especially as England appear to have arrived in almost the worst window possible, 48 hours before kick-off. The aura of the Azteca is unmistakable and the atmosphere will play a part. The fans will be loud and proud and relentless.

What England must do is focus on their plan and where their match-ups with Javier Aguirre’s team give them a big advantage.

If you were to simply go through the team one-by-one then there is obviously something of a mismatch, but that isn’t how football is played. Mexico have certain areas of the pitch where they can be confident of causing England problems and the most obvious is Julian Quiñones up against whichever England right-back ends up starting.

Should Reece James recover then it would be a boon for Thomas Tuchel, but still a challenge with Quiñones quite easily Mexico’s most dangerous player. The Colombian-born forward turned down the country of his birth to play for Mexico, and after starring in Liga MX he has thrived in Saudi Arabia, where he was top scorer last season ahead of Cristiano Ronaldo, Karim Benzema and all the other big names who ended up taking the sort of offers you can’t turn down.

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Quiñones is a powerful runner, broad-shouldered and strong, with speed to scare defenders, and his preference is to cut inside onto his right foot to cause damage – as he did superbly with his goal against Ecuador. Veteran left-back Jesus Gallardo covers the flank behind him well to allow Quiñones to roam in attack, meaning he can pop up anywhere across the frontline.

Should Djed Spence get the nod for England, this will particularly be an area that Javier Aguirre looks to exploit but the channel between Ezri Konsa and the full-back is going to be tested whoever it is that plays.

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The other obvious dangerman for Mexico is Gilberto Mora. The Tijuana starlet would probably already be at one of the world’s biggest clubs if international transfers weren’t banned before 18 years of age. Represented by Rafaela Pimenta, the agent of Erling Haaland, the two questions left with Mora are whether he moves in January (he turns 18 in October) or next summer, and whether he takes an intermediate step like Haaland, signing for a club like Dortmund or Benfica, or just goes straight to one of the truly elite clubs.

Most advanced data models peg Mora as one of the two or three best under-18s on the planet, up there with Max Dowman, and so he is a real wildcard for Mexico. This could be his big moment, and if he can pop up from the 10 position with something magic to send the co-hosts through then it would go down in the legends of Mexican football. There is a non-zero chance that a star is truly born on Sunday night, and he’ll be draped in green.

Mora will attack the space behind Elliott Anderson and Declan Rice, keeping them honest. He likes to drift wide and connect with Piojo Alvarado, the hard-working right winger whose selfless legwork balances Quiñones’ second-striker instincts on the other flank. Anderson’s quickness in covering ground vs Mora’s darting runs will be one of the key battles of this game, while Nico O’Reilly will need Anderson’s support to avoid being double-teamed and overwhelmed in that zone.

On quality alone, the triumvirate of Anderson, Rice and Jude Bellingham should be able to dominate Erik Lira, Luis Romo and Mora in Mexico’s engine room but there are no guarantees. Romo and Lira are both midfielders who are also comfortable playing as a central defender in a back three, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Aguirre have his team drop into almost a 5-4-1 shape without the ball.

Lira is an impressive, tidy player who cleans up everything at the base of the midfield. He will get a much-deserved move to Europe this summer, but his greatest disadvantage is size, and Bellingham should seek to match up with the Cruz Azul man to make the most of his height and athleticism. At set pieces, England will undoubtedly hold an advantage over Mexico.

England’s best opportunity to hurt Mexico is going to come where the talent disparity is greatest. Cesar Montes and Johan Vazquez are fine central defenders but Harry Kane is Harry Kane. Right-back Jorge Sanchez of PAOK Salonika is probably the weakest link in the whole team, though who England choose to start on the left of their attack remains something of a mystery. Gallardo the veteran left-back is reliable but if Bukayo Saka starts ahead of Noni Madueke and performs to anything close to his level, this should be a mismatch too.

Tuchel has tried out different combinations of players, partly forced through injury, and has tweaked things in a minor way tactically to try and exploit the opposition, but if there’s one game where you want to surprise the opponent, this might be it.

It’s impossible to ignore the narratives and the history and the noise, but this is Tuchel’s biggest test so far as England coach. Let’s see if he has the answers to some fairly probing questions.